+SNfreak21 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 7:06 PM, Rjay said: The 0z wasn't PDII...it was a bomb that basically nailed people SE of i95 More like PDI in 1979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think this might be a wet/slop one. The interior could do great, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 7:14 PM, Chris L said: I think this might be a wet/slop one. The interior could do great, though. Nope This will be the Chris L storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 7:08 PM, +SNfreak21 said: More like PDI in 1979 Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 7:26 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Exactly. Better than the 12z GFS AND EURO! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GGEM says what storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 7:35 PM, YanksFan27 said: GGEM says what storm Translation: the modeling mayhem continues on unabated yanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 your latest WPC -Guesstimate? not a bad look at all ATM -imho http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 9:06 PM, Doorman said: your latest WPC -Guesstimate? not a bad look at all ATM -imho http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml This one is coming under and will wind up being DC to Boston , just a more classic look to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow that's quite an early transfer there. I would assume that track would make it ride up or hug the coast and give us more frozen than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This one definitely has a PD II vibe to it with the storm attacking the strong high to the NE. I could see it being a second rate version to that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 9:15 PM, SnoSki14 said: This one definitely has a PD II vibe to it with the storm attacking the strong high to the NE. I could see it being a second rate version to that storm.It certainly can but beating PDII no matter how you split is going to be a task. Theres a reason why its almost at the top, these storms are rarities. But i think this storm can make a run at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I believe if you are tracking this puppy,on a weather forum- you just may be pulling for that one bad azz system that knocks the snot out of us! way down, deep down inside.... admit it!!! yes, we know who you are http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html JUICY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Major changes on the GFS @ 114 hours compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 For the good or for the bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 9:42 PM, Snow88 said: Euro ensembles? Close to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 10:15 PM, bluewave said: Close to the OP. MSLP_North32America_192.gif im going with the EURO with this storm whether we snow or not. it seems to have the upper hand in the southern stream driven systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Better Split flow on the 18Z GFS through HR 150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Current Pac Sat with OPC surface map overlay the short wave energy pack that travels in will spawn from here http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l12®ion=we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18Z GFS @HR 186: Looks similar to the output for Wednesday's Storm, but slightly warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS does not look great for this storm....hopefully it changes but as of now it just strengthens and cuts way west. It looked better at first glance, but of course with this one there's still a week to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 10:30 PM, WintersGrasp said: GFS does not look great for this storm....hopefully it changes but as of now it just strengthens and cuts way westwhen doesn't the gfs overamplify systems well to the west? Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 10:32 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: when doesn't the gfs overamplify systems well to the west? Just sayin... using the GFS right now wouldn't be too smart. this outcome will change constantly till id say Monday/Tuesday when models start keying in on what to do with the Wednesday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its really much better looking than previous runs. Surface is below freezing through Sunday morning. At least .5" falls as snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 10:34 PM, REDMK6GLI said: using the GFS right now wouldn't be too smart. this outcome will change constantly till id say Monday/Tuesday when models start keying in on what to do with the Wednesday storm Lol yes true but aren't these storm-specific threads for discussing the model runs of the storm since it's not here yet? The GFS is one of the major models and most reliable (yes, one of the most reliable.....considering no model is very reliable right now except some of the short terms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 10:37 PM, WintersGrasp said: Lol yes true but aren't these storm-specific threads for discussing the model runs of the storm since it's not here yet? The GFS is one of the major models and most reliable (yes, one of the most reliable.....considering no model is very reliable right now except some of the short terms) absolutely nothing wrong with it. I just hope that no one starts hanging their hearts on one model run/suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 10:41 PM, REDMK6GLI said: absolutely nothing wrong with it. I just hope that no one starts hanging their hearts on one model run/suite If people haven't learned this by now, what after 2 jan snows and now look at mon....... We have a loong way to go here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I thought the gfs was starting to look pretty good. I'm not sure why it insists on hanging on to the primary for so long (same problem for Wednesday) ,but this is a huge major storm signal. The gfs is spitting out over 3" of QPF for these next three storms, and I think more than half of that could be frozen so that's 15-20" right there (add another 5-6" for those to the N&W). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 2/1/2014 at 10:55 PM, SnoSki14 said: I thought the gfs was starting to look pretty good. I'm not sure why it insists on hanging on to the primary for so long (same problem for Wednesday) ,but this is a huge major storm signal. The gfs is spitting out over 3" of QPF for these next three storms, and I think more than half of that could be frozen so that's 15-20" right there (add another 5-6" for those to the N&W). with a 1040HP over SE Canada a LP is going to find It insanely difficult to not starting to transfer to a coastal farther than southern OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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