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February 8-12 East Coast Storm Potential


REDMK6GLI

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Past few days models have been showing a pretty sizable low off the coast around febraury 8th. This storm has the POTENTIAL to bring some good snows from DC-BOSTON. At this time it is pretty far out but discussion for this possible event does seem warranted after the mid-weeks storm potential as the models are beating the drum for this period

One thing is for sure there will be no lack of moisture and also the cold air will be on the EC so we have a good starting point for this threat. Let the discussion begin folks.

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This morning both the 06Z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF were in pretty impressive agreemenr on this storm, especially for it being 240 hours out, but then I looked at the 00Z GFS to see if it was also agreeing and it had a completely different setup. So there is still a lot of work to be done here but I had thought about starting this thread this morning as well, glad I wasn't the only one thinking about it...now lets give this some time to develop and see what happens. 

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I love all the hype and storm possibilities coming up but I think we need to pump the brakes just a tad. With all the talk already about next weekend's storm you would think its 4-5 days away. I can't count how many times storms looked promising (maybe not quite this promising) 10 days out. Lets at least get through this weekend.

I'm as big of a weenie as the next person and I'm praying to anything that will listen that the storm happens as modeled. I've just seen the enormous letdown time and time again when we all get excited way to early.

Maybe my unusual apprehensive-ness will be a good luck charm for this storm.

Sent from my HTC ONE

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This morning both the 06Z GFS and the 00Z ECMWF were in pretty impressive agreemenr on this storm, especially for it being 240 hours out, but then I looked at the 00Z GFS to see if it was also agreeing and it had a completely different setup. So there is still a lot of work to be done here but I had thought about starting this thread this morning as well, glad I wasn't the only one thinking about it...now lets give this some time to develop and see what happens.

Pretty fair assumption i think. John posted the positive developments that would help this storm a good bit earlier. The february 5th storm creating a 50/50 block and also higher heights towards greenland would only add to threats legitimacy in my opinion. Models are going to be waffling a bit through the weekend so its best to relax like you said

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We're snow at hour 210. 850MB temps are -8 to -12. That's pretty close to ideal. Then they warm.

 

This system has the same problems as the one before it. However hour 216 is about as close to a PDII redux as you will ever see.

Hr 216 850s  - 7  surface around 20 

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The key is that huge Arctic high over New England that holds it's ground while energy cuts underneath.

Was more energetic out of the SE states 

 

So are you saying we switch to ice?

As per Euro at 228   CNJ coast 850`s  plus 2 surface 34 . Dont look at those details 9 days out , you will really drive urself nuts 

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