February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[ono]

I really loved that event for the rarity of it.  That was bizarre and dumped 12-24" on a straight SE moisture feed.

 

I really didn't like that event.  Was skiing Stowe, It rained my entire time.  Then the guy at the gas station in Waterbury told me that "Cars were off the road" in Burlington.  We hop on 89 south, and it starts to snow.  By the time I get home, it's 5 hours later and the reports are of pure dumpage.  Heartbreaking.  

[CoastalWx]

Pretty darn good overall agreement for 5 days out.

[Ginx snewx]

Pretty darn good overall agreement for 5 days out.

thumpidity dumper, man the low levels are cold

[powderfreak]

Pretty darn good overall agreement for 5 days out.

 

Yeah... though the GFS can stop going north now, lol. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah... though the GFS can stop going north now, lol. 

 

You are telling me..lol.  18z didn't change much. 

[powderfreak]

thumpidity dumper, man the low levels are cold

 

Yeah, but torching aloft... good sleet and zr profiles.  Looks like the warm layer at 750-800mb on the GFS moves in with H85 temps of -2C or so, if you want to try to judge by the H85 temps.

[CoastalWx]

With that low going souh hopefully the goal is 4" of cement left for a good pack. Build from there.

[dryslot]

Big thump where it stays all snow, This is the type of system that pretty much comes in as a wall of snow and stays that way through out the event

[powderfreak]

With that low going souh hopefully the goal is 4" of cement left for a good pack. Build from there.

 

GFS has something like 0.65" snow followed by 0.5" of IP/ZR at ORH.... that would be absolute concrete and wouldn't be melting anytime soon.

[dendrite]

10"+ and pretty much all snow here on this run. I have a feeling the levels above H85 will get warmer on runs going forward though considering those moisture anomalies. Any SE convection will just further enhance mid/upper level latent heating too.

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS has something like 0.65" snow followed by 0.5" of IP/ZR at ORH.... that would be absolute concrete and wouldn't be melting anytime soon.

Blah. Although I don't recall too many events where that happened here. Would be cool

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Starting to think the thump may not be that thumpy here, and it is probably going to get washed away by a good amount of rain

[Lava Rock]

This storm could be quite the mauler. From Chicago straight on over to NYC and BOS. Chicago has had one helluva winter. And then we get a follow up storm. When you see this kind of qpf modelled I think you just have to let go of every model run to some extent. I think CNE and NNE will get 3-4 ft of snow by Feb 15. And I don't think that is particularly bold. And SNE probably does almost as well.

I'll send you a 12 pack of your favorite beer if we get 4'by the 15th

[powderfreak]

Blah. Although I don't recall too many events where that happened here. Would be cool

Really? That seems like a standard juiced up SWFE...like most of the systems in 07-08. Except maybe not quite that much QPF, but a snow thump to sleet and freezing rain isn't all that uncommon is it?

[CoastalWx]

Starting to think the thump may not be that thumpy here, and it is probably going to get washed away by a good amount of rain

I bet you get at least 3-4". It's not like it will get to 55 and rain. At least right now. 34F rain isn't terrible. Hopefully it dryslots.

[CoastalWx]

That high is in a good spot too. I like it.

[dryslot]

That high is in a good spot too. I like it.

Yes that's what really saves us from this getting even further north

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I bet you get at least 3-4". It's not like it will get to 55 and rain. At least right now. 34F rain isn't terrible. Hopefully it dryslots.

I hope your right, were going to need that much to lock in some cement. And I was just going to mention that. If we could get ~4 inches of snow and dry slot, that would be ideal

[ORH_wxman]

Really? That seems like a standard juiced up SWFE...like most of the systems in 07-08. Except maybe not quite that much QPF, but a snow thump to sleet and freezing rain isn't all that uncommon is it?

 

 

Jan 28, 2009...Jan 18, 2011...Feb 2, 2011.

 

Those are the recent ones with a thump of snow followed by prolonged sleet and ZR....Jan 7-8, 2009 too I almost forgot.

 

 

12/16/07 didnt have much sleet or ZR at all...it was like 9 inches of snow followed by very brief sleet and a dryslot with freezing drizzle all afternoon and a light coating of glaze from that.

[dryslot]

12/16/07 was 10" here ending as drz

[HoarfrostHubb]

They had 0.5" of ZR? I guess if it is sleet, too that makes sense. Nice crust

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Really? That seems like a standard juiced up SWFE...like most of the systems in 07-08. Except maybe not quite that much QPF, but a snow thump to sleet and freezing rain isn't all that uncommon is it?

 

 I've come to expect that formula here after six winters.  Usually a nice thump followed by light freezing rain for a few hours and then done.  I've come to really appreciate SWFE's for this area.  Not as much guessing and worries as with a coastal storm and it's solid snow pack.

[bobbutts]

Pictures say it snowed heavily in Bow on 12/16/07

[dendrite]

GFS is east with the primary. Big hit north of the Pike.

[N. OF PIKE]

Boom @ hr 114

Looks like solid 8-10 for bos on gfs of cement and 1" qpf in 7 hr burst

[CoastalWx]

GFS is perfect. Mega thump and then dryslot as it taints.

[dryslot]

Lock it

[CoastalWx]

Lock it

 

In a heartbeat. I'd take it and run.

[H2Otown_WX]

I need to move to Massachusetts. 

[SnowGoose69]

850 temps from 99-102 hours actually cool across parts of SNE down to NYC and the whole profile shifts south in that period...that may be a sign the primary is trying to weaken and transfer as early as 99 hours.