February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[J Paul Gordon]

funny..you guys ALL the way up there are worried for an BRIEF ping at the end. sleet is ok my friend. it wont hurt your snowfall totals.

Packs it down and is mad heavy to shovel.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Packs it down and is mad heavy to shovel.

Angry sleet, be careful.

[New Englander]

Just sitting watching the wheels go round and round.......Nice snowfall rates coming up. Like it.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Thundersnow maybe?

That thought busted popped in my weenie

[HoarfrostHubb]

My guess for jackpot is somewhere around Gardner, MA getting about 14-15 inches.

No. 2 miles SW

[Ginx snewx]

Nested is up http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_00z_ptype_animate_1h.html#picture

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Nested is up http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/firewx_00z_ptype_animate_1h.html#picture

What's the value of this run?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Does precip look a little slower to move in than modeled? Radar still looks to be many hours from SNE.

[Ginx snewx]

Scott variables http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/

[dryslot]

Does precip look a little slower to move in than modeled? Radar still looks to be many hours from SNE.

 

1-2 hrs behind

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

SYSTEM/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE TN/MS/OH VALLEYS

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 12Z NAM STARTS OUT WEAKER AT THE 700 HPA LEVEL WITH THIS

SYSTEM. IT APPEARS TO USE CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK TO

STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM MORE THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE

LATE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WHICH FORCES ITS SURFACE LOW ON A MORE

WESTERLY TRAJECTORY. EVEN IF FEEDBACK WAS NOT INVOLVED HERE, THE

NAM OCCASIONALLY SHOWS A STRONG BIAS WITH SYSTEMS, WHICH SEEMS TO

BE DUE TO ITS WRF PHYSICS PACKAGE. COORDINATION WITH THE WINTER

WEATHER DESK YIELDED ANOTHER ODD NAM-ADVERTISED SHORTWAVE BEING

STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIR UP THE APPALACHIANS, WHICH

ALSO LOOKS SUSPICIOUS. A NON-NAM COMPROMISE IS ADVISED WITH

AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

[N. OF PIKE]

1-2 hrs behind

Is it? I see it flying Ne'ward now and blossoming

[ROOSTA]

 

MM5 IS ONBOARD 

Of note: 25mm is approx. = 1" QPF  

[dryslot]

Is it? I see it flying Ne'ward now and blossoming

 

It is up here,Looks like 11z or so start time

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Is it? I see it flying Ne'ward now and blossoming

Someone posted the 12z diag.

Looks right on time to me

[wxsniss]

RAP / HRRR continue to go ballistic 13z-17z, widespread 8"+ by end of run

 

And meanwhile...

Taunton snuck in another upgrade, expanded 10-14 further south into CT

[ryanjn]

Man that looks exactly like my original map I made at 5. Should have stuck to my guns. The one I posted still has the northern Half of CT in an 8-12 though. Taunton seemed to have that 8+ further south than anyone. We'll just have to see if it verifies. 

[ryanjn]

 

Too bad this storm couldn't stick around a few more hours with these projected snowfall rates. 

[wxsniss]

 

Too bad this storm couldn't stick around a few more hours with these projected snowfall rates. 

 

Interestingly on that most recent 03z HRRR run you posted, totals bumped northward, cut back significantly in southeast MA... maybe a burp run, or is it catching on to warmer profiles?

[ryanjn]

HRRR is starting to pull its snowfall totals away from the SNE coast now. Looks like a zonal band of higher totals right across MA. Little to no precip mixing to contend with except far SE MA.

[ryanjn]

Yeah I think it's picking up on the mixing and warmer air on the coast now when you look at the precip type map. Looks like in SE MA it's showing less QPF and some dry air pushing in. 16z precip is absent from SE MA on the latest run.

[Whineminster]

No. 2 miles SW

No. 2 miles east

[wxsniss]

BOX, like HRRR, must be buying into warmer profiles

 

Anyone take a look at the Euro?

 

Map adjusted down 1242am (previously increased 1046pm)...

[wxsniss]

0z Euro, at least at 850, looks very close / possibly even a hair colder than 12z for 18z-21z timeframe

[Johnno]

Well that was a quick map change, looks like about 10 here, I think many people will approve overall

[wxsniss]

what is RAP smoking?

 

though both RAP and HRRR have good depiction of current returns, and both target Pike region with 1-3" for several hours this morning

 

[CoastalWx]

Thunder in NYC and based on this, can be possible in SNE too.

 

[ineedsnow]

Coming down hard here went from nothing to heavy snow

[CT Rain]

Dual pol is awesome around NYC. Giant, rimed aggregates producing crazy high Z. 

[wxsniss]

7z HRRR / RAP continue to blast pike region in next 6 hours

sorry to keep posting these but they've been consistent as we get closer

 

also both HRRR and RAP suggest BOX tapering back NE-Mass may have been premature

redevelopment of snow (?developing CCB) as storm departs will especially impact NE-Mass into SNH