February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[ryanjn]

Idk if I attached the image right. But here's my map and the state borders have disappeared due to too many revisions.  

[Ginx snewx]

Dynamic cooling when saturated to 200mb?

[weatherMA]

HRRR goes crazy for southern CT/LI tomorrow morning. 10-12" for many.

[dendrite]

[CoastalWx]

Scott throw up the next 6 hrs, cripes Messenger is cold

 

Well this is 700mb, but there is a warmer layer  below, moving in after 15z.

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Idk if I attached the image right. But here's my map and the state borders have disappeared due to too many revisions.

Wow Ryan, aggressive but I like

[N. OF PIKE]

Dentrite can u pop up 15z 775's so those s of pike can have a seizure

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Scott throw up the next 6 hrs, cripes Messenger is cold

Yeah this is really a classic swfe as Will argues. One where I am snowing when some wnw of me ping.

[Ginx snewx]

The majority of SNE precip falls through hr 15

[dendrite]

Dentrite can u pop up 15z 775's so those s of pike can have a seizure

[ryanjn]

Wow Ryan, aggressive but I like

It was more aggressive lol, but after seeing all the other maps I realized I was going far against the grain and didn't have much reason too besides believing the high QPF from the NAM and assuming the majority of CT will stay snow.. Now I see the HRRR runs I feel a bit more confident about it. HRRR showing almost 12in in CT by 15z, I wouldn't go as far to say that's gonna come to fruition, but I think southern NE will get a good dose of snow. 

[RobbieL241]

HRRR total snowfall is legit for the northern four CT counties.  Southern four should be stunted due to sleet.

[Ginx snewx]

It was more aggressive lol, but after seeing all the other maps I realized I was going far against the grain and didn't have much reason too besides believing the high QPF from the NAM and assuming the majority of CT will stay snow.. Now I see the HRRR runs I feel a bit more confident about it. HRRR showing almost 12in in CT by 15z, I wouldn't go as far to say that's gonna come to fruition, but I think southern NE will get a good dose of snow.

hi Res NAM agrees with your thoughts, wow what a thumping in about 6 hours

[Ginx snewx]

Dentrite can u pop up 15z 775's so those s of pike can have a seizure

15Z onwards is CNEs turn

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is like 2" per hour over much of MA from 12z-15z...craziness...its probably a little overdone with both that 3h precip and the associated warm punch...but pretty fun to look at. That would be wild.

[Ginx snewx]

NAM is like 2" per hour over much of MA from 12z-15z...craziness...its probably a little overdone with both that 3h precip and the associated warm punch...but pretty fun to look at. That would be wild.

hi Res agrees

[ORH_wxman]

hi Res agrees

 

 

Well I;m sure it would...same model, higher resolution.

[N. OF PIKE]

15Z onwards is CNEs turn

I'd say N of pike to rte 2 and N is dumping at 15z to 17z . Thou if toungue moves faster ....

[Ginx snewx]

Well I;m sure it would...same model, higher resolution.

often different outputs like yesterday, nested will be out soonhttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/

[weatherwiz]

Thundersnow maybe?

[bmj16725]

0Z RGEM looks a bit cooler/snowier for south of the pike than 18z:

 

 

 

 

[N. OF PIKE]

Watching PA reports next few hrs to see how "warm tongue" behaves

KASH to Haverhill area looks like a damn good spot w a lil more wiggle room should 775 warming "over-perform" ...and im talking for the bigger 10-12 totals

[TalcottWx]

Watching PA reports next few hrs to see how "warm tongue" behaves

Don't buy the NAM. It's probably well overdone as usual. There warmth will make it a bit further N than modeled the past few days but I give no chance of the NAM scoring a coup...

[weatherMA]

This would be ugly if it verified for up here.

[Ginx snewx]

Really dude the weather boy? RGEM signals the warmth stopped, Wills ideas seem good although he maybe under if those rates materialized

[CoastalWx]

GFS is a dump of snow tomorrow morning. Overall thicknesses look similar...maybe a smidge warmer aloft.

[JC-CT]

Is GFS showing hours of FZRN for E CT? Or are ptype maps tossable?

[Hazey]

RDPS was a bit of a slice to QPF. No?

[J Paul Gordon]

Not much to do now but wait and see. Expecting a nice hit here in Worcester. Hoping the NAM is just a bit crazy with that warming aloft. We shall see.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Not much to do now but wait and see. Expecting a nice hit here in Worcester. Hoping the NAM is just a bit crazy with that warming aloft. We shall see.

 

funny..you guys ALL the way up there are worried for an BRIEF ping at the end. sleet is ok my friend. it wont hurt your snowfall totals.