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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Winds?

No idea about down there but up here they will be nothing noteworthy...not uncommon in a situation with duel low pressure systems and no bombing low to generate any pressure gradient. If imagine they won't be that bad anywhere in New England. Just strikes as a situation where wind isn't a big player, but with ice sometimes even 10-20mph can be enough.

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
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We got .25 down here from 12/15 storm. I really would be surprsied if it rains here, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

Yeah...that 12/15 event was interesting. We went above freezing here in Clinton around midnight with only a very light glaze...while HVN dropped several degrees at the same time and ended with some decent icing. I drove west on I95 the next day and it went from no visible icing to a very solid glaze over the course of just a mile or so around Branford.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Those are only 12Z data plots. 18Z tomorrow is +4C.

Oh man so those plots we've been looking at just connect the 12z temp dots? I thought they included other hours rather than 12z but I guess it doesn't. That's a really misleading piece of guidance then, shouldn't connect the dots and should just plot 12z temp as is...it makes it seem linear.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Oh man so those plots we've been looking at just connect the 12z temp dots? I thought they included other hours rather than 12z but I guess it doesn't. That's a really misleading piece of guidance then, shouldn't connect the dots and should just plot 12z temp as is...it makes it seem linear.

yes, sad, especially with the individual Ens shown. Oh well, don't know where Brian gets them but obviously not for free.
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ryanjn

ryanjn

Posted
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I think northern Middlesex and Worcester Counties up toward the southern NH counties will see a solid band of 10-14. I made a map but it pretty much looks like Tauntons map. I think some higher snowfall totals will make it a bit farther south than some maps were showing. CT/MA border around 10in and even southern CT I would be surprised to see 6 inches. They are getting plenty of QPF and there will be some mixing, possibly freezing rain for a bit, but some of these maps showing northern CT and RI getting 2-5 or whatever I think is far too low. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Oh man so those plots we've been looking at just connect the 12z temp dots? I thought they included other hours rather than 12z but I guess it doesn't. That's a really misleading piece of guidance then, shouldn't connect the dots and should just plot 12z temp as is...it makes it seem linear.

I thought it looked obvious looking at the charts at first glance. The SD boxes and line segment are at 24hr intervals.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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I thought it looked obvious looking at the charts at first glance. The SD boxes and line segment are at 24hr intervals.

Yeah that one does, I was confused and more thinking the ensemble line plots (the second one Ginxy posted). I just don't get why draw lines if it's not filling in the other times.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Upper mid-levels are warmer from H75-H8.

Yes. Wxniss we just see these "sneaky" warm layers so often. I will take the under and go 3-4" where most have me 5-8. Ironically i have a warning tonight when i couldn't buy an advisory for 4.5 the other day.

Awaiting other guidance.

Consensus on start times in providence and Boston?

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
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Yes. Wxniss we just see these "sneaky" warm layers so often. I will take the under and go 3-4" where most have me 5-8. Ironically i have a warning tonight when i couldn't buy an advisory for 4.5 the other day.

Awaiting other guidance.

Consensus on start times in providence and Boston?

 

the warm tongue at 18z off twister, column is snow 15z and before... Timing is really close but hopefully you pull off at least 0.4-0.5" qpf before this layer warms... or that EC soundings are more correct

post-3106-0-53329700-1391568040_thumb.pn

 

 

meanwhile, 0z RAP continues on steroids...

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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NAM seems to be the most aggressive with that warm tongue, but the euro is not far behind. It's certainly possible with the origins of this system and would fit the character of these types of storms. Ironically, it's this plume of warm and moist air the nukes the area prior to any taint. 

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
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NAM seems to be the most aggressive with that warm tongue, but the euro is not far behind. It's certainly possible with the origins of this system and would fit the character of these types of storms. Ironically, it's this plume of warm and moist air the nukes the area prior to any taint. 

 

This is where snow totals can we thrown off when it's dumping 1-2"/hr.

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