February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[bristolri_wx]

I'm expecting 4-6" in my neck of the woods.  Can't see us getting any more than that between a potential dry slot and eventual mixing.  That being said, I don't mind so much given I'm starting off with a base of 4-5" from Monday's coastal storm.  I don't mind these 4-6" storms if they keep building the snow pack.

[Ginx snewx]

My experience is it's worse. The clumps of snow absorb much of the liquid and there's more sfc area for the ZR to accrete/absorb into.

I was about to say the same plus those areas, small branches, without snow will accrete. What will winds be like?

[powderfreak]

I was about to say the same plus those areas, small branches, without snow will accrete. What will winds be like?

Watch the evergreens/pines.

[#NoPoles]

this storm has peaked already, and now the ULL is hanging back while the WAA is pulling away creating two separate pieces...that ULL is going to bring good upslope to the usual places...WAA will come in with a huge dryslot...i'm thinking scattered showery type precip for my area while the bulk of the precip shield targets CNE

[Ginx snewx]

The 18z models indicate more sleet than Freezing rain, I am getting a VDay vibe, heaviest snow I have shoveled, sand

[CT Rain]

The 18z models indicate more sleet than Freezing rain, I am getting a VDay vibe, heaviest snow I have shoveled, sand

 

Yeah I think any zone of ZR will be pretty narrow. 

[Johnno]

The 18z models indicate more sleet than Freezing rain, I am getting a VDay vibe, heaviest snow I have shoveled, sand

Yea plowing was something else that next morning, good grief... hopefully we're mostly snow here with some pellets to lock it up

[Ginx snewx]

Watch the evergreens/pines.

taken today

[friedmators]

[ctsnowstorm628]

It's really hard to get significant freezing rain at the shoreline. Besides January 94 and December 1973 there really haven't been many events that cause damage. I do think there's a shot for a pretty solid glaze... maybe 1/4" or so? 

 

Generally ZR is a lot easier to get from Guilford through Milford thanks to some draining down the Quinnipiac River Valley. 

In my 21 years along the CT shoreline, I've never seen more than 0.15" accretion. I think the elevated spots off the shore (Killingworth, Durham, north Madison and Guilford) have a shot at significant icing, but wouldn't be surprised if the immediate shore towns are RA and 33-34.

[Damage In Tolland]

10-12 on the RAP.

[Sn0waddict]

In my 21 years along the CT shoreline, I've never seen more than 0.15" accretion. I think the elevated spots off the shore (Killingworth, Durham, north Madison and Guilford) have a shot at significant icing, but wouldn't be surprised if the immediate shore towns are RA and 33-34.

We got .25 down here from 12/15 storm. I really would be surprsied if it rains here, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

[dendrite]

Those 18hr RAP maps are almost as bad as the DGEX.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Here are the 4+ inch probabilities for a 48-hour period from 00z tonight through 00z Friday.

 

I'm surprised the WPC isn't much higher down in the Mass Pike region.  I'd think they and most of CT are a lock for 4+.  

 

Untitled.png

I posted this on Twitter earlier...WPC has a cool percentile tool, and taking the 50th percentile (average of all solutions) this is what they're thinking. Seems reasonable.

[CT Rain]

The CIPS Analog guidance seems reasonable.

 

 

[ctsnowstorm628]

We got .25 down here from 12/15 storm. I really would be surprsied if it rains here, but it's not out of the realm of possibilities.

Yeah Fairfield county is a whole different world when it comes to ZR. 

 

I remember on 2/14/07 we were 34 and RA+ in Westbrook and 15 miles west was 19 and ZR+.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

RAP will not verify. waaay too south with the southern edge.

[Ginx snewx]

Winds?

[CT Rain]

Yeah Fairfield county is a whole different world when it comes to ZR. 

 

I remember on 2/14/07 we were 34 and RA+ in Westbrook and 15 miles west was 19 and ZR+.

 

HVN gets ZR pretty easily. The northerly drain down the Quinnipiac River is impressive and can lead to a dramatic temperature drop over a short distance. Cold air doesn't dislodge easily there. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The CIPS Analog guidance seems reasonable.

6 hours or more of zr? I'll go under. In fact I'd say 0 zr and only sleet

[RI Rob]

Suffolk just delayed there opening to 11am. Surprised there wasn't a cancellation. 

[CT Rain]

6 hours or more of zr? I'll go under. In fact I'd say 0 zr and only sleet

 

Once again the world doesn't revolve around Tolland. It's analog guidance... and as a whole I think it looks decent. 

[moneypitmike]

Those 18hr RAP maps are almost as bad as the DGEX.

 

You mean NYC won't get 8-10"?????

[Damage In Tolland]

Once again the world doesn't revolve around Tolland. It's analog guidance... and as a whole I think it looks decent.

Who said anything about that town? I meant as a whole. I don't see zr being a problem except far far s ct and even there not 6 hours more

[Ginx snewx]

Not sure it was mentioned but Euro ENS were colder, never get NYC above 0 at 850

[CoastalWx]

Not sure it was mentioned but Euro ENS were colder, never get NYC above 0 at 850

 

?? They certainly do.

[Ginx snewx]

?? They certainly do.

[dendrite]

Those are only 12Z data plots. 18Z tomorrow is +4C.

[CoastalWx]

EC ensembles get Kevin above 0C at 850.

[CoastalWx]

Those are only 12Z data plots. 18Z tomorrow is +4C.

 

Yeah those plots are really misleading.