February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[dryslot]

At least DT got 1 county from maine in there..........lol

[Mr. Windcredible!]

I'll work on one after dinner. Haven't had a chance this afternoon.

Ryan...thoughts on icing potential in S CT? I know you grew up in Guilford and would know the climo better than I would have gathered in my 6 short years here. Always just have assumed a major icing event would be very very unlikely. You think we can stay mostly sleet here or could we get into a prolonged period of fzra before ending as drizzle? Would prefer to avoid any major icing.

[Lava Rock]

At least DT got 1 county from maine in there..........lol

yeah notice the sharp cutoff north of York.lol

[Ginx snewx]

Ryan...thoughts on icing potential in S CT? I know you grew up in Guilford and would know the climo better than I would have gathered in my 6 short years here. Always just have assumed a major icing event would be very very unlikely. You think we can stay mostly sleet here or could we get into a prolonged period of fzra before ending as drizzle? Would prefer to avoid any major icing.

The Jan 94 ice storm was very impressive all along the shore, as long as winds maintain northerly component the drain down the valley will ensure cold, any ENE and you get tainted by marine air.

[KartAnimal29]

So what are the chances of this thing coming in about 25 to 50 miles more to the  south  then what is being projected right now? Sorry if that  was talked about today but I haven't been able to look at  anything all day

[Modfan]

The Jan 94 ice storm was very impressive all along the shore, as long as winds maintain northerly component the drain down the valley will ensure cold, any ENE and you get tainted by marine air.

What are you thinking, 6-7 for you then sleet, maybe 8 up this way then to sleet?

[CT Rain]

Ryan...thoughts on icing potential in S CT? I know you grew up in Guilford and would know the climo better than I would have gathered in my 6 short years here. Always just have assumed a major icing event would be very very unlikely. You think we can stay mostly sleet here or could we get into a prolonged period of fzra before ending as drizzle? Would prefer to avoid any major icing.

 

It's really hard to get significant freezing rain at the shoreline. Besides January 94 and December 1973 there really haven't been many events that cause damage. I do think there's a shot for a pretty solid glaze... maybe 1/4" or so? 

 

Generally ZR is a lot easier to get from Guilford through Milford thanks to some draining down the Quinnipiac River Valley. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

415 PM EST TUE FEB 04 2014

VALID 00Z WED FEB 05 2014 - 00Z SAT FEB 08 2014

DAY 1...

...OH VALLEY/N. APPALACHIANS/NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...

MODEL TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN FOR SNOW AND ICE

ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

VALLEY TO PIVOT SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY INTO

NEW ENGLAND... INCLUDING THE RAIN/SNOW/ICE LINE DRAPED ACROSS

PENNSYLVANIA. LEADING THE WAY HAS BEEN THE ECMWF...

WHICH HAS CHANGED THE LEAST SINCE YESTERDAY AND THUS BEEN THE MOST

CONSISTENT...WITH THE NAM/GFS AND OTHER SOLUTIONS DRIFTING MORE

TOWARD IT. LARGE-SCALE WISE...12Z GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED WITH

THE LOW TRACK AND DEPTH. HOWEVER...THE NAM LIES NEAR THE STRONG

EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE 925-500 MB LAYER RESULTING IN LARGER

NORTHWARD DIFFERENCES IN ITS QPF DUE TO GREATER LOWER LEVEL

WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW. THE GFS IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF BUT

PRODUCES SOME QUESTIONABLE QPF BULLSEYES (POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE IN

ORIGIN) NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT MODULATES THE P-TYPE TRANSITION

ZONE MORE NORTHWARD AND FOCUSES THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MORE

CLOSELY TO THE FRONT. THE ECMWF IS BROADER WITH ITS PRECIPITATION

AND MAINTAINS THE RAIN/SNOW/ICE LINE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE EAST OF

THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH IS GENERALLY PREFERRED. HOWEVER...GIVEN

THE REMAINING SOLUTION SPREAD AND THAT EVEN THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO

ADJUST SLIGHTLY FROM RUN-TO-RUN...HAVE HEDGED THE OVERALL SNOW/ICE

FORECAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS...WITH THE ACTUAL

CONTRIBUTIONS ABOUT 65 PERCENT ECMWF TO 35 PERCENT GFS...WITH SOME

FURTHER MODIFICATIONS PERFORMED TO INCREASE THE SNOW/ICE GRADIENTS

THAT RESULT FROM AVERAGING.

THE AUTOMATED HEAVY SNOW AND ICE PROBABILITIES THAT ARE GENERATED

FROM THE DETERMINISTIC WWD AMOUNTS ALONG WITH OTHER

DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CONSISTENT AND ALIGNED WITH THE

ANTICIPATED SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY...WITH NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES

NEEDED. HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 12 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW EXTEND

ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 4 INCHES OR

MORE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHEASTWARD

INTO MAINE. MEANWHILE...HIGH PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING 0.25

INCHES OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OH

VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN PA...WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE

MORE THAN 0.5 INCHES OF ICE.

[CT Rain]

Guys this thread turned into an epic cluster over the last 2 hours. I just deleted like 30 posts. Can we please try to use the banter threat for banter. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It's really hard to get significant freezing rain at the shoreline. Besides January 94 and December 1973 there really haven't been many events that cause damage. I do think there's a shot for a pretty solid glaze... maybe 1/4" or so? 

 

Generally ZR is a lot easier to get from Guilford through Milford thanks to some draining down the Quinnipiac River Valley. 

 

how do you think the 95 corridor from stamford to hvn fares? more sleet then snow obv but will it be liquid at all?

[Ginx snewx]

I think this GFS snow map is pretty good

[moneypitmike]

Schools should really close up shop everywhere. Tell parents now so they can prepare by drinking lots of wine tonight.

 

LOL

 

My wife and my anniversary today. Celebrating 1995-96, the winter of our marriage on the coldest day of the year ahead of a 2014 snowstorm.

 

Happy anniversary, Jerry.

 

Feeling good for 9+, I think my forecast is a little bullish, but I'll take it.

 

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Snow likely in the evening. Total snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible. Cooler with lows around 10 above. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent

[CT Rain]

how do you think the 95 corridor from stamford to hvn fares? more sleet then snow obv but will it be liquid at all?

 

Little if any rain from HVN to HPN. Should be snow to sleet to freezing rain. Maybe a 1/4" glaze. 

[CT Rain]

This is the map we've had since Sunday night. Haven't touched it since. 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

I think this GFS snow map is pretty good ImageUploadedByTapatalk1391559834.930722.jpg

close up

[powderfreak]

At least DT got 1 county from maine in there..........lol

 

He'll probably be a little low on the north end of that map.  Goes from 8-12" to 3-6" sharply there, haha.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9"+ is not bullish MPM....looks good!

[powderfreak]

WPC probabilities for 8< inches of snow in a 48 hour period from 00z tonight till 00z Friday.

 

Interestingly it never gets above 90% for New England with the highest probs over central New York.  I would've thought 8+ was a near 100% chance for at least RT 2 and SVT/SNH.

 

[dryslot]

He'll probably be a little low on the north end of that map.  Goes from 8-12" to 3-6" sharply there, haha.

 

Yeah it was more in jest as his focus was south, But we will be in the 8-12" range

[Bostonseminole]

Enjoy guys!

Getting 15" up here in Yonezawa Japan so not complaining I'm not home!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NJwinter23]

Hardly any of the paste fell off the trees today. That is no good with more on the way and a 1/4" glaze of ice

[powderfreak]

Here are the 4+ inch probabilities for a 48-hour period from 00z tonight through 00z Friday.

 

I'm surprised the WPC isn't much higher down in the Mass Pike region.  I'd think they and most of CT are a lock for 4+.  

 

[Ginx snewx]

Hardly any of the paste fell off the trees today. That is no good with more on the way and a 1/4" glaze of ice

yea I just said the same

[Ginx snewx]

It was powdery here, but not dandruff. Had some substance to it

it dried out to powder but it froze to the trees

[NJwinter23]

yea I just said the same

 

I figured 32 degrees and sunshine would have done the trick today, I guess not! Musta been really frozen on there after a cold night with no wind..Also nice to have snow with real substance to it for a change. I swear that near 10" a couple weeks back compacted/sublimated  to 3" the following day

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Here are the 4+ inch probabilities for a 48-hour period from 00z tonight through 00z Friday.

 

I'm surprised the WPC isn't much higher down in the Mass Pike region.  I'd think they and most of CT are a lock for 4+.  

 

Untitled.png

 

there is certainly the chance of sleet cutting down totals even in N CT. i think those probabilities are generally ok. 70-80% of 4" is still pretty good.

[CT Rain]

yea I just said the same

 

How much accretion do you get on the trees when snow's already there? I feel like more is wasted than usual as a lot of the ZR will fall to the ground off the clumps of snow on the trees. 

[dendrite]

How much accretion do you get on the trees when snow's already there? I feel like more is wasted than usual as a lot of the ZR will fall to the ground off the clumps of snow on the trees. 

My experience is it's worse. The clumps of snow absorb much of the liquid and there's more sfc area for the ZR to accrete/absorb into.

[powderfreak]

Region wide NWS snowfall forecast...

[CT Rain]

My experience is it's worse. The clumps of snow absorb much of the liquid and there's more sfc area for the ZR to accrete/absorb into.

 

Good to know. We'll get more paste to throw on top of that tomorrow. I could see a sliver of icing issues with isolated outages between HFD and HVN tomorrow.