powderfreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I was convinced of this same thing before 12/13/07...then we got 1/4 SM baking powder for 8 hours. Still not sure why because the lift was pretty deep in that and it penetrated the SGZ. It's still one of my bigger forecasting mysteries. I've noticed it happens more often than not in WAA scenarios that ratios aren't what was advertised. Even with massive snow growth zones and all that...it just seems to want to get close to 10:1 in these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Liking where I'm sitting and feeling confident with this one. A dense foot +/- seems likely. This will be great for the mountains up north too. I skied Loon and although the skiing in the trees was certainly not recommended, a 6-10" dumping could open up the tree skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It looks like with lingering lift below 850 and high rh..the whole region sees lingering snows tomorrow night..Not just E Ma..enough for a 1-2 type fluffer You always think snows will linger, but it is ok to let it go as it passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That will mostly be north of the Pike, but maybe if you keep saying it it will come true. Yeah and when it finally collapses S, its mostly in eastern regions. I do think much of SNE will have some weenie/mood snow tomorrow evening...but like after 00z and esp toward 03z-06z, I think the stuff that has a chance to drop an inch or so is in E MA/SE NH...unless the RGEM scenario is more accurate when it would be a bit more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 That will mostly be north of the Pike, but maybe if you keep saying it it will come true. We'll be sure to revisit this tomorrow night when it's lightly snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Some of the hi res models have weenie OES stuff tomorrow night too...esp ern PYM county. Enough for an inch or a bit more.Figuring 3-4 from waa and maybe a couple Wednesday night here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NEW BOX map:..congrats to everyone on a major winter storm NWS Boston @NWSBoston 50s Here is our latest thinking on the upcoming winter storm late tonight and Wed. pic.twitter.com/YUBKhocPpi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NEW BOX map:..congrats to everyone on a major winter storm NWS Boston @NWSBoston 50s Here is our latest thinking on the upcoming winter storm late tonight and Wed. pic.twitter.com/YUBKhocPpi 8-10 in Boston, not bad. I'd be happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NEW BOX map:..congrats to everyone on a major winter storm NWS Boston @NWSBoston 50s Here is our latest thinking on the upcoming winter storm late tonight and Wed. pic.twitter.com/YUBKhocPpi Much better but probably still too high here. These almost under perform like all miller c's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We'll be sure to revisit this tomorrow night when it's lightly snowingI expect you to get some -SN. I'm just not sure it'll be 1-2" additional down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 2nd warning issuance but the 1st one didn't verify.That is just nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Latest map from OKX. Looks reasonable to me, though I think it might be a bit high for NYC metro area. Also, expect interior sections of the CT counties to be closer to the high end of the range and coastal areas to be closer to the lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NEW BOX map:..congrats to everyone on a major winter storm NWS Boston @NWSBoston 50s Here is our latest thinking on the upcoming winter storm late tonight and Wed. pic.twitter.com/YUBKhocPpi Looks good. Changed the gradient more north south than east west. Wow, and expanded the 10-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 NEW BOX map:..congrats to everyone on a major winter storm NWS Boston @NWSBoston 50s Here is our latest thinking on the upcoming winter storm late tonight and Wed. pic.twitter.com/YUBKhocPpi I really don't see too many people in CT turning over to plain old rain until it's just drizzling at the end, but they are the experts, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks good. Changed the gradient more north south than east west. Wow, and expanded the 10-14 Yeah. Really moved that south quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ha! All you guys were waiting for the NWS to bring the lines up north more and they brought them Down! I'm almost into the 10-14 now. Ray still think's I'm getting 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We'll be sure to revisit this tomorrow night when it's lightly snowing If we revisit...can we also revisit that you said it would be 1 to 2 inches and not just light snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ha! All you guys were waiting for the NWS to bring the lines up north more and they brought them Down! I'm almost into the 10-14 now. Ray still think's I'm getting 6". I don't know about the BOX map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 funny that the facebook / twitter map gets updated before the noaa.gov map gets updated... sign of our times finally a more latitudinal gradient despite the anticipated northward shifts, system is more juiced than the dry GFS / overall progs 24 hours ago, so net gain for Pike region, even for areas flirting with pingers RAP shows 2-3"/hr stuff at the end of its run... should be an interesting AM commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 funny that the facebook / twitter map gets updated before the noaa.gov map gets updated... sign of our times finally a more latitudinal gradient despite the anticipated northward shifts, system is more juiced than the dry GFS / overall progs 24 hours ago, so net gain for Pike region, even for areas flirting with pingers RAP shows 2-3"/hr stuff at the end of its run... should be an interesting AM commute RAP_1hsnw_t3sfc_f18.png The graphic on the website has to be updated before it's available to social media, but the difference is the upload to the website takes longer than it does to dump a file into folder for internet use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We'll be sure to revisit this tomorrow night when it's lightly snowingI've seen on some modeling the mood snow has a potential to drift further south than east and Even clip thecape with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Much better but probably still too high here. These almost under perform like all miller c'sIt's catching on!!!#MillerC #MillerTime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 New 18z GFS very similar to 12z thermally around here, but pushes through more WAA precip before any change over. Verbatim, it would probably be more like a 6-8" snowfall vs. 4-6" on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We finally get to play with this storm...been a rough month for us folks NW of BOX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Really awesome snow growth modeled. I imagine we'll get some monster parachutes prior to pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 18z a tickle or 2 colder at mid levels. makes a world of difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Really awesome snow growth modeled. I imagine we'll get some monster parachutes prior to pingers. Ryan, have you put out a probabilistic forecast for CT cities? Those are great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ryan, have you put out a probabilistic forecast for CT cities? Those are great. I'll work on one after dinner. Haven't had a chance this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We finally get to play with this storm...been a rough month for us folks NW of BOX. yeah its our time to shine, looks like a real snow map unlike the last 4 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just wondering down here in the Naugatuck Valley will we have to worry about an icing event? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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