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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

Posted
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It will be interesting to see what the updates look like with the new data. I'm having a little difficulty following the concerns about sleet (I understand the 700mb line along the MA/NH border) and how long it will cut into the time that snow falls in areas south of that line and the amount of snowfall that will be affected. I think I understand the 850s better.

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

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Probably nearly concurrently with the overall update to their afternoon forecast package, you impatient beast.

They did an update after 1 o'clock and added a loony statement about snow mixed with sleet (versus all snow) falling for about two hours in our area. It always strikes me as silly when they get THAT particular.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

It will be interesting to see what the updates look like with the new data. I'm having a little difficulty following the concerns about sleet (I understand the 700mb line along the MA/NH border) and how long it will cut into the time that snow falls in areas south of that line and the amount of snowfall that will be affected. I think I understand the 850s better.

 

 

The sleet line might briefly make it to a BOS-ORH line...however, it would be quite brief and after nearly all the meaningful precipitation has fallen in the form of snow.

 

In short, the sleet will have immaterial impact on snowfall amounts for most north of the CT/MA border. Further south, where sleet may fall for a few hours during the heavier precip, then it could cut amounts by 2-4"...hence, why a place like Hartford may get 4-8" or 5-9" vs 6-10" or 8-12"

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Zeus

Zeus

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Maybe compress the 10-14 zone and bump slightly N.

 

Granted this is predicting predictions, but...

 

box_zpsd57f10cf.png

 

It'll probably look like this. (Go by colors not numbers... and this is literally a guess at what they will guess... kids like pictures with pretty colors... this should keep them entertainted)

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Looks like mashed potato's inside 495, esp 128 area. Low 30's and dumping.

 

Most if it falls in the mid to upper 20s. BOS is like 25-26F at 12z on the Euro while it is ripping. By the time it creeps near freezing, a lot of the precip has fallen.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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We'll see. If there's one thing I understand, it's sleet.

 

 

Who could ever forget your old avatar.

 

 

As long as it doesn't sleet before 18z, then BOS is a lock for warning criteria. Probably 8"+. I don't see how it sleets before 18z...maybe 17z at earliest...but I won't be surprised if there's a few pingers in the afternoon after that time.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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SREF's have great snow growth up here (grain of salt plus this is the 9Z)

BTV also noting a very deep snow growth zone....

&& Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/... as of 320 PM EST Tuesday...a solid moderate snowfall event (by Vermont/northern New York standards that is) then expected across most of our area during Wednesday/early Wednesday evening as aforementioned low pressure passes through the northern Middle- Atlantic States and offshore parallel to the southern New England coast near 40n latitude. As mentioned yesterday the system will be a relatively quick mover given fairly fast confluent flow aloft over the northeast. Nonetheless...ample moisture...lift and a deeper than normal snow growth region all favor a solid 12-16 hour event with a 4-8 hour core of steadier/heavier snow from middle morning through the middle afternoon hours. Best qg forcing and low to middle level frontogentical fields set up across central New England and this is where heaviest totals (6-12 inches or so) will likely occur. Further north still a solid event but totals will be less the further north you go...especially along the international border. Advisories and warnings have been expanded slightly northward accordingly given latest quantitative precipitation forecast trends in the models...but I did opt to omit the heavier NAM/WRF quantitative precipitation forecast which appears somewhat overdone given system speed and lack of concerted closed center at 700 mb. "

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