February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[Modfan]

It's probably between the blue and yellow lines on that map...though closer to blue because the soundings seem to be close to isothermal between 725-850...warmest layer in the 800mb zone.

Thanks, so looks like you and Dave potentially taint?

[OceanStWx]

1.11" at LCI so yeah around 1"

 

That's a pretty significant change from 12z yesterday. I mean we're talking 2-4" more in some places with that bump up in QPF.

[SJonesWX]

1.11" at LCI so yeah around 1"

CON about the same i assume?

[ctsnowstorm628]

What does it have here Ed?

0.93" at LEW, Jeff,

 

That's a pretty significant change from 12z yesterday. I mean we're talking 2-4" more in some places with that bump up in QPF.

I know. Couldn't say I didn't see this coming though. 12/15 redux with MSLP near ACK.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just peeked at the GFS sounding for Brockton and it looks as though the warmest level is just about 825mb. Interesting setup to say the least as I would typically expect the warmest layer to be above that around 750-775mb. Also, it looks like a relatively shallow warm layer so looks like a snow/sleet scenario with maybe some brief icing/rain.

I'm fairly certain that we are going to pelt. My question is, before how much snow? and do we go to plain rain ever.

Going to be sloppy

Hoping for 6+

[ctsnowstorm628]

CON about the same i assume?

1.15"

[dryslot]

0.93" at LEW, Jeff,

 

I know. Couldn't say I didn't see this coming though. 12/15 redux with MSLP near ACK.

 

Thanks man, You guys look to do well, Want to go pull PF out from under the picnic table...........lol

[ctsnowstorm628]

Thanks man, You guys look to do well, Want to go pull PF out from under the picnic table...........lol

Haha, he will see at least 5-6". These systems are typically generous with their snowfall distributions.

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks, so looks like you and Dave potentially taint?

 

Yeah...well maybe not Dave. Any taint N of the pike though is going to be very brief if at all.

[OSUmetstud]

The GFS has been a bit stubbornly south and dry compared to other models.  

[weatherMA]

1.11" at LCI so yeah around 1"

Sweet thanks.

 

Should be good for 8-12".

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah...well maybe not Dave. Any taint N of the pike though is going to be very brief if at all.

So maybe a 1-3 hour window of sleet south before it flips back to light snow??

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

How far does the rain get inland, past the Merritt?

[CoastalWx]

That solid yellow line over extreme nrn ma is where is gets close to sleet, but many times the actual sleet line is just south of it. It's a crude way of getting an overview of what is going on, don't take it as the sleet line verbatim.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'm fairly certain that we are going to pelt. My question is, before how much snow? and do we go to plain rain ever.

Going to be sloppy

Hoping for 6+

Oh I know it's going to sleet.  It may end up being the predominant precip type for our area.  I'm trying to decipher when that occurs.  4-8" would be my call for our area.  I do think we also will change to a period of rain in the afternoon for a couple hours or more. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The GFS has been a bit stubbornly south and dry compared to other models.

It did better with northern stream dominated systems...once the pattern turns active with the southern stream, it becomes uncomfortable and anxious.

[bobbutts]

1.15"

Euro and NAM apart by just .01 for CON QPF

GFS showing .8"

[ORH_wxman]

That solid yellow line over extreme nrn ma is where is gets close to sleet, but many times the actual sleet line is just south of it. It's a crude way of getting an overview of what is going on, don't take it as the sleet line verbatim.

 

 

Yeah if you have a fairly deep layer near -1C or so, then the sleet line will often be about 20 miles south it...my guess is we get pingers briefly to the pike near the dryslot.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Oh I know it's going to sleet. It may end up being the predominant precip type for our area. I'm trying to decipher when that occurs. 4-8" would be my call for our area. I do think we also will change to a period of rain in the afternoon for a couple hours or more.

It's so critical when we go to sleet. Nice thump regardless though. Really hoping we don't go to plain jane rain to be honest

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah if you have a fairly deep layer near -1C or so, then the sleet line will often be about 20 miles south it...my guess is we get pingers briefly to the pike near the dryslot.

random question...would you rather get the heavier front end thump and then dryslot or sit a bit further north and have the snow linger along the deformation zone?  Who ends up getting more?  

 

I noticed areas further south of here near the state line end up with a bit more qpf...a bit over an inch...while it's like 0.85-0.90 or so on the euro in BUF.  They are heavier on the front end up but dryslot.

[ORH_wxman]

It's so critical when we go to sleet. Nice thump regardless though. Really hoping we don't go to plain jane rain to be honest

 

 

Pron around noontime there...you're going to get 5-6" at least I think before it pings there.

[Damage In Tolland]

Does Euro give us all the hang back snows tomorrow nite like Rgem etc?

[ORH_wxman]

random question...would you rather get the heavier front end thump and then dryslot or sit a bit further north and have the snow linger along the deformation zone?  Who ends up getting more?  

 

I noticed areas further south of here near the state line end up with a bit more qpf...a bit over an inch...while it's like 0.85-0.90 or so on the euro in BUF.  They are heavier on the front end up but dryslot.

 

 

I'm not sure there is much of a difference. Spots that barely avoid sleet will get a lot of snow being in the meat of the WAA thump...prob close to an inch of water in the pack. Some area in the southern flank of the ML frontogenesis pivot will probably get similar amounts or perhaps even a couple inches more but maybe less water equivalent...like 0.80".

 

 

I guess it might be your personal preference. If you enjoy the "storm total" jackpot of 14" but 15 to 1 ratios, then you'd def rather be north. If you like 11" of snow with 10 to 1 ratios, then you'd prob rather be closer to the mix line. Since I have somewhat of a snow pack fetish, I'd probably choose the higher water content.

 

 

The good news is this will spread the wealth fairly wide.

[weathafella]

15z srefs juiced up. Keep me all snow so that's all I care about...lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Does Euro give us all the hang back snows tomorrow nite like Rgem etc?

 

 

Not as well as RGEM...but it has some lingering stuff in E MA/SE NH.

[klw]

SREF's have great snow growth up here  (grain of salt plus this is the 9Z)

[J Paul Gordon]

When will Taunton update its snowfall prediction map?

[weatherMA]

15z srefs juiced up. Keep me all snow so that's all I care about...lol.

Even though it's the SREFs ...might be legit. With the exception of the GFS everything has ramped up today.

[SnowMan]

When will Taunton update its snowfall prediction map?

4pm if they update it...

[Zeus]

When will Taunton update its snowfall prediction map?

 

Probably nearly concurrently with the overall update to their afternoon forecast package, you impatient beast.