February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[dryslot]

Several runs now it's been the low end of the QPF spectrum. Even still it's a healthy snowfall for much of the region, just more of a low end warning/high end advisory.

 

Yeah, Kind of been following and know you guys gave it some weight, I wonder if we see that change at 18z? All the other models kind of bumped up today

[ORH_wxman]

Is there a crude way we can use the 850 images to determine the sleet line.  I could have sworn we used the -3c isotherm.

 

 

It depends on how high the strongest warm push is. I usually use around -2C in this. Though in some other events with obscene warm tongues like 12/16/07, the sleet line was closer to -6 or -8C. It was like a 700-725mb warm tongue.

[CoastalWx]

This gets 700mb temps to 0C over nrn CT so there is definitely one of those 750mb warm tongues pushing north. I can't see weenie maps yet, but my guess is it may pelt to the pike just as the good omega exits. Common thing to happen.

[powderfreak]

I think that sounds about right. Usually there is a sneaky warm layer above 0C with these types of events.

Well doesn't it all matter on what level the warmth is at? If it's at 850 then use that, but it's typically higher than that. There have been events where it's -5 at 850 but 2C at 700mb or stuff like that.

[OceanStWx]

Is there a crude way we can use the 850 images to determine the sleet line.  I could have sworn we used the -3c isotherm.

 

Try twisterdata.com, you can click anywhere in the image to get a model sounding at that time. It's some sort of interpolation algorithm but it will be close.

 

I believe weather.cod.edu has a model page that does this now too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Snow map adjustments forth coming in the afternoon pkg i presume

Of course.

 

It was painfully obvious to anyone familiar with swfe climo that the 00z EURO was too cold.

 

No jackpot, but I'll take 9" of snow.

[radarman]

Try twisterdata.com, you can click anywhere in the image to get a model sounding at that time. It's some sort of interpolation algorithm but it will be close.

 

I believe weather.cod.edu has a model page that does this now too.

 

I use that too. 

 

The 12z gfs sounding for N CT near rt 91 had the warmest layer very close to 850 actually, though I'd expect it a little above that.

[Cold Miser]

Sleet and freezing rain are back in the forecast for my area.

(Earlier today it was all snow)

[40/70 Benchmark]

This gets 700mb temps to 0C over nrn CT so there is definitely one of those 750mb warm tongues pushing north. I can't see weenie maps yet, but my guess is it may pelt to the pike just as the good omega exits. Common thing to happen.

2/16/07 with much cooler ssts.

[Zeus]

Of course.

 

It was painfully obvious to anyone familiar with swfe climo that the 00z EURO was too cold.

 

No jackpot, but I'll take 9" of snow.

 

It's really not a huge adjustment from what I'm looking at. I think I might see a switch to sleet for a little bit in Brookline but really not a game-changer at least in my opinion. 6"-10" still seems about right.

[dryslot]

Try twisterdata.com, you can click anywhere in the image to get a model sounding at that time. It's some sort of interpolation algorithm but it will be close.

 

I believe weather.cod.edu has a model page that does this now too.

 

SV does it but you get a list of station to pick from

[CarverWX]

I know its going to at least ping but how far north does the plain rain get?

[dryslot]

Of course.

 

It was painfully obvious to anyone familiar with swfe climo that the 00z EURO was too cold.

 

No jackpot, but I'll take 9" of snow.

 

I really tossed that out more for the folks up this way but i can see box southern areas getting an adj as well

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah, I do look at the Twisterdata soundings but I was just looking, like I said, for a crude #.  I'm in the ball bark and I do know it varies depending upon the system strength.  Also I don't know of many people who have access to the Euro soundings.  Those must cost a 1st born child.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just peeked at the GFS sounding for Brockton and it looks as though the warmest level is just about 825mb.  Interesting setup to say the least as I would typically expect the warmest layer to be above that around 750-775mb.  Also, it looks like a relatively shallow warm layer so looks like a snow/sleet scenario with maybe some brief icing/rain.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's really not a huge adjustment from what I'm looking at. I think I might see a switch to sleet for a little bit in Brookline but really not a game-changer at least in my opinion. 6"-10" still seems about right.

Yea, don't get me wrong.....the implication of a mix with sleet or not is probably an inch or two.

No big deal....but it is what it is.

 

This is finally the nail in the coffin on the 10-14" notion in n CT and RI.

 

6-9" s of the pike, 7-11" n of it.

 

Any 12" amounts are probably in elevated s NH.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I really tossed that out more for the folks up this way but i can see box southern areas getting an adj as well

That 10-14" will be lifted n and more latitudinally, as opposed to east to west.

And changed to 8-12"...or should be.

[free_man]

Yea, don't get me wrong.....the implication of a mix with sleet or not is probably an inch or two.

No big deal....but it is what it is.

 

This is finally the nail in the coffin on the 10-14" notion in n CT and RI.

 

6-9" s of the pike, 7-11" n of it.

 

Any 12" amounts are probably in elevated s NH.

Agree with you, but I could also see 12" amounts in SE NH as well.  Maybe NE MA

[CoastalWx]

850-700 critical thicknesses get to near Rt 2 briefly at 18z then collapse south. Based on that, the 850mb 0C line running from near TOL-GHG and the 700mb 0C isotherm getting to nrn CT at 18z very briefly...my guess there is a fairly isothermal layer from 850-700mb with maybe it's warmest layer at 750. Borderline if sleet makes it to pike..perhaps briefly on the euro.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Agree with you, but I could also see 12" amounts in SE NH as well.  Maybe NE MA

Maybe.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Sleet and freezing rain are back in the forecast for my area.

(Earlier today it was all snow)

 

Same thing here with the NWS forecast. I'm hoping for a Southern Vermont Jackpot for skiing, so I could care less if there's sleet mixed in here.

[CT Rain]

850-700 critical thicknesses get to near Rt 2 briefly at 18z then collapse south. Based on that, the 850mb 0C line running from near TOL-GHG and the 700mb 0C isotherm getting to nrn CT at 18z very briefly...my guess there is a fairly isothermal layer from 850-700mb with maybe it's warmest layer at 750. Borderline if sleet makes it to pike..perhaps briefly on the euro.

 

Looks a hair warmer in mid levels this run than last. 

[CoastalWx]

Sorry this is complicated, but on the fly here.

 

 

 

[Modfan]

Sorry this is complicated, but on the fly here.

 

 

 

snow3.jpg

Per that map it looks like the mix line tickles me and Davis Straights area

[ctsnowstorm628]

For my NVT folks, Euro bumped up QPF significantly.

 

Lyndonville: 0.60"

MPV: 0.75"

MVL: 0.59"

BTV: 0.57"

RUT: 1.11"

LEB: 1.08"

BML: 0.65"

[ORH_wxman]

Per that map it looks like the mix line tickles me and Davis Straights area

 

 

It's probably between the blue and yellow lines on that map...though closer to blue because the soundings seem to be close to isothermal between 725-850...warmest layer in the 800mb zone.

[weatherMA]

For my NVT folks, Euro bumped up QPF significantly.

 

Lyndonville: 0.60"

MPV: 0.75"

MVL: 0.59"

BTV: 0.57"

RUT: 1.11"

LEB: 1.08"

BML: 0.65"

Plymouth? 1"?

[ctsnowstorm628]

Plymouth? 1"?

1.11" at LCI so yeah around 1"

[Damage In Tolland]

It's probably between the blue and yellow lines on that map...though closer to blue because the soundings seem to be close to isothermal between 725-850...warmest layer in the 800mb zone.

Man..that is so so close to staying all snow for N CT. In the end it's fine if it does pelt..but it also might make a difference in 2-4 inches of additional snow.

[dryslot]

For my NVT folks, Euro bumped up QPF significantly.

 

Lyndonville: 0.60"

MPV: 0.75"

MVL: 0.59"

BTV: 0.57"

RUT: 1.11"

LEB: 1.08"

BML: 0.65"

 

What does it have here Ed?