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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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bmj16725

bmj16725

Posted
Posted

GFS for MMK area:

 

If I'm reading it correctly, the sounding shows the column comfortably below freezing through 24h (12z).  By 27h (15z), part of the column has just edged above freezing.  Estimating that we're snowing through about 14z.  About .62" qpf has fallen by then, presumably as snow.  About .28" falls afterward, presumably IP/FZ (we never get above freezing at the surface).

 

I'm guessing that the changeover will happen a bit faster than the GFS shows, but that the snow will arrive a little faster, too.  Also expect that the precip will end significantly sooner than progged (it always seems to in these storms), so the IP/FZ will not be as prolific as advertised.

 

So, based on the GFS, with support from last night's EC, expecting 4-6 inches of snow followed by a couple of hours of sleet and freezing rain, which will add a glaze to the snow pack but not have much of an impact otherwise.

 

I'm totally discounting the NAM.  If it's right, though, we'd just have a coating of snow followed by lots of sleet and freezing rain.

 

I think you are dead on for this area - RGEM supports this as well. Very similar to the December SWFE.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

This storm is cold storm like the last storm . Storm will colder than what some models show for the area. With heavy snow for inland ct area and inland ny area . With totals snowfall 8---14 inches for inland areas . southern ct area 4-8 inches with lots of ice near 1-95 area . new york city area 4-6 inches with icestorm . Inland are nj snow then ice totals snowfall 4-8 inches . Watch models on 18 z runs trend colder once they might see or not see the snow on the ground which will keep the storm colder than what models show for this storm . Models dont see the snow on the ground and there is high to the north of the area. low is reforming off the nj coast area . Plus low could form faster than what models show to which storms have been colder than models show this winter .

Everyone elses forecast does not compare. You are a legend in the making. Thank you!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

A few quick comments on this:

 

1.] How dare you

 

B.] I can ask for whatever I want

 

4.] I mask nothing. I am from the Veruca Salt school of greed when it comes to snow. QPF Queen, ZR Czarina, jackpot fetishist, powder bomb power bottom ... whatever kitschy name feels right, go for it. We wants the redhead.

 

VIII.] For real tho the NAM is 2 warm rite?

 

LOL, Yes, I think the NAM may be too warm.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I don't think it will verify as the nam depicts, you're fine

 

 

Yeah its likely too warm...its even warmer than the torch-happy SREFs. There's pretty good agreement between the 00z Euro, 12z GFS, 12z RGEM right now...RGEM might be a tweak warmer than the other two but not hugely different.

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

You can see the hang-back in eastern areas on the RGEM very well...this is tomorrow night at 06z...notice the RH fields and the sfc pressure inverted trough look

 

 

f42.gif

 

That does have a nice little signal to it. It'll be good and cold by that point; fluff on top of sleet for some I think. Fluff on top of wet stuff for others.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

You can see the hang-back in eastern areas on the RGEM very well...this is tomorrow night at 06z...notice the RH fields and the sfc pressure inverted trough look

 

 

f42.gif

 

 

Yeah much further south than the American guidance has that hang-back area.... hopefully the GFS/NAM combo is closer to right for up here.  The storm totals will hedge on that last burst.

 

 

12z GFS has it in this neck of the woods.

 

f36.gif

 

 

And the special child of guidance is actually fairly similar to the GFS in this aspect of the system.

 

f36.gif

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

Scientifically. It doesn't seem as if any of the forecasting entities have jumped on board, yet and I'm wondering why. It is a radical solution and I'm curious about the reason why it hasn't caused a major reconsideration among the forecasters yet.

 

According to the NWS Taunton twitter, there was convective feedback causing the NAM's solution to be too warm.

 

Generally speaking, the NAM has a tendency to be a little juicier, warmer, and more amplified at times when the rest of the guidance, and is an outlier.

 

The logic behind no major reconsideration at this time could be any of: discounting it for convective feedback issues, considering it to be an outlier and sticking with consensus, or the reluctance to make major shifts in a forecast based on one model run as a means of achieving continuity from package to package.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Scientifically. It doesn't seem as if any of the forecasting entities have jumped on board, yet and I'm wondering why. It is a radical solution and I'm curious about the reason why it hasn't caused a major reconsideration among the forecasters yet.

Because it's not support by other models (domestic or foreign) in the 12z suite today.

I guess the question to ask you is why would you expect forecasters to jump/react to it?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah much further south than the American guidance has that hang-back area.... hopefully the GFS/NAM combo is closer to right for up here.  The storm totals will hedge on that last burst.

 

 

12z GFS has it in this neck of the woods.

 

 

 

 

And the special child of guidance is actually fairly similar to the GFS in this aspect of the system.

 

 

 

 

RGEM is up there in the timeframe you are showing also (like 21z to 00z)...my timeframe is more like 03z-06z. Everything sags south and there's a little inverted trough signal in E MA/SE NH. The NAM and GFS both have it too, but its more pronounced on the RGEM.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

RGEM is up there in the timeframe you are showing also (like 21z to 00z)...my timeframe is more like 03z-06z. Everything sags south and there's a little inverted trough signal in E MA/SE NH. The NAM and GFS both have it too, but its more pronounced on the RGEM.

Ahh I just saw the timing differences. I thought yours was a 36 hour map. It's hard to tell on the global models especially when it's under a tenth of an inch where the little max is.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

jackpot fetishes and tainted, unpure snows.

LOL, yeah it's "the storm is wonderful for all" as everyone gets snow, etc...then a small change that might cut an extra inch or so and all that kumbaya-snows-for-all takes a backseat if someone's snows are threatened by an inch or two. A little less way down south might spread the wealth a bit more up north.

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