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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Snowing at Phil's and pinging in HFD.

 

That's a nice thump though...big omega. Good hang back moisture too, even possibly down to the pike region.

 

Yeah pretty classic. I think I'll probably change to drizzle or something at like 33F at the tail end and then maybe another fresh coating or so early evening as the temp drops again.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

What I'd give to be in Rindge or even the Poconos for this one...

 

Oh well, I'll have to suffer from my apartment in southern Brooklyn. Expecting a 1-3"/2-4" snowfall then ice, and eventually rain. Places just north of here in NYC proper probably stay below freezing throughout.

 

Interesting that the initial SE track on models produced a colder outcome as Scott says, but the slight movement northward of the track combined with a poor antecedent airmass are now giving us the expected outcomes. Still think BOX is too widespread with the 10-14" given the mid-level warming showing up. Thinking 6-8" in southern Massachusetts ranging towards a foot near Ashburnham. 

SWFEs aren't for us, never have been, never will. We have the rare exceptions like 2/22/08, but the majority are the lousy ones like 12/13/07. Upton unfortunately bit on the colder solutions yesterday and painted 4-8" for the city and coast that will be half that if we're lucky. The freezing rain I am concerned about though-if models at the surface are just maybe 2 degs too warm now, we all will have a nasty period of ZR given we never switch to a warm wind direction and we have plenty of snowcover.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah pretty classic. I think I'll probably change to drizzle or something at like 33F at the tail end and then maybe another fresh coating or so early evening as the temp drops again.

 

 

We may see prolonged weenie snow for hours tomorrow night in E MA/NH as there is sort of an inverted trough look with moisture trapped below 800mb...but 850mb cools to like -10C which would be good for dendritic growth. It wouldn't amount to a lot, but it could be the type of thing that gives a half inch or an inch of fluff on top of whatever happened earlier in the day.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

We may see prolonged weenie snow for hours tomorrow night in E MA/NH as there is sort of an inverted trough look with moisture trapped below 800mb...but 850mb cools to like -10C which would be good for dendritic growth. It wouldn't amount to a lot, but it could be the type of thing that gives a half inch or an inch of fluff on top of whatever happened earlier in the day.

 

Yeah there looks to be some NNE-NE flow aloft off the GOM so I'm hoping to grab an inch of possible.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Any reasoning for calling the NAM garbage?  

Looks nearly identical to the GFS to me:

 

attachicon.gifGFS_3_2014020412_F30_TMPC_500_MB.png

 

attachicon.gifNAM_221_2014020412_F30_TMPC_500_MB.png

 

IMO it's your (lack of) analysis that's garbage.

Did you look at 850's, 700? Night and day difference.

 

GFS gives Ct 6-9 inches of snow..Nam=none

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sankaty

sankaty

Posted
Posted

GFS for MMK area:

 

If I'm reading it correctly, the sounding shows the column comfortably below freezing through 24h (12z).  By 27h (15z), part of the column has just edged above freezing.  Estimating that we're snowing through about 14z.  About .62" qpf has fallen by then, presumably as snow.  About .28" falls afterward, presumably IP/FZ (we never get above freezing at the surface).

 

I'm guessing that the changeover will happen a bit faster than the GFS shows, but that the snow will arrive a little faster, too.  Also expect that the precip will end significantly sooner than progged (it always seems to in these storms), so the IP/FZ will not be as prolific as advertised.

 

So, based on the GFS, with support from last night's EC, expecting 4-6 inches of snow followed by a couple of hours of sleet and freezing rain, which will add a glaze to the snow pack but not have much of an impact otherwise.

 

I'm totally discounting the NAM.  If it's right, though, we'd just have a coating of snow followed by lots of sleet and freezing rain.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

We may see prolonged weenie snow for hours tomorrow night in E MA/NH as there is sort of an inverted trough look with moisture trapped below 800mb...but 850mb cools to like -10C which would be good for dendritic growth. It wouldn't amount to a lot, but it could be the type of thing that gives a half inch or an inch of fluff on top of whatever happened earlier in the day.

I'm

Kind of excited about that trough. Most models show it

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