February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[40/70 Benchmark]

if this run is correct nobody in CT gets more than 2-4" of snow

Right...the NAM is likely a bit too warm, but the point that I was trying to slam home faster than a...well, you know, was that the 00z EURO was too cold...and no one is getting 14".

[40/70 Benchmark]

Agree on 8-10.

8" if you're very lucky.

6-8".

[J Paul Gordon]

What about city of Worcester itself? I don't see  much of a changeover, but I don't have access to the models. Looks like a classic 128/495 mix line maybe north to the pike (as if the storm knows the superhighway system!). Or am I way off here. Does the 850 warm up this far north and for how long?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah I still think a jackpot area from n orh county north and east into the 101 region

My call for the jackpot is Ashburnham or Milford, NH... leaning towards Milford  

[Damage In Tolland]

What about city of Worcester itself? I don't see  much of a changeover, but I don't have access to the models. Looks like a classic 128/495 mix line maybe north to the pike (as if the storm knows the superhighway system!). Or am I way off here. Does the 850 warm up this far north and for how long?

Doesn't the race car have a computer inside?

 

You might get some sleet in ORH for a few hours.  Dual pol will be fun to watch

[CoastalWx]

Right...the NAM is likely a bit too warm, but the point that I was trying to slam home faster than a...well, you know, was that the 00z EURO was too cold...and no one is getting 14".

 

2nd day in a role where I scratch my head at BOX.

[ORH_wxman]

What about city of Worcester itself? I don't see  much of a changeover, but I don't have access to the models. Looks like a classic 128/495 mix line maybe north to the pike (as if the storm knows the superhighway system!). Or am I way off here. Does the 850 warm up this far north and for how long?

 

 

Prob all snow in ORH...could ping at the very end, but it would be largely immaterial to the snow accumulations. I'd go 6-10" for ORH right now and east over to BOS region..maybe more like 8-12" for just north of the city. This won't have a strong coast vs inland gradient between BOS and ORH. Its more a latitude gradient from south to north.

[CoastalWx]

Prob all snow in ORH...could ping at the very end, but it would be largely immaterial to the snow accumulations. I'd go 6-10" for ORH right now and east over to BOS region..maybe more like 8-12" for just north of the city. This won't have a strong coast vs inland gradient between BOS and ORH. Its more a latitude gradient from south to north.

 

That's exactly how I see it too. Was thinking 8 for Logan.

[ORH_wxman]

People have to remember that BOX could be forecasting 10-11" but it shows up as 10-14...thats the way the algorithm is mapped but it doesn't mean they think 14" is falling. That said, I'd probably thin down the 10"+ region just a shade.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Prob all snow in ORH...could ping at the very end, but it would be largely immaterial to the snow accumulations. I'd go 6-10" for ORH right now and east over to BOS region..maybe more like 8-12" for just north of the city. This won't have a strong coast vs inland gradient between BOS and ORH. Its more a latitude gradient from south to north.

Right....last time that I'll mention it, but that BOX map has left me rather quizzical.

Bad week.

[moneypitmike]

My call for the jackpot is Ashburnham or Milford, NH... leaning towards Milford  

 

Yeah--but what street?

 

I'm going 8-11" here.  If I manage more, great.

[ORH_wxman]

Right....last time that I'll mention it, but that BOX map has left me rather quizical.

Bad week.

 

 

Yeah I don't get that strip of smaller amounts right near the coast...but whatever, I'm sure it will change this afternoon. You want your best map in this event to be put out this afternoon/evening. Tha'ts the last one people will remember before waking up tomorrow. I always tried really hard to get that 18 hour lead time map almost perfect.

[CT Rain]

Wow the NAM is hideous. Almost entirely sleet and freezing rain even to the Massachusetts border. Basically no snow for CT! 

[Ginx snewx]

12/15/13 colder

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah I don't get that strip of smaller amounts right near the coast...but whatever, I'm sure it will change this afternoon. You want your best map in this event to be put out this afternoon/evening. Tha'ts the last one people will remember before waking up tomorrow. I always tried really hard to get that 18 hour lead time map almost perfect.

Almost as though with this in mind, they just rushed a climo based map out.

[Randy4Confluence]

This may be our best storm of the season (Lowell/Dracut) so far. I think my largest total so far this season has been around 10".

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM QPF that falls as snow....guidance seems to be honing in on that Rt 2 corridor up into S VT/S NH

 

[Sn0waddict]

12/15/13 colder

Yep, yesterday I noted how these two storms seem to be similar and it's pretty much what I'm expecting around here, except more sleet.

[TheSnowman]

8" if you're very lucky.

6-8".

Ok Time to take bets. I just won Gobs of money predicting Peyton Manning to wet his pants and he did big time. Lucky to get 8". Ha! I'll take the NWS since they are not slightly different from you they're Far different.

RAP looks certainly alright.

[ctsnowstorm628]

12/15/13 colder

Been saying it for days on Twitter.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ok Time to take bets. I just won Gobs of money priced Peyton Manning to wet his pants and he did big time. Lucky to get 8". Ha! I'll take the NWS since they are not slightly different from you they're Far different.

RAP looks certainly alright.

You like 10-14"???

 

If you get 12", don't post until First pich at Fenway.

If you do, I won't.

[CoastalWx]

Almost a wash as far as behavior goes for a SWFE. Despite the further SE track, the antecedent airmass is not that cold from say 850 right to the surface. However, SSTs are colder than our classic Dec '07 and '08 SWFEs.

 

Result, pretty much climo for snowfall distribution...minus small nuances.

[TheSnowman]

You like 10-14"???

 

If you get 12", don't post until First pich at Fenway.

If you do, I won't.

Lol ok! And if any of you guys want to go to Fenway for a game just tell me. My connections are growing Stronger and stronger there.

[nzucker]

RGEM QPF that falls as snow....guidance seems to be honing in on that Rt 2 corridor up into S VT/S NH

 

What I'd give to be in Rindge or even the Poconos for this one...

 

Oh well, I'll have to suffer from my apartment in southern Brooklyn. Expecting a 1-3"/2-4" snowfall then ice, and eventually rain. Places just north of here in NYC proper probably stay below freezing throughout.

 

Interesting that the initial SE track on models produced a colder outcome as Scott says, but the slight movement northward of the track combined with a poor antecedent airmass are now giving us the expected outcomes. Still think BOX is too widespread with the 10-14" given the mid-level warming showing up. Thinking 6-8" in southern Massachusetts ranging towards a foot near Ashburnham. 

[ROOSTA]

 

How close will this homegrown weenie map be?

[TalcottWx]

3-6" bos

Kev 2-4"

Me ray 6-10"

9-12" dendrite

That's the way the 5th currently looks

My post from page 1 is pretty much today's nam

[Damage In Tolland]

GFS much better than NAM

[CoastalWx]

S/W a little sharper this run. Low is a tiny bit slower and a smidge warmer, but wetter solution.

[Damage In Tolland]

S/W a little sharper this run. Low is a tiny bit slower and a smidge warmer, but wetter solution.

Quite a bit colder mid and upper levels too

[CoastalWx]

Classic WSW-ENE gradient on the GFS after 15z tomorrow.