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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

No I didn't..I never like SWFE here, and I'm not the least but shocked that things have trended warmer last minute. I don't think anything I'm stating it remotely ridiculous, 2-4 inches then a lot of ice is definitely a potential reality on the south shore. Noyes map is actually a pretty good depiction of what I think will happen snowfall wise.

 

 

There could def be a narrow zone of decent icing in CT...like DXR area over to the interior Merritt region there. Hard to say for sure...a lot depends on how quick it flips to sleet and then ZR since the bulk of the precip falls in a relatively short time. A couple hours could make the difference between a quarter inch of ZR and just an inch of pellets on top of the snow.

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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
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There could def be a narrow zone of decent icing in CT...like DXR area over to the interior Merritt region there. Hard to say for sure...a lot depends on how quick it flips to sleet and then ZR since the bulk of the precip falls in a relatively short time. A couple hours could make the difference between a quarter inch of ZR and just an inch of pellets on top of the snow.

Agree. The biggest concern for me is just the timing of all this & the impact it will have on the morning commute. These things tend to move in earlier than usual, so I think the snow we get is definitely done/changed over to sleet & ice by 6-8am.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

NAM being so warm aloft is concerning for CT. I remember one SWFE last December where it was too aggressive with the warm punch though. Hopefully that is the case with this one. I'm at least confident in it being overdone with QPF :lol:

 

Don't think its that far over done on qpf, There were a few models spitting out 1.0"+ qpf

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
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There could def be a narrow zone of decent icing in CT...like DXR area over to the interior Merritt region there. Hard to say for sure...a lot depends on how quick it flips to sleet and then ZR since the bulk of the precip falls in a relatively short time. A couple hours could make the difference between a quarter inch of ZR and just an inch of pellets on top of the snow.

DXR to OXC to MMK can get a good ice job.

These are the types of events where people wake up, look outside and see its "raining and hailing", attempt to go to work and sit in traffic for 3hrs because everyone else thought the same thing and theres multiple fender benders on the same road.

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

Posted
Posted

Don't think its that far over done on qpf, There are a few models spitting out 1.0"+ qpf

Yeah, maybe not, I actually thought it was more til I looked at the accumulated precip. panels. I'll never understand 3 hour increments with 6 hr accum. precip. but whatever. I'm just guessing it'll be more in the 0.6-0.75 range.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

The NAM supports Ray's jp area... S NH...   That Rte 101 area in general, as Jay said yesterday makes sense. They do well in these events.

 

8-10" for me, leaning towards the 10"     

You are finally going to get yours.

 

Classic warm/north trend on the SW flow event as we saw a million times in 08-09 and 07-08. These storms almost always play out according to climo: NYC gets 2-4" then ice/rain, northern suburbs get 3-6" then ice, jackpot is from northern Massachusetts into southern NH and over towards the Green Mountains...looks like this one is going to play out that way.

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