February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[CoastalWx]

Everything but the EURO has ticked n.

 

He's gonna taint with IP for a bit if the euro ensemble is right. Me too.

 

However 90% of his snow is already done.

[moneypitmike]

Probably better that it don't it will just make people pissed quicker.............lol

 

Nice run for the southern half of VT and NH.  Lays the groundwork for my trip to Jackson/Barlett next weekend.

[forkyfork]

what an ice storm on the nam for s areas

[dryslot]

Everything but the EURO has ticked n.

 

Euro was north of 12z with the qpf max up here at 0z, So it may have tracked the same but had a broader precip shield

[40/70 Benchmark]

He's gonna taint with IP for a bit if the euro ensemble is right. Me too.

 

However 90% of his snow is already done.

Right.

It won't be a large difference, but I am confident that this area will do a bit better.

Maybe the sleet costs him an inch, and being s of the best banding an inch or two.

1-3" more to the north.

7-11", as opposed to 6-9"

 

All I'm saying.

 

Gun to my head, I see 9", he sees 6.5".

[codfishsnowman]

taint to pike is guaranteed and it doesnt matter if most of its snow first but i have just seen so many times a three or four hr period of inch hr snows and then mixed after and frankly that scenario makes me wish for spring after watching this for the past week.....if i had a dollar for every big wwa snow forecast that delivered half or less of what was forecasted id be buying rounds for everyone at the bar and that is not just dv specific as this was the same back in my bristol ct days

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the New Ipswich, NH area will jack with 12-13".

[codfishsnowman]

Also while we are at it, I see an area near the pike to nrn CT and SE MA that is in a mini sucker hole for an hour or two at the onset of snow. Basically it's an area in between frontogenesis where it snows to the north and south. Eventually this area is consumed by a WAA omega thump, but I see this as something to watch.

omg just gets worse and worse and and i trust your anaylsis a lot....i wish i could just make myself not be interested

[Damage In Tolland]

Right.

It won't be a large difference, but I am confident that this area will do a bit better.

Maybe the sleet costs him an inch, and being s of the best banding an inch or two.

1-3" more to the north.

7-11", as opposed to 6-9"

 

All I'm saying.

 

Gun to my head, I see 9", he sees 6.5".

I'll be in the 8-10 inch range.. You prob 11-12

[Sn0waddict]

 

Here's Phil's map:

 

 

CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather  1h

Still feel this is a good starting point for tomorrow: pic.twitter.com/11OspDn917

 

 

 

 

 

Projecting that map, that implies around 5+ inches down here. I would be shocked if we see 3. I think this is going to be a giant ice storm the Southern Half of the state. Not happy at all about this.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

If someone can over me a clad explanation as to why:

1) The gradient will run along 495, as opposed to the pike

2) 12" of snow will be widespread, then I'm all ears.

Its not an imby thing....I have no problem with placing the jackpot in s NH

The way I interpreted these kind of events is the line does in fact run pike oriented as opposed the 495, so that's a good point.

I think you over to southern nh and southern vt will jackpot, in those areas I could see a foot maybe 14"' I think they get could tone it down a bit and be golden.

The real wild card I think, is interior southeast ma northern Rhode Island and north east Connecticut. How far does the sleet get? When does it get there?

I think it's totally plausible 8-10 falls, and we end with some sleet. Going to be nasty out there one way or another

[Damage In Tolland]

Projecting that map, that implies around 5+ inches down here. I would be shocked if we see 3. I think this is going to be a giant ice storm the Southern Half of the state. Not happy at all about this.

I don't see that at all. You might get a fair amount of sleet..but zr shouldn't be a huge deal. Stop spending so much time in the NYC threads

[CoastalWx]

omg just gets worse and worse

 

I think you are interpreting something that I did not imply. It basically means a later start time, but those areas catch up. At the worst it might cost them an inch or two. I could see people whining about this tomorrow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll be in the 8-10 inch range.. You prob 11-12

I'll say this.

 

I think its more likely that I bust low for you, than low for me.

I'm confident that I'll be under 1'.

[dryslot]

I think you are interpreting something that I did not imply. It basically means a later start time, but those areas catch up. At the worst it might cost them an inch or two. I could see people whining about this tomorrow.

 

If the Nam is right you can untie PF from the chairlift

[Damage In Tolland]

This seems your typical"it comes in like a wall" snow..Just overspreads the entire area from south to north

[Sn0waddict]

I don't see that at all. You might get a fair amount of sleet..but zr shouldn't be a huge deal. Stop spending so much time in the NYC threads

Just going by what I see. These SWFE events tend to warm us up fast at 850 down here. The initial burst of snow tends to overperform, but it doesn't last long at all. Also, low levels tend to hang on longer, especially considering we have snow on the ground. So I see myself going over to 27F and FZRA fairly quick. I would love the 4-8 inches that is forecasted for me, but the trends keep pointing in the wrong direction.

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes map:

 

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[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just going by what I see. These SWFE events tend to warm us up fast at 850 down here. The initial burst of snow tends to overperform, but it doesn't last long at all. Also, low levels tend to hang on longer, especially considering we have snow on the ground. So I see myself going over to 27F and FZRA fairly quick. I would love the 4-8 inches that is forecasted for me, but the trends keep pointing in the wrong direction.

Did you think it would trend south? Every met on here last two days has said that these tend to trend a bit north at the end...to me this is right on track.

Prob best to stay out of nyc forum, they dont have many mets and theres only a couple of logical folks there....

[bmj16725]

NAM is really warm really early down here at the mid levels - at 12Z it is above 0 at 750 - almost all sleet/ZR in central CT if correct.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I hate snow maps when they dont include icing problems. Any tool will look and think 4" is nothing in S CT....then when they bust their fanny on a "wet" sidewalk cuz its really ice. they'll complain that the weathermen dont know crap.

[Ginx snewx]

Love your new Ray fetish, but I'll bet you that I beat Kevin in this event.

Loser does not post until April.

bet this point is no one cares if you do. Great storms, those whose desire to get an inch more than the next town will be happy, those who love being outside in the snow availing themselves of winters bounty will be happier. 8-12

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

Noyes map:

 

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Best map out there imo.

[40/70 Benchmark]

bet this point is no one cares if you do. Great storms, those whose desire to get an inch more than the next town will be happy, those who love being outside in the snow availing themselves of winters bounty will be happier. 8-12

I'm just making a prediction, which you disagreed with, but copped out when asked to wager.

 

Glad we agree, then.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM has a very impressive warm push above 850mb...more typical of some of the stronger SWFEs. We'll see how other guidance comes in.

[Sn0waddict]

Did you think it would trend south? Every met on here last two days has said that these tend to trend a bit north at the end...to me this is right on track.

Prob best to stay out of nyc forum, they dont have many mets and theres only a couple of logical folks there....

No I didn't..I never like SWFE here, and I'm not the least but shocked that things have trended warmer last minute. I don't think anything I'm stating it remotely ridiculous, 2-4 inches then a lot of ice is definitely a potential reality on the south shore. Noyes map is actually a pretty good depiction of what I think will happen snowfall wise.

[40/70 Benchmark]

For the record, I have much larger concerns than whether or not I get an inch more of snow than Tolland, CT.

 

I honselty don't care right now...probably make my life easier if I got whiffed.

[CoastalWx]

NAM taints nrn CT before 12z.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Best map out there imo.

 

That 4" number looks very reasonable for MBY

[TalcottWx]

Best map out there imo.

Fox 25 lady map was similar at 9am