February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[CoastalWx]

I see it going from like NYC to UUU

 

Nah, tickle that north.

[ORH_wxman]

I see it going from like NYC to UUU

 

It will have trend south..no guidance has that track. Regardless, it doesn't matter that much given that above 850mb it is where most of the meat is happening.

[klw]

I suppose it is a hybrid B/SWFE?

Ahh the rarely seen Miller BS.    

 

Looking juicy

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/serad25.jpg

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Ahh the rarely seen Miller BS.

lol, thanks for the diversion that about sums it up. It's Miller time and not Miller lite.

[TalcottWx]

I'm telling you guys, this is one of those newfangled Miller C's.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let's get back to the storm discussion.  09z SREFs just cam out, for those who care.  Pretty juiced up.  24h probs are over 1" for all of SNE up to the NH border.  0c 850 line gets up basically to the CT/MA border over to S of BOS(Brockton).

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm sorry, but a true Miller B does not have a 850 low passing overhead. It just doesn't.

I was driving, but I was going to post what Will did.

Miller Bs and swfe are not mutually exclusive.

 

We have a transfer, so technically it more of a Miller B evoloution than it is Miller A, but the mid flow is from the sw, hence it is a swfe event.

 

There are two types of cyclogenesis, Miller A and B.

This not an A.

SWFE is a subcatogorey of Miller B.

[codfishsnowman]

I hope you ping.

if he pings then so do i and its been almost insufferable around here relatively speaking for a winter thats has a wealth of events so far

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I can't enjoy this storm unless I know what type it is, so please finish this debate before tonight.

 

On a real note if this is a more traditional SWFE I think the totals may be high down here.  4-6" seems good...but I am optimistic the KTAN maps are right.  It's just that we seem to miss the best precip in these events until the change line is upon us, it dumps for an hour and then flips.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Leon dominating! 2/11/94 was just great and Ray said earlier they were way south of the Pike specials. Everyone is sick of hearing it but when I read the bumped Miller thread all I could think of was 94, overrunning, swfe, Miller B, just look at tonight's GFS porn

No I didn't.

What I said was that you keep pounding your chest, while proclaiming that Leon is a perfect analog, but there was much less snow beyond the s shore to the s.

Providence had much less.

That isn't the case this year.....but in the same breath, you mock my "regression to the mean" motto because CT is still beating out areas to the n.

That was not happeneing in 1994, so which is it?

Scooters area on the s shore cleaned up via oes, but south of there was a sharp cutoff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That's a weird map and not necessarily the distribution that will happen.

I said the same thing.

1) Its too heavy....the 10-14" zone should be like 8-12.

2) I'm not sure why they have more of a marine stratification to the snowfall distribution.....it should be more latitudinal in a swfe.

 

Strange map, and I'm sure that it will change.

[CoastalWx]

I was driving, but I was going to post what Will did.

Miller Bs and swfe are not mutually exclusive.

 

We have a transfer, so technically it more of a Miller B evoloution than it is Miller A, but the mid flow is from the sw, hence it is a swfe event.

 

There are two types of cyclogenesis, Miller A and B.

This not an A.

SWFE is a subcatogorey of Miller B.

 

Right, it's like a subsidiary in the sense of a redevelopment, but not a true Miller B.  If you want a true Miller B, check out the 06z GFS.

[moneypitmike]

Many do understand, I would take a whole winter full of them,There are a few that refuse to

 

As would I--in a heartbeat.

 

if he pings then so do i and its been almost insufferable around here relatively speaking for a winter thats has a wealth of events so far

 

LOL--I hope you were able to read that I was joking (the smiley face gives it away.).

 

20.6/15

[40/70 Benchmark]

Unfortunately for Rays never ending wish to beat Kevin the Euro does not flip him. 8-10 NCT! I flip briefly after 8-10

Love your new Ray fetish, but I'll bet you that I beat Kevin in this event.

 

Loser does not post until April.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That EURO run is too cold imo, but we'll see.

 

My cards are on the table.

[powderfreak]

Love your new Ray fetish, but I'll bet you that I beat Kevin in this event.

Loser does not post until April.

Ahh that ups the ante.

[dryslot]

Nam looks icy

[Damage In Tolland]

Here's Phil's map:

 

 

CapeCodWeather.Net ‏@capecodweather  1h

Still feel this is a good starting point for tomorrow: pic.twitter.com/11OspDn917

 

 

 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

BOX amped up the #s.

General idea looks good IMO. 10-14 may be too widespread though

[CoastalWx]

NAM is quite the dump after 12z tomorrow.

[dryslot]

NAM is quite the dump after 12z tomorrow.

 

Ripped, Primary stronger further north

[moneypitmike]

NAM is quite the dump after 12z tomorrow.

 

I wish the NCEP site would update as fast as what you're looking at.

[40/70 Benchmark]

General idea looks good IMO. 10-14 may be too widespread though

If someone can over me a clad explanation as to why:

1) The gradient will run along 495, as opposed to the pike

2) 12" of snow will be widespread, then I'm all ears.

 

Its not an imby thing....I have no problem with placing the jackpot in s NH

[dryslot]

I wish the NCEP site would update as fast as what you're looking at.

 

Probably better that it don't it will just make people pissed quicker.............lol

[Clinch Leatherwood]

NAM is quite the dump after 12z tomorrow.

 

Lot of you guys get hammered.  I figure 4-5" here.  Looks like a faster flip this time and we're going to battle that issue of precip struggling until the last push down this way.

[CoastalWx]

NAM is the NAM though. It loves to flood everything warm it seems, but I agree the taint line gets close to BOS-ORH..maybe a few miles south.

[dryslot]

NAM is the NAM though. It loves to flood everything warm it seems, but I agree the taint line gets close to BOS-ORH..maybe a few miles south.

 

If its off on the thermals, Thats one heck of a dump for quite a few here

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAM

Everything but the EURO has ticked n.

[CoastalWx]

Also while we are at it, I see an area near the pike to nrn CT and SE MA that is in a mini sucker hole for an hour or two at the onset of snow. Basically it's an area in between frontogenesis where it snows to the north and south. Eventually this area is consumed by a WAA omega thump, but I see this as something to watch.

[40/70 Benchmark]

NAM is the NAM though. It loves to flood everything warm it seems, but I agree the taint line gets close to BOS-ORH..maybe a few miles south.

Glad we agree.