February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[H2Otown_WX]

ALB went balls to the wall

 

I noticed they tend to overdo it. It makes sense too, the public is likely less angry and certainly less in danger when you bust high than when you bust low.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Box' 10-14" is def. high....Highest range that I'd entertain in the jp zone would be 8-12".

I really like the  general 8-10" range, though.

That will be dead on.

[moneypitmike]

These setups always seem to move a bit quicker than modeled. If people keep their expectations in the lower range of the BOX forecast there should be no disappointment

 

Agree with you on that, Chris.  Early in, early out.

[Damage In Tolland]

This is going to linger lighter snows a lot longer than some of these posts we're seeing. It'll still be snowing Wed evening into nite.

[TalcottWx]

This is going to linger lighter snows a lot longer than some of these posts we're seeing. It'll still be snowing Wed evening into nite.

I don't see more than 1-3" being added with that though probably.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't see more than 1-3" being added with that though probably.

Right..but some of these posts seems like they think it's going to snow for 8-10 hours and end

[NorEastermass128]

Right..but some of these posts seems like they think it's going to snow for 8-10 hours and end

It may end as a period of light snow (D-1") where the moon is dimly visible like tonight.

[Damage In Tolland]

It may end as a period of light snow (D-1") where the moon is dimly visible like tonight.

Plenty of hang back deform snows . And yes in SNE

[Patrick-02540]

I think there will be a swath of "density jackpot snows" from Danbury ENE to Boston.  Well north of that may win the fluff game.  But fluff is fluff.  But that Danbury to Boston corridor should have the heaviest coat shakes in the mudroom.

[TalcottWx]

Plenty of hang back deform snows . And yes in SNE

It looks to be centered around CNE. North and east of you on the ensemble members 

[Damage In Tolland]

It looks to be centered around CNE. North and east of you on the ensemble members

Certainly possible but with the confluence strengthening and such tight clustering of euro: euro ens I think we'll see it south of GFS depiction

[OceanStWx]

Plenty of hang back deform snows . And yes in SNE

 

We're not really looking at deformation in the wake of this low. The only closed feature is progged at 850 mb (and it's opening with time). If we were looking at deformation of the flow it would be well north of SNE.

 

What the models are spitting out for QPF after 00z Thursday is mostly due to strung out vorticity and some leftover frontogenesis related to wind speed convergence. However, the main shortwave trough axis has passed the region by this time, so forcing is nothing to write home about. I wouldn't be hanging my hat on appreciable snowfall after 00z.

 

[TalcottWx]

We're not really looking at deformation in the wake of this low. The only closed feature is progged at 850 mb (and it's opening with time). If we were looking at deformation of the flow it would be well north of SNE.

 

What the models are spitting out for QPF after 00z Thursday is mostly due to strung out vorticity and some leftover frontogenesis related to wind speed convergence. However, the main shortwave trough axis has passed the region by this time, so forcing is nothing to write home about. I wouldn't be hanging my hat on appreciable snowfall after 00z.

 

Area where the precip is depicted nicely on 700 omega nam too similar to gfs depiction

[Damage In Tolland]

We're not really looking at deformation in the wake of this low. The only closed feature is progged at 850 mb (and it's opening with time). If we were looking at deformation of the flow it would be well north of SNE.

What the models are spitting out for QPF after 00z Thursday is mostly due to strung out vorticity and some leftover frontogenesis related to wind speed convergence. However, the main shortwave trough axis has passed the region by this time, so forcing is nothing to write home about. I wouldn't be hanging my hat on appreciable snowfall after 00z.

Well yeah.. What I was saying was hang back light snow. Not continued pounding. Like another 1-3 type thing

[OceanStWx]

Well yeah.. What I was saying was hang back light snow. Not continued pounding. Like another 1-3 type thing

 

And I'm saying toss the 3, unless you live on the Midcoast of Maine.

[J Paul Gordon]

Can't find the BOX map on the main page of the SNE NOAA site. Where is it?

[Connecticut Appleman]

Can't find the BOX map on the main page of the SNE NOAA site. Where is it?

Here is the link.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php#

[J Paul Gordon]

Here is the link.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php#

Thanks

[snowgeek]

I noticed they tend to overdo it. It makes sense too, the public is likely less angry and certainly less in danger when you bust high than when you bust low.

Seems to be a new habit. This year they forecast high. They used to be more conservative.

[snowgeek]

Seems to be a new habit. This year they forecast high. They used to be more conservative.

Bob Kovachick on Ch. 13 in Albany showed this graphic tonight. Bringing the models to the masses lol.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Snows will likely linger pike on north.

[wxsniss]

Out of it's 10-hour accuracy range, but 0z Nam ticks south vs. 12z... this winter's personality continues

[ORH_wxman]

I could see this evolving similar to the NAM...has that Rt 2/border-region jackpot.

[Ginx snewx]

Out of it's 10-hour accuracy range, but 0z Nam ticks south vs. 12z... this winter's personality continues

no is colder but pulls Che and spreads the wealth much more, juicy lucy

[dryslot]

no is colder but pulls Che and spreads the wealth much more, juicy lucy

 

Yeah it pushed the .50" qpf line further north up here, Pushed the .75" qpf up close to PWM as it was south around biddeford, Its the Nam but that a bump up on qpf

[wxsniss]

no is colder but pulls Che and spreads the wealth much more, juicy lucy

 

exactly

 

850 temps definitely colder and slp track ticked south, but the CCB stuff is more generous for CNE...

nice to see as there's some anticipation of northward ticks as we get closer

 

quite the model consensus... seems atypically good

[OceanStWx]

I could see this evolving similar to the NAM...has that Rt 2/border-region jackpot.

 

I do like the placement of that 1"+ QPF stripe. Interesting hole below 0.75" right over Tolland.

[CT Rain]

I do like the placement of that 1"+ QPF stripe. Interesting hole below 0.75" right over Tolland.

Qpf perfection... Mpm gets his 1" and Kevin is in the anti-jackpot

[Ginx snewx]

Qpf perfection... Mom gets his 1" and Kevin is in the anti-jackpot

mom is a he?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Tolland fetishes continue. Great discussion fellas.