February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[TalcottWx]

Just don't drive the race car and you'll be fine

Ricky Bobby is not a thinker. Ricky Bobby is a driver. He is a doer. And that's what you need to do. You don't need to think. You need to drive. You need speed. You need to go out there, and you need to rev your engine. You need to fire it up. You need to grab a hold of that line between speed and chaos, and you need to wrestle it to the ground like a demon cobra! And then, when the fear rises up in your belly, you use it. And you know that fear is powerful, because it has been there for billions of years. And it is good. And you use it. And you ride it; you ride it like a skeleton horse through the gates of hell, and then you win, Ricky. You WIN! And you don't win for anybody else. You win for you, you know why? Because a man takes what he wants. He takes it all. And you're a man, aren't you? Aren't you?

[TalcottWx]

I could def see an ASH/FIT/BED type of jackpot of 10-12"... maybe out your way

I think best omega is north of me at the end of the storm and I probably dryslot but just barely... Maybe 101 in SNH region?

[dryslot]

12z ECMWF ensembles same as the 12z op run

[MainePhotog]

GYX has placed Winter Storm Watches for Wednesday.

 

And GYX map:

 

 

[TalcottWx]

GYX has placed Winter Storm Watches for Wednesday.

 

And GYX map:

York county could be a mini jackpot area as well.

[ORH_wxman]

I think best omega is north of me at the end of the storm and I probably dryslot but just barely... Maybe 101 in SNH region?

 

 

I think the better WAA thump will be south of that though, so I'd probably pick something closer to Rt 2 for a jackpot if I had to guess at this second...since even though better light snow may linger to the north, it will still be lingering near Rt 2 as well and they will have taken more advantage of the initial thump I think.

 

Who knows for sure though until we are almost on top of the event.

[dryslot]

GYX has placed Winter Storm Watches for Wednesday.

 

And GYX map:

 

Reasonable

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I don't know...will let the pros do their thing but this one wreaks of a system that will end up further south than modeled right now as we go from the stronger low earlier runs to the more sheared/1/2 type punch that has been so prominent this year.

[mreaves]

I don't know...will let the pros do their thing but this one wreaks of a system that will end up further south than modeled right now as we go from the stronger low earlier runs to the more sheared/1/2 type punch that has been so prominent this year.

Just trying to inch PF closer to the edge of the lift chair aren't you?

[TalcottWx]

I think the better WAA thump will be south of that though, so I'd probably pick something closer to Rt 2 for a jackpot if I had to guess at this second...since even though better light snow may linger to the north, it will still be lingering near Rt 2 as well and they will have taken more advantage of the initial thump I think.

 

Who knows for sure though until we are almost on top of the event.

Tip jackpot maybe

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Just trying to inch PF closer to the edge of the lift chair aren't you?

 

Ha!  not really as I'm not speaking directly about what it'll do to that area.  I just like the idea of another disjointed system vs the stronger but we will see.  Will refrain from commenting much until the 0z runs which I'm thinking may head that way solidly.  We seem to often get a clearer picture of part b as part a is wound down.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think the highest amounts are going to be from about ORH down to about the Meritt Pkwy in CT. Best fronto and lift in that area and just to the north of the mix line

[RobbieL241]

I think the highest amounts are going to be from about ORH down to about the Meritt Pkwy in CT. Best fronto and lift in that area and just to the north of the mix line

I concur.

[dendrite]

Think I'm going with a S VT/Monads jackpot.

[powderfreak]

Think I'm going with a S VT/Monads jackpot.

 

I concur... RT 2 north into SVT and Monadnocks highlands.  They could rip some slightly better ratios and always have that little extra elevation going for them with a bunch of inhabited areas in the 1,500-2,500ft range.

 

I could also sort of see another max zone somewhere in CT just north of the mix line if the hefty QPF can work just north of the mix line.  But the lingering higher ratio snows can really top off the totals up in SVT/SNH.

[RobbieL241]

[dendrite]

That map is pretty much my thinking.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Not bad. I'd slide 8-10 down for most of Bristol and Plymouth counties away from the shore

[RI Rob]

Looks a bit high imo, about right in Boston though.

[RobbieL241]

Not bad. I'd slide 8-10 down for most of Bristol and Plymouth counties away from the shore

Might need to bring down the 8-10 through all of NE CT with the guidance continuing to tick colder.  But its still a good map for now.

[free_man]

10-14" here, seems pretty ballsy but we'll see.

[dendrite]

10-14" here, seems pretty ballsy but we'll see.

1" liquid plus banding would say it's not too ballsy. Of course the key is pinpointing where the best frontogenetic banding will align.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Might need to bring down the 8-10 through all of NE CT with the guidance continuing to tick colder. But its still a good map for now.

Yeah, they already slid it down some since yesterday. If trends continue it will likely continue to slide

[ORH_wxman]

BOX map is a good starting point...might be a bit bullish regarding widspread 10"+ totals in the jackpot zone...but I can't really find too much worng with the map at the moment. Can always tweak north or south as we get another round of guidance in after tonight.

[weathafella]

Looks a bit high imo, about right in Boston though.

Why do you think it's high?

[RI Rob]

Why do you think it's high?

I just think the higher totals are a bit too widespread. 

[tamarack]

GYX has placed Winter Storm Watches for Wednesday.

 

And GYX map:

 

Given the last gfs run, I'd take the 4-6", though If that map verifies, I'd slide back into last place among Maine peeps.

[dryslot]

Given the last gfs run, I'd take the 4-6", though If that map verifies, I'd slide back into last place among Maine peeps.

Lol that's my spot

[OceanStWx]

Think I'm going with a S VT/Monads jackpot.

 

A little farther south than the typical SWFE jackpots, I like it.

 

[OceanStWx]

10-14" here, seems pretty ballsy but we'll see.

 

If I said 10-11" would you say that's too bullish? Try to ignore the high end of that range.