February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[SnowMan]

The point where the warm, cold, and occluded fronts meet at various levels. Your secondary lows form in this area. I'd go into more detail but I'm on my phone.

Thanks

[dryslot]

Same here...ironically looks like one of the DGEX runs from yesterday haha. I don't know why I've been looking at that but I like the weenie solutions haha. Sucks this isn't even 5 days out yet, lol.

Only a matter of time before the GGEM goes to a full blown 976mb cutter and then back to a coast scraper the next run. Surprised we haven't seen that yet.

 

You mean similar to 12z today.......

 

 

[powderfreak]

You mean similar to 12z today.......

yeah, though I'm surprised the model hasn't put that low over Toronto or something in a fully phased bomb where it's raining in Montreal but snowing in DC haha.

[weathafella]

It seems clear that someone is going to get it good from this...very strong signal. I like dendrite's chances along with coldfront and all in between.

[SnowGoose69]

Same here...ironically looks like one of the DGEX runs from yesterday haha. I don't know why I've been looking at that but I like the weenie solutions haha. Sucks this isn't even 5 days out yet, lol.

Only a matter of time before the GGEM goes to a full blown 976mb cutter and then back to a coast scraper the next run. Surprised we haven't seen that yet.

 

I'm significantly suspicious of the good model agreement on this event...I don't know who but I swore one of the Mets on this forum said last year if the NOGAPS looks like the GFS/Euro beyond Day 5 there is going to be some sort of major shift in the more reliable models in the next 2-3 days and that theory has seemed to verify more than once since I've been watching for that...seeing the DGEX similar too is amazing...I stand by my idea there is going to be some kind of largescale change on the storm by the 12Z Saturday models at the latest, just don't know what.

[CoastalWx]

I'm significantly suspicious of the good model agreement on this event...I don't know who but I swore one of the Mets on this forum said last year if the NOGAPS looks like the GFS/Euro beyond Day 5 there is going to be some sort of major shift in the more reliable models in the next 2-3 days and that theory has seemed to verify more than once since I've been watching for that...seeing the DGEX similar too is amazing...I stand by my idea there is going to be some kind of largescale change on the storm by the 12Z Saturday models at the latest, just don't know what.

 

The storm is a lock..question is ptype based on track. The track certainly is not set in stone.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensemble and op look similar. Definitely an ice threat for nrn CT through ORH. Hopefully it doesn't trend warmer.

[Ginx snewx]

Euro ensemble and op look similar. Definitely an ice threat for nrn CT through ORH. Hopefully it doesn't trend warmer.

Thats a beauty of a snowstorm for the folks who have winter sports interests

[Ginx snewx]

LOl, well that includes me, build up the bases, IMHO, block is strong, redeveloper, Euro overamped. right now I am watching Monday first. things change so much so quickly this year, trying to see the trees through the forest seems a good idea.

[Ginx snewx]

Something to keep in mind, even though ens bring up 850's above 0 their mean on surface temps is below 32 for places like BDL, literally a snow thump to ice situation

[forkyfork]

the euro ens mean keeps getting stronger with the primary sfc low

[weathafella]

This system can tap a lot of cold. Sub 500 thickness nearby. It will have a better outcome the weaker it is to a point.

[Ginx snewx]

This system can tap a lot of cold. Sub 500 thickness nearby. It will have a better outcome the weaker it is to a point.

Lots of time to watch this Juicy Lucy

[weathafella]

12/16/07 on the 18z GFS.

[CoastalWx]

12/16/07 on the 18z GFS.

 

GFS is consistent with a wicked front end thump before we go to rain here. Obviously subject to change.

[Ginx snewx]

12/16/07 on the 18z GFS.

with ice

[powderfreak]

GFS is consistent with a wicked front end thump before we go to rain here. Obviously subject to change.

 

Yeah that's warning snows in like 4-6 hours for folks prior to any change over.  Its been looking better for those south of the Pike, too...so they can get in on some front end thump before ice.

[powderfreak]

12/16/07 on the 18z GFS.

 

Pretty textbook SWFE...look how far west that vort max is along with the H7 low.  Glad this is running into some cold air or else it would be ugly if the upper levels pan out like that.  Thumpity thump though, impressive.

 

[CoastalWx]

Apparently Poo-Poo Pete B called this a non-snow event. That translates to warning criteria usually.

[40/70 Benchmark]

the euro ens mean keeps getting stronger with the primary sfc low

You loved the last system and I got an inch.

[weathafella]

Apparently Poo-Poo Pete B called this a non-snow event. That translates to warning criteria usually.

What guidance doesn't show at least several inches? Wtf?

[CoastalWx]

What guidance doesn't show at least several inches? Wtf?

 

Maybe trying to be a Maverick. I dunno.

[Ginx snewx]

What guidance doesn't show at least several inches? Wtf?

Epic ice storm for some unlucky soul, Hippy valley?

[dryslot]

Looks like things are starting to line up for snow and siggy ice for some with a little rain to boot

[Ginx snewx]

Wow, gridded data  ORH

our	Valid
Time	2mT
°F	Max
Temp °F	Min
Temp °F	Td
°F	10m 
Wind mph	925mb
Wind mph	850mb
wind mph	Total
Precip(")	Conv.
Precip(")	500-1000
THKNS	500mb
Height	500mb
Temp °C	850mb
Temp °C	925mb
Temp °C	MSLP
mb	Total
Cloud Cover	850mb
Td(°C)

132	 Wed 02/05 06Z	 23 °	 25 °	23 °	22 °	E 7	 SE 13	 S 25	0.14	0.00	539	 560	 -17 °	 -7 °	 -7 °	 1027	 99 %	 -7 °
135	 Wed 02/05 09Z	 23 °	 23 °	23 °	22 °	ENE 11	 ESE 27	 S 31	0.36	0.00	542	 560	 -14 °	 -5 °	 -7 °	 1022	 100 %	 -5 °
138	 Wed 02/05 12Z	 26 °	 26 °	23 °	26 °	ENE 16	 ESE 36	 SSE 43	0.53	0.00	547	 560	 -14 °	 -2 °	 -4 °	 1016	 100 %	 -2 °
141	 Wed 02/05 15Z	 31 °	 31 °	26 °	31 °	ENE 16	 E 34	 SSW 31	0.48	0.00	551	 559	 -14 °	 3 °	 -1 °	 1011	 100 %	 3 °
144	 Wed 02/05 18Z	 32 °	 32 °	26 °	32 °	NE 9	 E 9	 WSW 36	0.13	0.00	551	 556	 -14 °	 5 °	 1 °	 1006	 100 %	 4 °
147	 Wed 02/05 21Z	 32 °	 32 °	32 °	32 °	NE 2	 WSW 7	 WSW 47	0.13	0.00	550	 554	 -15 °	 4 °	 3 °	 1004	 100 %	 1 °
150	 Thu 02/06 00Z	 33 °	 33 °	32 °	33 °	SW 4	 WSW 25	 W 36	0.06	0.00	548	 552	 -16 °	 2 °	 3 °	 1004	 100 %	 1 °

BDL

29	 Wed 02/05 03Z	 26 °	 27 °	26 °	20 °	ESE 2	 SSE 13	 S 16	0.02	0.00	538	 562	 -17 °	 -7 °	 -7 °	 1029	 98 %	 -7 °
132	 Wed 02/05 06Z	 25 °	 27 °	25 °	24 °	E 9	 SE 20	 SSW 34	0.22	0.00	541	 562	 -16 °	 -5 °	 -6 °	 1026	 99 %	 -5 °
135	 Wed 02/05 09Z	 25 °	 25 °	25 °	24 °	ENE 13	 SE 34	 S 43	0.37	0.00	546	 562	 -14 °	 -3 °	 -5 °	 1020	 100 %	 -3 °
138	 Wed 02/05 12Z	 29 °	 29 °	25 °	28 °	ENE 18	 ESE 38	 S 47	0.42	0.00	551	 561	 -14 °	 3 °	 -2 °	 1014	 100 %	 2 °
141	 Wed 02/05 15Z	 32 °	 32 °	28 °	32 °	NE 11	 ESE 16	 SW 43	0.34	0.00	552	 560	 -14 °	 4 °	 2 °	 1009	 100 %	 4 °
144	 Wed 02/05 18Z	 33 °	 33 °	28 °	33 °	NE 4	 WSW 4	 W 43	0.12	0.00	552	 557	 -14 °	 6 °	 3 °	 1006	 100 %	 5 °
147	 Wed 02/05 21Z	 33 °	 33 °	33 °	33 °	 CALM	 WSW 25	 WSW 49	0.12	0.00	551	 554	 -14 °	 4 °	 6 °	 1004	 100 %	 2 °

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ride the Euro and GFS

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12/16/07 on the 18z GFS.

 

That came in like a wall of white out here.  Flurries to SN+ in minutes. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Epic ice storm for some unlucky soul, Hippy valley?

 

King of CAD.   Nothing says winter like thumping snow followed by .25" ice accretion.

[dryslot]

12/16/07 on the 18z GFS.

 

7.5" snow/sleet/ice

[klw]

12/16/07 on the 18z GFS.

Just as long as it doesn't turn into 12/22/07 (is that the date?)  I was living in Bethlehem NH and went to 24 inches on the ground to nothing in a day.