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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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CTWeatherFreak

CTWeatherFreak

Posted
Posted

Two things. NAM can show whatever it wants. I don't buy its solution at the moment until the other guidance shows this.

 

Also, this likely will tick north a tad so the chance for sleet is higher from GHG to HFD and points south.

 

Thanks Scott....  I just would find it ironic if the Nam, showing the transfer considerably farther north than most other guidance wound up leading the way in portraying the ultimate outcome.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Thanks Scott....  I just would find it ironic if the Nam, showing the transfer considerably farther north than most other guidance wound up leading the way in portraying the ultimate outcome.

 

 

Honestly, the NAM could be right...but because it can be so untrustworthy....it would not sway me one bit until the rest of the guidance comes out. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yeah I know. Pretty sweet. Looks like the confluence to the north is a bit better.

 

 

Yeah it shoves the vortmax a bit further south...not sure I buy it. Looks a bit cold to me, but it would be just about a perfect track for BOS-ORH corridor and up into far S NH.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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You think that s/w diving out of Canda is helping t reinforce that?  I feel it's helping to hold the confluence just enough.

 

That lobe swinging down is what is keeping this from running into SNE. You can see how it swoops SE and compresses the height field.

 

However, still about 24 hrs left for it to tick north...and we should wait and see what the EC is doing.

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted

That lobe swinging down is what is keeping this from running into SNE. You can see how it swoops SE and compresses the height field.

However, still about 24 hrs left for it to tick north...and we should wait and see what the EC is doing.

If it ticked slightly SE from earlier I think our goalposts for adjustment are pretty honed in at this point. You guys have said a 24 hr range north adjustment is typical so I wouldn't be surprised if it does, but it seems like if it does it'll be within a small range.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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I thought it was where the OES maxes out?

 

The closer you are to the mixing line...the quicker you'll usually dryslot too. Those close to the mix line are usually getting precip from strong WAA so when that shuts off..so does the precip.

 

But, sometimes like in 12/13/07 it can result in a small W-E jack zone.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
Posted

The closer you are to the mixing line...the quicker you'll usually dryslot too. Those close to the mix line are usually getting precip from strong WAA so when that shuts off..so does the precip.

But, sometimes like in 12/13/07 it can result in a small W-E jack zone.

I like from ORH-MHT for a 8-12" type deal. Northern CT/RI closer to the 8".

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I like from ORH-MHT for a 8-12" type deal. Northern CT/RI closer to the 8".

Sent from my iPhone

 

Yeah I like N of the pike through S VT/S NH right now for the best combo of WAA snow thump and then hanging on to the ML fronto/pseudo-CCB type stuff on the tail of the system.

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
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Yeah I like N of the pike through S VT/S NH right now for the best combo of WAA snow thump and then hanging on to the ML fronto/pseudo-CCB type stuff on the tail of the system.

Yeah whoever gets the combo of WAA and CCB and doesn't ping will likely see the most.

People in NNE are starting to get edgy, but I think ML fronto will surprise some that a displaced from the actual CCB.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

Posted
Posted

Not sure I buy the QPF depiction of the 12Z GFS.  Assuming that 500 mb setup verifies... cyclonic vorticity advection (referring only to the rotational component of vorticity) and positive shear vorticity (du/dy) look great over SNE, but the competition between +CVA and negative shear vorticity combined with UL confluence over NNE should limit vertical velocities (and perhaps some sinking), resulting in limited QPF along the northern cutoff.  I would expect this sharp latitudinal drop-off of PVA to support a mesoscale band of heavy precip along the northern edge.  A broad region of isentropic lift / WAA should help accumulations for those further north, but probably not to the extent that the GFS is showing. 

 

So, what I would expect is a band of higher QPF right around, say, the -8 C contour, with little or nothing north of the -10 C.  Let's see what happens :)

 

(edited to change -12 C to -10 C)

 

post-378-0-05946100-1391444160_thumb.gif

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Not sure I buy the QPF depiction of the 12Z GFS.  Assuming that 500 mb setup verifies... cyclonic vorticity advection (referring only to the rotational component of vorticity) and positive shear vorticity (du/dy) look great over SNE, but the competition between +CVA and negative shear vorticity combined with UL confluence over NNE should limit vertical velocities (and perhaps some sinking), resulting in limited QPF along the northern cutoff.  I would expect this sharp latitudinal drop-off of PVA to support a mesoscale band of heavy precip along the northern edge.  A broad region of isentropic lift / WAA should help accumulations for those further north, but probably not to the extent that the GFS is showing. 

 

So, what I would expect is a band of higher QPF right around, say, the -8 C contour, with little or nothing north of the -10 C.  Let's see what happens :)

 

(edited to change -12 C to -10 C)

 

attachicon.giff48.gif

 

Yeah usually models don't have the resolution to handle those sharp cutoffs..but I see what you mean.

 

The GFS argues some good frontogenesis and mid level deformation pretty far north, but agree that there will be a sharp northern cutoff. 

 

To enthusiasts. note the WNW winds near CYUL and WSW winds down by southern VT.

 

post-33-0-23227100-1391445177_thumb.gif

 

post-33-0-62837900-1391445190_thumb.gif

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Not sure I buy the QPF depiction of the 12Z GFS. Assuming that 500 mb setup verifies... cyclonic vorticity advection (referring only to the rotational component of vorticity) and positive shear vorticity (du/dy) look great over SNE, but the competition between +CVA and negative shear vorticity combined with UL confluence over NNE should limit vertical velocities (and perhaps some sinking), resulting in limited QPF along the northern cutoff. I would expect this sharp latitudinal drop-off of PVA to support a mesoscale band of heavy precip along the northern edge. A broad region of isentropic lift / WAA should help accumulations for those further north, but probably not to the extent that the GFS is showing.

So, what I would expect is a band of higher QPF right around, say, the -8 C contour, with little or nothing north of the -10 C. Let's see what happens :)

(edited to change -12 C to -10 C)

Good analysis, should be interesting to watch up here.

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