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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

A monumental moment.  I think this is the first time I have read an AFD that acknowledges that a portion of their CWA borders VT.  And they do it twice.

 

GETTING A FEEL FOR POTENTIAL OUTCOMES...TOP 5 CIPS ANALOGS BASED OFF THE 03.0Z GFS EXHIBIT AN EAST-WEST SWATH OF 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF 12+ CENTERED AROUND THE MA-VT-NH BORDER /CONSIDERING THOSE ANALOGS WITH AN H85 CLOSED LOW AND SIMILAR SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PATTERN/. YET EVEN THE VARIETY OF OBSERVED SNOWFALLS EXHIBITS THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT OUTCOMES. SREF MEANS SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR 1-INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES AS WELL AS GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING WINTER WEATHER WARNING CRITERIA FOR AREAS AROUND THE MA-NH-VT BORDER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING TO THE SOUTH. BUT ALSO DECIPHERED FROM THE SREF IS THE DIFFICULTY IN DISCERNING THE TRANSITION ZONE AS EMPHASIZED BY THE LOWERED PROBABILITIES AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER REGION FOR ALL WINTER WEATHER POSSIBILITIES.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Euro seems like it stayed about the same..maybe pellets get about 20 miles inland?

 

 

Could be anywhere from the Merritt region to the MA/CT border or even a bit north...still some uncertainty regarding how far north the pellets get.

 

Euro was maybe just a bit north of the merritt.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Could be anywhere from the Merritt region to the MA/CT border or even a bit north...still some uncertainty regarding how far north the pellets get.

 

Euro was maybe just a bit north of the merritt.

Yeah seemed about 20 miles or so inland..but that's probably just about impossible to pin down.

 

I'm planning on having some sleet here at some point

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Euro looked like it pelted into srn CT and Cape Cod. Also nailed PF with good frontogenesis. All the crying up there about this storm needs to stop.

 

Haha crying?  I guess no congrats?  Last night Pickles posts about a duel QPF max and its labled as "worrying".... we gotta be able to discuss max and mins without people changing others' diapers, lol. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Euro op and ens were a big hit here. 0.50" up near Stowe too.

 

Oh really?  I looked at the EURO on the wunderground maps and saw us maybe just north of the 0.175" line in the first 6 hours, and then just over 0.1" for the next 6 hours.  Figured it looked closer to 0.25" than 0.5".  Maybe those WU graphics are just hard to read.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Oh really? I looked at the EURO on the wunderground maps and saw us maybe just north of the 0.175" line in the first 6 hours, and then just over 0.1" for the next 6 hours. Figured it looked closer to 0.25" than 0.5". Maybe those WU graphics are just hard to read.

0.25" runs along the QB border.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

You guys might actually do better than us here. I took your response as a sarcastic congrats. If that was not implied, then my apologies.

 

It was my usual tongue-in-cheek response, haha.  Judging by the responses, my posts must come off as more b*tching and crying than I feel like, so I'll have to wrap that up a bit.  Its hard to figure out how it comes across sometimes.  But anyway, you guys are having a phenomenal stretch.  Ginxy and Jerry special type winter. 

 

 

But there is absolutely no way we get more snow up here than you.  I could see Dendrite to RUT-GFL or something if the banding sets up as the ML lift looks great there, but I'm not sure folks realize how far north I am.  One county south of our great neighbor to the north...oh Canada.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It was my usual tongue-in-cheek response, haha.  Judging by the responses, my posts must come off as more b*tching and crying than I feel like, so I'll have to wrap that up a bit.  Its hard to figure out how it comes across sometimes.  But anyway, you guys are having a phenomenal stretch.  Ginxy and Jerry special type winter. 

 

 

But there is absolutely no way we get more snow up here than you.  I could see Dendrite to RUT-GFL or something if the banding sets up as the ML lift looks great there, but I'm not sure folks realize how far north I am.  One county south of our great neighbor to the north...oh Canada.

 

You guys was a general reference to CNE/NNE. Yes I agree you might be on the edge...but I think you'll be surprised.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

It was my usual tongue-in-cheek response, haha.  Judging by the responses, my posts must come off as more b*tching and crying than I feel like, so I'll have to wrap that up a bit.  Its hard to figure out how it comes across sometimes.  But anyway, you guys are having a phenomenal stretch.  Ginxy and Jerry special type winter. 

 

 

But there is absolutely no way we get more snow up here than you.  I could see Dendrite to RUT-GFL or something if the banding sets up as the ML lift looks great there, but I'm not sure folks realize how far north I am.  One county south of our great neighbor to the north...oh Canada.

just throw a few of  :thumbsup: and a few more of these :) in and everything will be ok.

 

Enjoy the snow up there!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

If we miss this up here, will PF transfer to Yawgoo? :)

 

 

This would prob be powderfreak:

 

maxresdefault.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

On all seriousness, I doubt its a miss up there. If anything, I expect a little nudge northward. The SWFE Bump...typically in the final 24-48 hours. Even in a storm like 12/19/08, I think there was pretty good snow banding up in N VT when QPF was forecasted was in the 0.25" range...pretty solid bust IIRC.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

On all seriousness, I doubt its a miss up there. If anything, I expect a little nudge northward. The SWFE Bump...typically in the final 24-48 hours. Even in a storm like 12/19/08, I think there was pretty good snow banding up in N VT when QPF was forecasted was in the 0.25" range...pretty solid bust IIRC.

Oh definitely not going to be a miss, this never looked like a miss. Would just love to hit a warning level snowfall sometime this winter, thought this one had a good chance. It goes around I guess, easy this winter for SNE to say relax and enjoy your light snow, haha.

In 2011-2012 when people were slitting wrists and I managed to get 100" of snowfall at home, it was easier for me to say hey you guys, your turn will come, why ya'll jumping off the ledge into the big hole? ;) (that ones for you Tolland)

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

This would prob be powderfreak:

 

maxresdefault.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

 

On all seriousness, I doubt its a miss up there. If anything, I expect a little nudge northward. The SWFE Bump...typically in the final 24-48 hours. Even in a storm like 12/19/08, I think there was pretty good snow banding up in N VT when QPF was forecasted was in the 0.25" range...pretty solid bust IIRC.

mid levels ftw CNE NNE.  

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

12z Nam guidance  850s look warm for the mid week system, especially for all of Ct and a good chunk of Ma.  Any credence in what its showing?

 

Maybe. Impossible to assess it without 12z guidance from other models because... well I don't want to sound racist, but it IS the NAM.

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