February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[powderfreak]

 

BOX map ..seems to line up with everyone's thinking..no jack's..the love is spread to all

 

 

Click for Amounts

to N & W

Click for

Amounts

to W & N

Click for Amounts

to NE

Click for Amounts

to SW

Graphic last modified: Sunday, 02nd February, 2014 @ 4:45PM

 

 

Why am I seeing a map for Tuesday?

[ORH_wxman]

Why am I seeing a map for Tuesday?

 

 

This is why we don't encourage hyper-linking.

 

 

BOX changed the map to Monday's event.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why am I seeing a map for Tuesday?

i think by mistake they posted their first call map for Wed which had a lot of 8-10

[powderfreak]

I think the one thing different with this SWFE is that the confluence up north is going to help. So instead of a 80 mile shift NW it may be like 20 or so. I feel like previous SWFE did not have that.

 

Of course there's a reason this time for no 80 mile bump NW, haha.  In fact it probably goes a little more progressive and sheared because of the confluence. 

[powderfreak]

This is why we don't encourage hyper-linking.

 

 

BOX changed the map to Monday's event.

 

Ahhh, I was refreshing, clearing my cache, lol.

[dryslot]

Why am I seeing a map for Tuesday?

 

I thought it was just me seeing the 1-2" amounts..................

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Here is the first call map that slipped up ahead of tomorrows non-event (apparently)

 

 

[dryslot]

In these types of system, There is usually a very broad area that you will see generally the same or close to amounts being posted when all said and done other then a weenie jac or two

[ORH_wxman]

Of course there's a reason this time for no 80 mile bump NW, haha.  In fact it probably goes a little more progressive and sheared because of the confluence. 

 

 

I think it will bump back north a little with the qpf certainly...there is still fundamental meteorology working here...you have a vortmax curling up into NY State..so there is going to be a pretty decent WAA precip shield into CNE/NNE...not just over SNE. Unless the vortmax becomes so sheared it is ineffective at moisture transport...but I doubt it. There's a limit to how much "confluence" can push these things.

 

It always sounds like there is no limit...you just say any cliche you want and can pretend it will do what you want..."the confluence is storng so it will keep tracking S" or "there's little upstream blocking and a potent SE ridge so it wiil keep trending north"..."convection always bumps these north at the last minute"...pick your cliche...but in the end, unless there is a drastic change to the mid-level dynamics at work, then we won't see a massive shift....that is one thing that a very low spread on 5H heights can tell us.

[CoastalWx]

Of course there's a reason this time for no 80 mile bump NW, haha.  In fact it probably goes a little more progressive and sheared because of the confluence. 

I think it will still bump north, but I'm thinking back to those classic 100 mile GFS shifts in 60 hrs. I don't recall many having the PV lobe rotate down at the same time...but the thing is...this should tick north a bit from processes outlined  ad-nauseum, but the fact models have little ensemble spread is telling. 

 

We keep trying to tell you guys...you guys will do well and Dendrite perhaps the best of all of us. Mid level fronto is well pronounced to the north. 

[CoastalWx]

NNE, this is your friend. 

 

 

[OceanStWx]

This is why we don't encourage hyper-linking.

 

 

BOX changed the map to Monday's event.

 

As they should. We change those "first call" maps way too much to be useful in posting days in advance. I really don't like that we do it.

 

I really wish we went back to a blank map that says "There is the possibility for 6 or more inches of snow" during the watch phase.

[Sugarloaf1989]

NNE, this is your friend. 

 

 

avn_72_500.gif

 

 

Good hit for ski country?

[OceanStWx]

Unrelated, I just realized how pessimistic our AFD (and forecast) was for Wednesday.

 

Not anymore...

[CoastalWx]

Good hit for ski country?

 

Yeah it will be. You can see as the snow shuts off here, lingering lift and RH from frontogenesis lingers bands of steadier snows there,

 

[dryslot]

Unrelated, I just realized how pessimistic our AFD (and forecast) was for Wednesday.

 

Not anymore...

 

I read it earlier this afternoon and was scratching my head with the wording that everything was going south..........lol

[TalcottWx]

Yeah it will be. You can see as the snow shuts off here, lingering lift and RH from frontogenesis lingers bands of steadier snows there,

avn_72_vv.gif

Oh lawdy I love that I don't dryslot

[OceanStWx]

I read it earlier this afternoon and was scratching my head with the wording that everything was going south..........lol

 

Seriously, it's a good read alongside great discussion from BOX and BTV. It's always fun to be the short term forecaster and get lost trying to massage long term grids.

 

I mean it really sounded like our thoughts were this storm is slipping out to sea, and could end up as a whiff.

[OceanStWx]

Nothing I'm looking at right now says we'll "only see advisory level snow" across the south. Lift and moisture are not a problem for our southern zones, so I would lean high end advisory at worst right now.

[CoastalWx]

Oh lawdy I love that I don't dryslot

 

You will after 18z.

[dryslot]

Seriously, it's a good read alongside great discussion from BOX and BTV. It's always fun to be the short term forecaster and get lost trying to massage long term grids.

 

I mean it really sounded like our thoughts were this storm is slipping out to sea, and could end up as a whiff.

 

lol, That what i was seeing and was saying to myself wtf, Am i missing something? You switched it up to more optimistic with your latest AFD, At this point its the way to go

[OceanStWx]

You switched it up to more optimistic with your latest AFD, At this point its the way to go

 

Well I couldn't let that slide by without updating. I don't want to be disingenuous about the forecast, it's probably going to be at least high end moderate impact for southern NH. Not just some throw away advisory.

[N. OF PIKE]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

And the QPF queens rejoiced.

For anyone that doesn't feel like clicking on the link, 1.10" for all of sne and either all or most of CNE, don't remember exactly where the cutoff is. .75 north of there.

[Lava Rock]

Well I couldn't let that slide by without updating. I don't want to be disingenuous about the forecast, it's probably going to be at least high end moderate impact for southern NH. Not just some throw away advisory.

what's your thoughts on our area?4-6"? After nearly a snowless month we need some love.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

Last two runs of the nam try to give the pike to rte 2 area the 7-10 split wrt intense precip. Yes its the nam, just commenting on what it shows.

Shows deform in s vt snh and best waa from S Long Island over to maybe pike.

I agree it's something to keep in mind and look to see if other modeling shows, but the lone nam won't get much credence from me until 24hr range.

[CoastalWx]

Last two runs of the nam try to give the pike to rte 2 area the 7-10 split wrt intense precip. Yes its the nam, just commenting on what it shows.

Shows deform in s vt snh and best waa from S Long Island over to maybe pike.

I saw this too, but it's important not to worry right now since these things can and will change.

[dryslot]

The worrying never ends..lol, If its not MPM it's C pick

[N. OF PIKE]

I saw this too, but it's important not to worry right now since these things can and will change.

Well im not worrying bc if i get four inches ill still be ok. I just have been wondering if there is any precedent or tendency for a SWFE with this sort of track to have a sizeable area between WAA and deform that is screwgied. If someone panics over anyone saying sure they prob shouldnt be commenting. But this sort of analysis and caution flags is what im here for.

[CoastalWx]

Well im not worrying bc if i get four inches ill still be ok. I just have been wondering if there is any precedent or tendency for a SWFE with this sort of track to have a sizeable area between WAA and deform that is screwgied. If someone panics over anyone saying sure they prob shouldnt be commenting. But this sort of analysis and caution flags is what im here for.

 

I can't recall a screwjob since these things usually come in like a wall and are largely WAA driven which means the QPF shield is rather expansive and lacks holes. You can't dismiss some areas where mesoscale subsidence could happen..but more often than not, it is a uniform snow distribution.