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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,


weathafella

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I think someone in our area will do really well with the mid-level fronto. I'd rather have a 10:1 SWFE thump, but beggars can't be choosers.

 

That's pretty key, Some one will get ripped with those fronto bands, I would prefer lower ratio snow as well for its lasting affects,  But after the last 3.5 weeks i am not going to complain at all

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I'm going to go ahead and say that the mid week system is very high confidence at this point.  Seeing the GFS operational utter consistency wrt to this event, now with a Euro "inside" of day 4 landing it's solution dead nuts on GFS is a pretty much a slam dunk for me.  

 

Currently WV loop is tracking a vigorous quasi closed "outside slider" moving SSE just off California.  This aligns reasonably well with the initialization of the more reliable and unreliable guidance types.  Most of which agree upon this feature turning E and then ejecting ENE on the polarward side of the nascent polar boundary displaced S of of our region.  This will will impose a substantial amount of lift over the cold dome and as that UVM taps into the the q-vector forcing there's probably going to be some decent elevated frontogenic consequences to deal with, which would augment snow totals upward via meso banding.  But the general implication of lift over the dome is likely to produce a less than shredded rad appearance for this and thus a rather uniform 6 to 12" in my estimation.  

 

I do think, however, the southern zones will have to contend with an interruption of sleet and ZR, which would mitigate some accumulations ... but also introduce other hazards for commuters Wed morning.  

 

That's the way I see this thing for now seeing as everyone cares what I think ... haha

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Probably pretty reasonable. I think the "high risk" area in terms of forecasts busting in SNE is that quadrilateral from PYM-DXR-BAF-GHG...I think from PSF-ORH-BOS-MHT-DDH is looking very strong for warning snows right now. Probably pretty solid too into CNE up by dendrite over to RUT and S ME if we are talking outside of SNE.

BAF would be more prone to taint than Logan ?

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