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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

The GFS was 1+" for all of SNE lol. This set up is favorable for lots of QPF, though energy transfer could leave some with less. 

 

Maybe I can't distinguish colors well, but I think that's .75" plus up to the MA border with VT/NH, then down to .5+ that the GFS is showing.

 

Mild and breezy.

 

43.7/33

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

This looks very similar to 12/15 with respect to location of deform banding. Should be colder in SNE though given 850 circulation passes just south of them.

 

Definitely colder, That model always seems to run warm, 12/15 was 9.5" here definitely in the SWFE window of 6-10"

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Ukie looks pretty amped at 72h...it is still very cold though. I do think some pingers could make it at least to PVD-HFD in this...though we'll see if the Euro stays all snow for everyone N of the south coast.

 

When you have the vortmax tracking to the west of SNE or at least almost overhead, it will try and bring the mid-level WAA pretty far north.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Ukie looks pretty amped at 72h...it is still very cold though. I do think some pingers could make it at least to PVD-HFD in this...though we'll see if the Euro stays all snow for everyone N of the south coast.

 

When you have the vortmax tracking to the west of SNE or at least almost overhead, it will try and bring the mid-level WAA pretty far north.

 

There are fates worse than pings.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think 6-10 is the best first guess for many,

6-10 for BDL-PVD-PYM and northward.

East of the canal 2-5.

 

 

Probably pretty reasonable. I think the "high risk" area in terms of forecasts busting in SNE is that quadrilateral from PYM-DXR-BAF-GHG...I think from PSF-ORH-BOS-MHT-DDH is looking very strong for warning snows right now. Probably pretty solid too into CNE up by dendrite over to RUT and S ME if we are talking outside of SNE.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Parts of NNE are gonna do just fine and might even exceed SNE totals if the mid level frontogenesis allows it. You worry warts are going to do very well. H7 and H5 deformation is up that way allowing for thermal packing and thus frontogenesis while down here it's a 6-8hr WAA thump with lighter snows on either side. I agree with Will..that area from the SNE south coast to maybe HFD-GHG or so are the ones that might see a pellet or two.

 

Also, there might be a 2-3 hr period where it absolutely rips as the tongue of the LLJ approaches from the SW.

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bobbutts

bobbutts

Posted
Posted

FWIW the NAM shows 5 hours of > 1"/hr snows for CON with temps in the upper 20's

It warms to 31 with PL and FRZR happen towards the end, but there isn't much qpf wasted on it

Seems to be pretty well in line with the consensus for this system that it's

under 10"

fast hitting

majority of system over before dry/taint

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