February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[powderfreak]

No EV for you.

That's left for NNE again

[Ginx snewx]

Mpm GFS is .74 at Pittsfield with temps low 20 s, 850 s -6/8 , higher ratios so very decent .

[CoastalWx]

That's left for NNE again

You guys look fine there.

[moneypitmike]

Extended MOS

 

 

Mpm GFS is .74 at Pittsfield with temps low 20 s, 850 s -6/8 , higher ratios so very decent .

 

Thanks, Steve.  I like using whatever the  AQW/PSF/ORE/RUT/EEN amounts are as my guide to best caputre Lat/Long of qpf dispersion.

 

Things are trending nicely for you down there--good luck with the continued trend.

 

30.1/29, foggy.

[dendrite]

There's still some questions as to how this evolves. The 6Z GFS pretty much has the same sfc reflection from the Gulf up to SE of ACK and even tracks the closed H85 low over SNE. The mid-level fronto and vortmax is still up over NNE. The meso models and some of the GEFS are still leaning toward a stronger primary to our SW and more of an isentropic thumping (a more classic SWFE). I don't think either is written in stone quite yet.

[Damage In Tolland]

There's still some questions as to how this evolves. The 6Z GFS pretty much has the same sfc reflection from the Gulf up to SE of ACK and even tracks the closed H85 low over SNE. The mid-level fronto and vortmax is still up over NNE. The meso models and some of the GEFS are still leaning toward a stronger primary to our SW and more of an isentropic thumping (a more classic SWFE). I don't think either is written in stone quite yet.

We're back to the days where we can ride the Euro. It's been steadfast with this the last 48 hours and has led the south , colder charge

[dendrite]

We're back to the days where we can ride the Euro. It's been steadfast with this the last 48 hours and has led the south , colder charge

Yeah...it's back in charge when it shows a snowier solution for you.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah...it's back in charge when it shows a snowier solution for you.

When it's in lock step with the Euro ens..well i think we know the drill..Just like you are spiking the GFS

[dendrite]

When it's in lock step with the Euro ens..well i think we know the drill..Just like you are spiking the GFS

The op usually is lockstep with the ens this close in. Take a look at the ens spaghetti plots on a daily basis in the 72hr range. It still has run-to-run errors though. And why would I be spiking the GFS?

 

I'd lean with the synoptic models at this point, but all I'm saying is these systems coming from the deep south usually have tricks up their sleeves inside of 48-72hr. I already mentioned the convection yesterday so I won't rehash all of that again today.

[dendrite]

The op usually is lockstep with the ens this close in. Take a look at the ens spaghetti plots on a daily basis in the 72hr range. It still has run-to-run errors though. And why would I be spiking the GFS?

 

I'd lean with the synoptic models at this point, but all I'm saying is these systems coming from the deep south usually have tricks up their sleeves inside of 48-72hr. I already mentioned the convection yesterday so I won't rehash all of that again today.

Let me clarify this after rereading what I posted. EC ens mean is rarely much different from the op at d3. The spag plots usually show a bit of spread, but I rarely see mean vs op differences like I do with the GEFS. My point was that when the Euro is wrong at this range we usually see larger run-to-run discrepancies than op vs ens. I hope I explained what I meant there...I haven't had a coffee yet.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Let's see if the GFS moves south at all before we talk of spiking

Any concern with the dry air in northern Mexico/ western Texas?

[dryslot]

I am riding the Nam on this one................

[dendrite]

Nammy being Nammy.

[eyewall]

BTV is pointing to 3-6" for my neck of the woods (advisory event) with the warning criteria to the south.

[dendrite]

AAA models are out of the way. Time for the big leaguers.

[dryslot]

That's actually giving it to much credit

[CoastalWx]

AAA models are out of the way. Time for the big leaguers.

 

Yeah the Korean and Brazilian models should nail it.

[dendrite]

Yeah the Korean and Brazilian models should nail it.

Gyro low.

[Bostonseminole]

Gyro low.

speaking of gyro, headed to japan, enjoy the storm everyone!, will be back for the 9th storm.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[powderfreak]

Let's see if the GFS moves south at all before we talk of spiking

 

Haha, some weenies spike the ball on the solution that shows them the most snow, some of us spike the ball on the models that show us what can go wrong, will go wrong

[ORH_wxman]

I fully expect the ECMWF/Canadian/Ukie to bump a shade north before we get to verification time.

 

Like I said earlier this morning, my neck of the woods in the MA pike BOS-ORH-BAF corridor should be worrying about ptype issues versus a track too far SE.

 

We know the drill when we have a vortmax tracking from the OH valley essentially over our heads. For selfish reasons, I hope that the EC/EC ens don't move since they basically show BOS-ORH jackpot...but I expect to see the SWFE Bump.

[CoastalWx]

I fully expect the ECMWF/Canadian/Ukie to bump a shade north before we get to verification time.

 

Like I said earlier this morning, my neck of the woods in the MA pike BOS-ORH-BAF corridor should be worrying about ptype issues versus a track too far SE.

 

We know the drill when we have a vortmax tracking from the OH valley essentially over our heads.

 

Yep, fully agree. The vortmax has moved east from say 48 hrs ago..but it is still a good deal west.

[N. OF PIKE]

My question is ...does the more mature 850 low (transfer near ocean city) in this set up have any flags in it wrt to seeing the usual wall of white overspreads a large area w a heavy thumping "SWFE" . I.e like a disjointed area of waa more nw and another area from the 850 low more se , or zero flags

I get the Ptype issue concerns will et all are harping on for pike area , Will what is your best analog for situ like this wrt the 850 low transfer timing and track if you could

[Damage In Tolland]

Because this is a miller B as BOX outlined..the swfe caveats may not apply as one might typically expect. Another move south is an option that is still on the table..equally as is one north

[ORH_wxman]

Because this is a miller B as BOX outlined..the swfe caveats may not apply as one might typically expect. Another move south is an option that is still on the table..equally as is one north

 

 

It is only a Miller B in an absolute technical sense...which is defined as a surface low redeveloping from the OH Valley to offshore the east coast. This does not see a redeveloped mid-level center...i.e....winds backing at from the SE at H7-H5 level. So this is a classic SWFE unless that changes.

[CoastalWx]

Kevin, just look at a model.

[Damage In Tolland]

Kevin, just look at a model.

?? 

[CoastalWx]

?? 

 

You would see it's not a classic Miller B with all the screaming SW flow.

[CoastalWx]

GFS maybe a hair north through 72.

[CoastalWx]

Almost identical to 06z through hr 78.