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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Absolutely.

 

 

12/13/07 gave BOS 10.5" on 0.87" of qpf. Pretty solid 12 to 1 ratio stuff that doesn't sublimate very easily. It was like someone was just pouring baking soda out of the box with quarter mile vis.

 

I havent examined BUFKIT cross sections but just from the soundngs this would probably be similar with H7 warmer in the -5C to -6C range.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Staying power is best. What causes certain types of snow to have more staying power?

High ratio snow has less water. It sublimates and drops from air in the pack. Melting and evaporating the water requires more energy so high water snow pack is easier to retain.

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
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Starting to get more comfortable with the idea of this being a fairly widespread warning criteria system, obviously no locks at this range and there will almost certainly be changes in track to come, but if the ensembles support the OP and the euro comes in similar then we can probably increase confidence in a noteworthy impact for SNE.

Interesting that 0z GFS is still a bit SE from 18z, but there seems to be a universal confidence across the board that we see a northward correction as we get closer. Any thoughts on how we can ballpark how big future shifts are likely to be? Other than waiting Til 12z runs lol.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Looks weaker and se again. Those trends can stop ...At some point the meat shredder/disjointed system cuts accums away from higher end accums . This isnt panic or unreadable . I think i need this disclaimer next to any non improvement model post bc some dont have the stomach for it.

Anyway i wanna see the WAA modeled strengthen not weaken any

How much more stout could the confluence trend, i mean we are thankful for some but i cant imagine it exertin much more ...could it

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weathafella

weathafella

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Note how juicy this is modeled. Make no mistake about it, waa will deliver and well,well north, don't confuse this with a southern coast brusher with temperatures in the teens. The limiting factor aside from potential ptype issues is dryslot's and probably subpar snow growth.

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joey2002

joey2002

Posted
Posted

Note how juicy this is modeled. Make no mistake about it, waa will deliver and well,well north, don't confuse this with a southern coast brusher with temperatures in the teens. The limiting factor aside from potential ptype issues is dryslot's and probably subpar snow growth.

 

Euro continues to appear SE and cold... should be mostly snow for most of us.   :snowing:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Note how juicy this is modeled. Make no mistake about it, waa will deliver and well,well north, don't confuse this with a southern coast brusher with temperatures in the teens. The limiting factor aside from potential ptype issues is dryslot's and probably subpar snow growth.

 

 

Yep, our worry in SNE is ptype before we start worry about QPF. We've seen this movie before.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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BOX continues theme of our discussion last evening..It's a Miller B

 

ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS CONCERNING
THE MILLER-B STORM-TYPE EVOLUTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SREF
MEAN/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF IN
REGARDS TO THE EMERGING SURFACE LOW TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SWEEPING E/NE TOWARDS THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK. BROAD AGREEMENT AS WELL WITHIN THE POSITION...
TIMING...AND TRACK OF THE H85 LOW...WITH THE 02.0Z GEFS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONVERGING ON THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SOLUTION.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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HWO plays it cold.

 

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE...MAINLY SNOW...BUT ALSO POSSIBLY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ARE ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVELING CONDITIONS.

 

Progged highs for up here on are in the 20's for Wednesday.

 

30.4/19.  Bleh.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
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06 GFS for us NE CT folks is 1.1 qpf, all snow

 

Ginxy--what are you seeing for qpf up this way?  Where are you getting that?  Thx.

 

EDIT:  found the the coolwx map.  It's showing BDL with .83 on the 06GFS vs. .77 on the 00z.  Probably just noise at this time range, but at least it's noise in the right direction.

 

What is GFSX?  is that 'extended'?  Looking at the MOS guidance, that is giving AQW a 6 and ORE a 4.

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dendrite

dendrite

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Ginxy--what are you seeing for qpf up this way?  Where are you getting that?  Thx.

 

EDIT:  found the the coolwx map.  It's showing BDL with .83 on the 06GFS vs. .77 on the 00z.  Probably just noise at this time range, but at least it's noise in the right direction.

 

What is GFSX?  is that 'extended'?  Looking at the MOS guidance, that is giving AQW a 6 and ORE a 4.

Extended MOS
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