February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[Ginx snewx]

Yes...there were a few 10-12" maxes in that one. But usually taking the under is the way to go. I will add that this one is pretty juiced right now...both on the actual guidance QPF and the mid-level level advection of gulf moisture...so it could morph into a more robust SWFE.

 

 

In addition this could end up with some significant FZRA in the interior if a more northwest mid-level track materializes.

Very juicy

[dryslot]

Somebody going to see ice out of this one after a decent thump it appears

[TalcottWx]

3-6" bos

Kev 2-4"

Me ray 6-10"

9-12" dendrite

That's the way the 5th currently looks

[Ginx snewx]

3-6" bos

Kev 2-4"

Me ray 6-10"

9-12" dendrite

That's the way the 5th currently looks

? putting out amounts 6 days away, I mean this means as much.

[N. OF PIKE]

Hopefully sne stays in game with this one.

What are the biggest risks....over amplification?

[Ginx snewx]

Hopefully sne stays in game with this one.

What are the biggest risks....over amplification?

ice

[Ginx snewx]

Thumpidity dump and colder

[TalcottWx]

? putting out amounts 6 days away, I mean this means as much.

Just guessing typical SWFE ranges.. I don't think it'll be much different from those amounts in the end. Usually a definite ceiling and a predictable amount pattern.

[Ginx snewx]

Just guessing typical SWFE ranges.. I don't think it'll be much different from those amounts in the end. Usually a definite ceiling and a predictable amount pattern.

Kev 2-4, uh no

[jamesnichols1989]

It seems if any light event were to happen it would be mainly snow for us here in SNE, but right now models are not succinct for any time accumulations for our region.  The 5-6th system looking colder, interesting to see if the EURO comes in colder as well.

[jamesnichols1989]

If it stays all snow for SNE even Cape Cod but Islands taint I could see how the region does extremely well with maybe 12"+ amounts if the 12z GFS is right with QPF amounts of up to 1.50-1.75".

[weathafella]

A few of those and you get a durable pack even moving deeper into February.

I know you're feeling this one, but I am not.

I think we see a good bit of our precip in liquid form. Give me the 2/9 storm or give me meth.

You're describing something atypical. Most of the time especially with these ocean temps, we get the snow thump and then not much once the mid levels warm and the ds moves through. Even on today's GFS op run, check the rh fields after the thump. If we get 5/7 on the front end we won't lose much in this setup verbatim. Swfe are the bomb!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Most gefs members look warm to me...i dont like when mid levels are way nw. Plenty of time though no worries.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Hopefully sne stays in game with this one.

What are the biggest risks....over amplification?

 

Yeah, this could come in strong enough to flood us(SNE mostly) with a mixed bag of everything.  Snow/Sleet/Ice/Rain

[dendrite]

Most gefs members look warm to me...i dont like when mid levels are way nw. Plenty of time though no worries.

that's pretty much SWFE climo even with secondary sfc redevelopment.

[Baroclinic Zone]

You're describing something atypical. Most of the time especially with these ocean temps, we get the snow thump and then not much once the mid levels warm and the ds moves through. Even on today's GFS op run, check the rh fields after the thump. If we get 5/7 on the front end we won't lose much in this setup verbatim. Swfe are the bomb!

A lot of speculation still at this timeframe though.  Just need to make sure the confluence stays strong and we get this system to triple point underneath us.

[SnowMan]

A lot of speculation still at this timeframe though. Just need to make sure the confluence stays strong and we get this system to triple point underneath us.

What is a triple point and why is that good? Does it mean a longer duration storm?

[weathafella]

A lot of speculation still at this timeframe though. Just need to make sure the confluence stays strong and we get this system to triple point underneath us.

What is a triple point and why is that good? Does it mean a longer duration storm?

Occlusion.

[weathafella]

Euro has us snowing nicely from mid ct north through New England by daybreak Wednesday.

[dendrite]

What is a triple point and why is that good? Does it mean a longer duration storm?

The point where the warm, cold, and occluded fronts meet at various levels. Your secondary lows form in this area. I'd go into more detail but I'm on my phone.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro def more amped than 00z...front end thump of snow to ice in interior and rain along the coast.

[forkyfork]

warmer and cuttier than 0z

[dendrite]

This is quite an amped up run. Nice front end thump here before the mix/ds.

[weathafella]

Euro def more amped than 00z...front end thump of snow to ice in interior and rain along the coast.

Yep. Mpm cleans up also. Overdone?

[weathafella]

Sleet up to North Conway seems overdone.

[ORH_wxman]

Yep. Mpm cleans up also. Overdone?

 

 

Way to early to speculate if it is overdone or not. We're still talking 144 hours. Its really cold at the surface though. Interior wouldn't have a prayer of getting above freezing in that.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z Euro.  Confluence to our N breaks down allowing the s/w to amplify and phase with that lobe in Canada.

[dryslot]

Where do i sign? Primary makes it further north this run

[Ginx snewx]

Way to early to speculate if it is overdone or not. We're still talking 144 hours. Its really cold at the surface though. Interior wouldn't have a prayer of getting above freezing in that.

Man heavy snow to heavy ice on the Euro for your old home and Hunchie

[powderfreak]

Where do i sign? Primary makes it further north this run

Same here...ironically looks like one of the DGEX runs from yesterday haha. I don't know why I've been looking at that but I like the weenie solutions haha. Sucks this isn't even 5 days out yet, lol.

Only a matter of time before the GGEM goes to a full blown 976mb cutter and then back to a coast scraper the next run. Surprised we haven't seen that yet.