dendrite Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The tailend of NAM runs is always fascinating. No QPF worries for PF there. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Worried cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 The tailend of NAM runs is always fascinating. No QPF worries for PF there. lol And basically little snow south of you...lol. Edit you're sleeting at 12Z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We should probably keep the dignity of this thread intact by limiting the 84h 00z NAM posts to single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We should probably keep the dignity of this thread intact by limiting the 84h 00z NAM posts to single digits. Or just deleting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We should probably keep the dignity of this thread intact by limiting the 84h 00z NAM posts to single digits. I contemplated not posting when I did to see how long we could go without a NAM mention. That model shouldn't be run past 48hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Or just deleting them. It is indeed fascinating to look at sometimes, like Brian said. But I'd trust the Nogaps in this storm before I use the 84h NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 I renember when it did stop at 48. It was decent then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I renember when it did stop at 48. It was decent then. The old ETA and NGM used to both stop at 48h...I remember the huge deal it was when the ETA got extended to 60 hours. I think that was like 1999-2000 or so. Back then, the AVN only got run to 72 hours before it ran on lower resolution as the MRF beyond that...imagine the GFS truncating at 72 hours now? We've come a long way in the NWP world in the past 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Speaking of which, I just read that NCEP is doing an upgrade to the SREFs on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Speaking of which, I just read that NCEP is doing an upgrade to the SREFs on the 26th. Yup http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-02sref_winter.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yup http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-02sref_winter.htm Are we shocked that there were a couple of rogue models that were too moist because of initial conditions? Ha I wanted to believe all those runs with 40+ inch plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Are we shocked that there were a couple of rogue models that were too moist because of initial conditions? Ha I wanted to believe all those runs with 40+ inch plumes. You went with the word "moist" to describe the models showing too much QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Are we shocked that there were a couple of rogue models that were too moist because of initial conditions? Ha I wanted to believe all those runs with 40+ inch plumes. I'm still shoveling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Are we shocked that there were a couple of rogue models that were too moist because of initial conditions? Ha I wanted to believe all those runs with 40+ inch plumes. Somewhere in an alternate universe, those plumes verifySomewhere I am Iron Man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You went with the word "moist" to describe the models showing too much QPF?[/quote They do use the word 'moist' if you read the update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 They do use the word 'moist' if you read the update Right, the initial conditions were too moist, which ultimately led to QPF that was too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I only hope NNE gets hit. Either way we'll probably get 4-6" here over to N ORH. The trend is NOT good for NNE and no one can deny that, Northern ME may not see a flake. Well I hope everyone gets hit, and they probably will In some capacity. Enough to go around 4-6 seems a bit low for that area IMO. Should do better than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs holding pretty steady vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Man that's a shellacking. I'm getting excited now that we're in the d3-4 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs holding pretty steady vs 18z. Might even be a bit colder. That's a nice hit for SNE and CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs holding pretty steady vs 18z. Looks Like a shift SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks Like a shift SE. Not as much though. I think the southern trend is at the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 12/13/07 may be the best example here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12/13/07 may be the best example here.Horrible snow growth in that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Horrible snow growth in that I'll take 10 inches of baking powder over 10 inches of fluff any day. To each his own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Horrible snow growth in that But a great event. I'd take it in a heartbeat. Swfe often have less the stellar snowgrowthdue to the warming at mid levels in lower portion the sgz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not as much though. I think the southern trend is at the end? Looked like it as it got near ACK...more ENE movement. Anyways, it is still a real possibility it ticks north again if that confluence to the north is even a tad weaker. Looks like models are stabilizing relatively speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'll take 10 inches of baking powder over 10 inches of fluff any day. To each his own. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs holding pretty steady vs 18z. Solid warning into CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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