February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[dendrite]

The tailend of NAM runs is always fascinating. No QPF worries for PF there. lol

[dryslot]

Worried cancel

[weathafella]

The tailend of NAM runs is always fascinating. No QPF worries for PF there. lol

And basically little snow south of you...lol.

Edit you're sleeting at 12Z Wednesday.

[ORH_wxman]

We should probably keep the dignity of this thread intact by limiting the 84h 00z NAM posts to single digits.

[CoastalWx]

We should probably keep the dignity of this thread intact by limiting the 84h 00z NAM posts to single digits.

 

Or just deleting them.

[dendrite]

We should probably keep the dignity of this thread intact by limiting the 84h 00z NAM posts to single digits.

I contemplated not posting when I did to see how long we could go without a NAM mention. That model shouldn't be run past 48hr.

[ORH_wxman]

Or just deleting them.

 

 

It is indeed fascinating to look at sometimes, like Brian said.

 

 

But I'd trust the Nogaps in this storm before I use the 84h NAM.

[weathafella]

I renember when it did stop at 48. It was decent then.

[ORH_wxman]

I renember when it did stop at 48. It was decent then.

 

 

The old ETA and NGM used to both stop at 48h...I remember the huge deal it was when the ETA got extended to 60 hours. I think that was like 1999-2000 or so. Back then, the AVN only got run to 72 hours before it ran on lower resolution as the MRF beyond that...imagine the GFS truncating at 72 hours now?

 

 

We've come a long way in the NWP world in the past 15 years.

[CoastalWx]

Speaking of which, I just read that NCEP is doing an upgrade to the SREFs on the 26th.

[dendrite]

Speaking of which, I just read that NCEP is doing an upgrade to the SREFs on the 26th.

Yup

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-02sref_winter.htm

[OceanStWx]

Yup

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/tin14-02sref_winter.htm

 

Are we shocked that there were a couple of rogue models that were too moist because of initial conditions? Ha

 

I wanted to believe all those runs with 40+ inch plumes.

[SnowMan]

Are we shocked that there were a couple of rogue models that were too moist because of initial conditions? Ha

I wanted to believe all those runs with 40+ inch plumes.

You went with the word "moist" to describe the models showing too much QPF?

[dryslot]

Are we shocked that there were a couple of rogue models that were too moist because of initial conditions? Ha

 

I wanted to believe all those runs with 40+ inch plumes.

 

I'm still shoveling

[HoarfrostHubb]

Are we shocked that there were a couple of rogue models that were too moist because of initial conditions? Ha

I wanted to believe all those runs with 40+ inch plumes.

Somewhere in an alternate universe, those plumes verify

Somewhere I am Iron Man

[SouthCoastMA]

You went with the word "moist" to describe the models showing too much QPF?[/quote

They do use the word 'moist' if you read the update

[OceanStWx]

They do use the word 'moist' if you read the update

 

Right, the initial conditions were too moist, which ultimately led to QPF that was too high.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I only hope NNE gets hit. Either way we'll probably get 4-6" here over to N ORH. The trend is NOT good for NNE and no one can deny that, Northern ME may not see a flake.

Well I hope everyone gets hit, and they probably will In some capacity. Enough to go around

4-6 seems a bit low for that area IMO. Should do better than that

[weathafella]

Gfs holding pretty steady vs 18z.

[weathafella]

Man that's a shellacking. I'm getting excited now that we're in the d3-4 range.

[ORH_wxman]

Gfs holding pretty steady vs 18z.

 

 

Might even be a bit colder. That's a nice hit for SNE and CNE.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs holding pretty steady vs 18z.

Looks Like a shift SE.

[weathafella]

Looks Like a shift SE.

Not as much though. I think the southern trend is at the end?

[weathafella]

12/13/07 may be the best example here.

[SnowMan]

12/13/07 may be the best example here.

Horrible snow growth in that

[ORH_wxman]

Horrible snow growth in that

 

 

I'll take 10 inches of baking powder over 10 inches of fluff any day. To each his own.

[weathafella]

Horrible snow growth in that

But a great event. I'd take it in a heartbeat. Swfe often have less the stellar snowgrowthdue to the warming at mid levels in lower portion the sgz.

[CoastalWx]

Not as much though. I think the southern trend is at the end?

Looked like it as it got near ACK...more ENE movement. Anyways, it is still a real possibility it ticks north again if that confluence to the north is even a tad weaker. Looks like models are stabilizing relatively speaking.

[CoastalWx]

I'll take 10 inches of baking powder over 10 inches of fluff any day. To each his own.

Absolutely.

[moneypitmike]

Gfs holding pretty steady vs 18z.

 

Solid warning into CNE.