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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Its not going to really be a miller B...its a question of whether the sleet line makes it up into CNE or perhaps stays well south near the south coast.

 

In order to get a classic Miller B, we'd need a significant vortmax to our south with the 5H flow backed from the S or SSE or something. ...not really the setup we have here. We are pretty much guaranteed to have strong SW flow in the 5H to 7H layer...now if it goes far enough south, we may have levels like H8 and H85 try to back a bit...which can happen in further south SWFEs...we saw this in the 12/13/07 event where the sleet never made it to HFD....ditto for 12/19/08

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Its not going to really be a miller B...its a question of whether the sleet line makes it up into CNE or perhaps stays well south near the south coast.

 

In order to get a classic Miller B, we'd need a significant vortmax to our south with the 5H flow backed from the S or SSE or something. ...not really the setup we have here. We are pretty much guaranteed to have strong SW flow in the 5H to 7H layer...now if it goes far enough south, we may have levels like H8 and H85 try to back a bit...which can happen in further south SWFEs...we saw this in the 12/13/07 event where the sleet never made it to HFD.

It did make it to Bristol and HFd briefly for 1 hour. i remember that distinctly. I was so nervous about that. Gibbs told me it would ping to Mass border and you said it wouldn't get here. You were right. That was the one there was 11-12 inches from like Newburgh to just south of Foxboro

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I'm going to just start deleting whoa-is-me posts from CNE/NNE'ers.

 

 

People need to keep that crap in the banter thread. We're talking about how this system will evolve...and honestly, 96 hours on a SWFE with not much upstream blocking is an eternity for trying to pin down a 50-100 mile wide stripe.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Its not going to really be a miller B...its a question of whether the sleet line makes it up into CNE or perhaps stays well south near the south coast.

 

In order to get a classic Miller B, we'd need a significant vortmax to our south with the 5H flow backed from the S or SSE or something. ...not really the setup we have here. We are pretty much guaranteed to have strong SW flow in the 5H to 7H layer...now if it goes far enough south, we may have levels like H8 and H85 try to back a bit...which can happen in further south SWFEs...we saw this in the 12/13/07 event where the sleet never made it to HFD....ditto for 12/19/08

 

 

Mid-levels are still NW and the vort tracks over NNE. It still looks mostly isentropic outside of NNE.

ah Capiche, I was looking at surface NE winds for the duration on the Euro products. rays locked in on typical SWFE climo , not so sure this is typical

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

SWFE seem to be more in the 5-8, 6-9" family

 

 

They can be in the 8-12 range if there is little to no precip-type issues. All of the ones I mentioned upthread gave ORH over 8".

 

But yeah, widespread 12"+ just doesn't happen in these unless there is another component involved such as an inverted trough hanging back (see the day after 12/19/08) or a separate wave outrunning the main system like Feb 1-2, 2011.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Not much to add at this point to this discussion.  Still a long way to go.  Just continue to watch the confluence to the N and how it orients.  The other day it was modeled to be fractured.  Now its looking to take on a more classic look for a solid WAA thump for some.  Warmest layer looks to be just above 850mb, around the 800-775mb layer out in the eastern areas.  Definitely not a bad trend as of right now for the majority.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

One thing that does confuse me when you guys talk SWFE, I do not recall deform bands and comma head snows like it seems some of these products are showing, SWFEs to me are a wall of snow followed by dryslot and its over. Thats the reason I say atypical,. in actuality aren't most storms some sort of swfe to start? Reading over the years the typical SWFE has a primary thrusting WAA over a cold dome and the precip shutting off, yea there might be some ageo locking in cold air but eventually the WAA wins out , we dry out and warm up. Just not seeing this scenario on some products, may still happen but when I see the primary MLs grinded in the OH valley and a secondary near ACY travelling to the BM that says Miller B to me.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

One thing that does confuse me when you guys talk SWFE, I do not recall deform bands and comma head snows like it seems some of these products are showing, SWFEs to me are a wall of snow followed by dryslot and its over. Thats the reason I say atypical,. in actuality aren't most storms some sort of swfe to start? Reading over the years the typical SWFE has a primary thrusting WAA over a cold dome and the precip shutting off, yea there might be some ageo locking in cold air but eventually the WAA wins out , we dry out and warm up. Just not seeing this scenario on some products, may still happen but when I see the primary MLs grinded in the OH valley and a secondary near ACY travelling to the BM that says Miller B to me.

The GFS hits the dryslot to the MA/NH border.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

I guess that's what we were trying to convey..In a typical swfe event you don't get a secondary..or if you do it's more of a northerly cold tuck as the precip winds down. This isn't like that with a stronger secondary

 

Big difference between a surface reflection and new mid level centers developing off of SNE.

 

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

Yeah this system is about as close to a slam dunk for a snowday as your going to get Wednesday. That is, if it stays about as modeled right now (unlikely)

Man even in college, still something special about a snowday lol

Taunton will do okay Feb 5th, but relying on the front-end is always iffy.  Living there for 25 years, I'd expect 2-4", hope for 6-10" but know it's probably not gonna happen.  

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

One thing that does confuse me when you guys talk SWFE, I do not recall deform bands and comma head snows like it seems some of these products are showing, SWFEs to me are a wall of snow followed by dryslot and its over. Thats the reason I say atypical,. in actuality aren't most storms some sort of swfe to start? Reading over the years the typical SWFE has a primary thrusting WAA over a cold dome and the precip shutting off, yea there might be some ageo locking in cold air but eventually the WAA wins out , we dry out and warm up. Just not seeing this scenario on some products, may still happen but when I see the primary MLs grinded in the OH valley and a secondary near ACY travelling to the BM that says Miller B to me.

 

I would argue the stuff us northerners will see isn't true deformation. It's mainly intense frontogenesis as the WAA runs into the confluence to the N (at least on the latest Euro).

 

For true deformation you would need some closed mid level features for New England.

 

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted

Taunton will do okay Feb 5th, but relying on the front-end is always iffy. Living there for 25 years, I'd expect 2-4", hope for 6-10" but know it's probably not gonna happen.

Small world lol. Yeah I'm thinking 2-4 is a good call, however trends show we might be in for a bit more. 6-10, even if modeled right now, still seems like a longshot in this setup for this area

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Not that anyone asked, but this is all rather fantastic to me anyway... There really is no formal definition in the Meteorological science for SWFE ...

 

Create the page "SWFE" on this wiki!

Query failed: connection to localhost:9312 failed (errno=111, msg=Connection refused)

 

-or-

 

Create the page "southwest flow event" on this wiki!

Query failed: connection to localhost:9312 failed (errno=111, msg=Connection refused)

 

it's just a description for a type of system passage that emerged as a meme in the forumsphere. It may have merit, and I agree, the parameters of having a mid level warm flow override and acute llv cold wedge very much should be refereed and sent through the scientific process...  

 

But, fact of the matter is, we learned as under grad that whenever you see a primary low go through a weakening sequence, with a new low pressure node evolving near the coast or coastal waters, that is a secondary low/Miller B period.  There is no other requirement to be defined that way..

 

In this case it appears the somantic SWFE thing is concurrent with a Miller B activity.

 

 

Seems there is some confusion between this invented SWFE thing and a actual science.   In this situation, the evaluation of the lower level mass fields clearly indicates a Miller B type of redevelopment taking place, and the cause is clearly because the BL inhibition is too much to allow the low to cut west of the region.  If the attending, parental dynamics aloft were stronger, perhaps it could, but it's an attenuating wave that still provides enough lift for a "tilte" system in the vertical depth.  But the sfc depiction evolution is a weak Miller B

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