February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[CT Rain]

Synoptically, the Euro and GFS are worlds apart.

 

The Euro solution essentially puts the shortwave through a meat grinder based on how the PV over Labrador/Hudson Bay orients itself. The result is you get a mid level low that makes it to Pittsburgh and essentially falls apart. You're left with a fairly strong mid level front that stretches from the PA Turnpike to south of SNE with a thump of QPF along and north of it. The solution is not as "juicy" but definitely colder as the shortwave responsible for all this damps out.

 

The GFS, on the otherhand, has your typical SWFE with the s/w remaining relatively in tact and the 850mb low ramming northeast toward CYUL. 

[TalcottWx]

Way...way too early to worry about anything. This goes for both SNE and NNE.

South of the pike has plenty to worry about lol

[TalcottWx]

I love these events. Comes in hard and fast and is high impact. Snow won't be blowing off the road when a car drives by, lol.

[Johnno]

I love these events. Comes in hard and fast and is high impact. Snow won't be blowing off the road when a car drives by, lol.

Violently agree

[CoastalWx]

I love these events. Comes in hard and fast and is high impact. Snow won't be blowing off the road when a car drives by, lol.

It will for you if the euro/Canadian/ukmet are right lol.

[TalcottWx]

Violently agree

And being by Ray instead of sitting next to Logan is a huge benefit for the remainder of my college career lol.

[TalcottWx]

It will for you if the euro/Canadian/ukmet are right lol.

I tend to be in your party saying this may still have time to come back north. Such small little waffles in track could easily misguide some people in the South into thinking they will get more snow. If that secondary tracks like it has @ 12z I'll be pushing powder rather than slop. I'll take either. Dying for something that drops at least 6". I think you sit in one of the more tricky spots out of everyone. Tough forecast for you there.

[CoastalWx]

I tend to be in your party saying this may still have time to come back north. Such small little waffles in track could easily misguide some people in the South into thinking they will get more snow. If that secondary tracks like it has @ 12z I'll be pushing powder rather than slop. I'll take either. Dying for something that drops at least 6". I think you sit in one of the more tricky spots out of everyone. Tough forecast for you there.

The only tricky thing is the track. I'll do whatever Logan will do. It probably will tick north a bit. However if the confluence remains there...then it may change that.

[moneypitmike]

Well, Mike I intimated that something must be up with that analog....I certainly don't expect over 1', anywhere.

VD 2000 makes much more sense.

 

I know--I was just joshin' with you.

 

Euro is near the BM.

 

Congrats--give me inside.

 

MPM will get to put away his shawl.

 

Never.

 

Toasty out there today.

 

37.2/23

[TalcottWx]

The only tricky thing is the track. I'll do whatever Logan will do. It probably will tick north a bit. However if the confluence remains there...then it may change that.

I just hope we all do well. My snowcover is down to its last breath with this mini torch.

[TalcottWx]

Before people throw out big time amounts keep in mind that this is a short duration 6-8 hour event. Looks like huge implications for the Wednesday morning commute depending on changes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still plenty of time to trend north.

Yea, its not going that far south.

[40/70 Benchmark]

And being by Ray instead of sitting next to Logan is a huge benefit for the remainder of my college career lol.

You're in a bit better of a spot than I am.

Andover, Tewksbury to Billerica is that one last push inland that is needed a lot.

[free_man]

A 100mi tick NW in coming days would be nice.

[jaf]

Agree - I think this will end up more like the GFS.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, its not going that far south.

On the other hand, progressivity has been favored this season, so the EURO could be right in grinding that sw.

We'll see.

 

Watch, it was right in shredding the last one that just missed me, but this one will stay in tact, and be to my detriment.

[CoastalWx]

I just hope we all do well. My snowcover is down to its last breath with this mini torch.

I can't believe how much snow is OTG down in the south shore. It's just patches at home and a solid 3-4" down there. My area is a snowpack pit because of that dam hill and exposure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

we always seem to get these super cold runs before it goes back north

I remember that the NAM kept really underdoing the LLJ in those swfe of '08 and '09.....it kept pulling the football from the nyc crowd, and they bought it every time

[ma blizzard]

feeling good about this one in lowell. 12z modeling has the perfect combo of waa driven snow to deformation snows on the backside. def would be surprised if this doesn't tick north within 48-72 hrs

[TalcottWx]

I can't believe how much snow is OTG down in the south shore. It's just patches at home and a solid 3-4" down there. My area is a snowpack pit because of that dam hill and exposure.

I assume your in Weymouth rather than S Weymouth. I imagine snowfall totals are actually marginally higher near the air station versus 3a. Maybe actually more than marginal.

[SnowMan]

Nice

I know QPF isn't everything but assuming we stay all snow up here that looks like more than a foot of snow.

[CoastalWx]

I assume your in Weymouth rather than S Weymouth. I imagine snowfall totals are actually marginally higher near the air station versus 3a. Maybe actually more than marginal.

S Weymouth is Weymouth....only the southern part of it. It has more to do with them getting about 7" more snow down here combined last week and the week before. That will make a difference. Also wooded areas hold it better.

[weathafella]

Euro ensembles nearly identical to the op for 2/5. Big snows for many.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles nearly identical to the op for 2/5. Big snows for many.

Yeah right near 40N traveling ENE.

[Ginx snewx]

Euro ensembles nearly identical to the op for 2/5. Big snows for many.

Boing, nice trend

[OceanStWx]

Yeah right near 40N traveling ENE.

 

Should have Ekster disrobing on his flight back from OKX. Euro would absolutely smoke srn NH to just a tickle S of PWM with 700 mb frontogenesis.

[jm1220]

I remember that the NAM kept really underdoing the LLJ in those swfe of '08 and '09.....it kept pulling the football from the nyc crowd, and they bought it every time

The climo for storms like these is worlds better for you guys than it is for us. The further NE you can get, the better. It'll probably end up that way again with this one. I guess our hope is that the progressive pattern keeps it from amplifying that much and the CAD causes the low to transfer quicker than the GFS has. The GFS is just brutal down here-an hour of snow maybe, then ice inland and a soaking near the shore.

[HoarfrostHubb]

N ORH county in good shape?

[CoastalWx]

Should have Ekster disrobing on his flight back from OKX. Euro would absolutely smoke srn NH to just a tickle S of PWM with 700 mb frontogenesis.

Yeah it had that look. Definitely disrobing material.

[CoastalWx]

N ORH county in good shape?

Yes