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February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Yes they are, but as James said, some winters the normal stuff doesn't happen, you can't just rely on the climo norm in this winter's events ;) ;)

 

 

Well according to King James, the PV is going to help suppress Feb 5th...but somehow I guess he isn't seeing the Hudson Bay PV suppressing Feb 3rd...that one will trend north into a big Feb 3rd hit for Cape Cod, MA.

 

 

In all seriousness, this one has a ways to go.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Climo won't take over for particular winters, like 04-05 winter that stayed pretty much our winter throughout the season, didn't change all that much even into March.  So not all winters favor climate, there are some that have favored SNE in the first half before changing to NNE in the second half, but just because climo suggests one thing does not mean the weather will follow suit.  I think this storm will be a big SNE snow producer with a further southeast shift in store, favoring CNE and SNE with the heaviest snows.  NNE will get in on the action, perhaps up to 6", but this one is trending southeastward as the Polar Vortex over Southern Canada shifts southeastward.

:weenie: :weenie:  I really would like to give you a cannon load of them

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Well according to King James, the PV is going to help suppress Feb 5th...but somehow I guess he isn't seeing the Hudson Bay PV suppressing Feb 3rd...that one will trend north into a big Feb 3rd hit for Cape Cod, MA.

 

 

In all seriousness, this one has a ways to go.

 

Weenie goggles on in full IMBY mode

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

PF will complain his way to 6-12" from this like Ray usually does.

Haha...you'll just sit back and get 6-12" regardless, maybe more ;)

In all honesty it would be astonishing should this turn into a 2-4" deal after the last three days of model runs up here while BOS gets 10-14" again. We would just have to chuckle.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Haha...you'll just sit back and get 6-12" regardless, maybe more ;)

In all honesty it would be astonishing should this turn into a 2-4" deal after the last three days of model runs up here while BOS gets 10-14" again. We would just have to chuckle.

 

Would that be right after you smashed the keyboard or before?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

6.5"....you are fascinated with our snow cover. You asked yesterday and the day before :lol:. It was 9.5" then 7.5" and now 6.5" this morning. I'll shoot ya a PM with the value tomorrow.

look at my thumb and index finger rubbing together, the world's smallest violin, it's playing my heart bleeds for you.
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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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lol it's at the comical stage. I think it'll come back north, it's just ya gotta laugh at it. No sense getting angry, I'm not an angry person haha.

Well the persistence of the screwgies can reach a point where anger just overwhelms and surprises , give it time.

Maybe u take it out on a family skiing down the mtn, and cut off some women lolly gagging down the slopes (hogging the trail), maybe u lose it during mtn ops meeting when someone forecasts big snow but hasnt seen models collapse se at 12z, perhaps its road rage from someone honking at you as you glimpse at the 12z euro ticking as u stop at red light. Lol

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Man I wonder if we can score an all snow coup for most of the region. Although seems like swfe always trend a tickle warmer as we get close

I think most of those late northerly bumps are related to SE convection and the SE ridging getting pumped up a bit more via latent heating/condensation. If the convection is meh then maybe you'll score mostly snow on the front end until the mid-level dryslot punches through. We're not even totally in the NAM window yet so a lot can change.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

12z UKMET is pretty far SE as well. Similar to the Canadian. My guess is the Euro will probably be pretty cold too given the rest of the 12z suite's trends.

The poster ADK and I were just talking about it (and he's never felt this one at all up here) but the trough just keeps getting flatter and flatter. Look at 500mb and yesterday the GGEM had the vort going to Toronto and today it tracks over SNE. Retains neutral tilt the whole way and it's faster/flatter.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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I think most of those late northerly bumps are related to SE convection and the SE ridging getting pumped up a bit more via latent heating/condensation. If the convection is meh then maybe you'll score mostly snow on the front end until the mid-level dryslot punches through. We're not even totally in the NAM window yet so a lot can change.

 

Are we ever?

 

Most of the time WAA is underdone aloft and overdone at the surface with these types of systems. That's how I would play it, hedge in that direction.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I think most of those late northerly bumps are related to SE convection and the SE ridging getting pumped up a bit more via latent heating/condensation. If the convection is meh then maybe you'll score mostly snow on the front end until the mid-level dryslot punches through. We're not even totally in the NAM window yet so a lot can change.

TBH I kind of was hoping for a nice snow thump and then maybe 1/2 inch of ice accretion from zr. That seems possible I suppose
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Well the persistence of the screwgies can reach a point where anger just overwhelms and surprises , give it time.

Maybe u take it out on a family skiing down the mtn, and cut off some women lolly gagging down the slopes (hogging the trail), maybe u lose it during mtn ops meeting when someone forecasts big snow but hasnt seen models collapse se at 12z, perhaps its road rage from someone honking at you as you glimpse at the 12z euro ticking as u stop at red light. Lol

Then I remember I still play in the snow for a living. I just never really grew up. I used to get much more angry in high school in the Albany area, staring out at a desolate brown city that manufacturing left behind. But some knee deep pow would be appreciated once in a while.

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