February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[ctsnowstorm628]

Amazing. Every single time there is a last second jog north. Lots on here anticipated that.

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[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/4/2014 at 3:52 AM, weathafella said:

Truthfully though gfs has a lot of qpf as snow....so I'm not sure it will make a big difference as it's maybe just a smidge at one point. Mets?

 

 

Yeah wherever the sleet line makes it...its like 95% snow anyway..prob to about 10 miles south of it. If the pingers get to about 20 miles north of you or more, then I'd be more concerned about them eating into snow accums more substantially. It never makes it to BOS on this run I don't think anyway...maybe within 10-15 miles. More like southern MA border...maybe just a brief kiss of the pike out that way...maybe.

[Sn0waddict]

Hm was thinking we would hold off on rain with this storm. That might not be the case with this last second tick north, looks good for those above the CT border though.

[Snow Bow]

  On 2/4/2014 at 3:52 AM, OceanStWx said:

I'm about as high on QPF as I feel comfortable with right now. I'm generating a map right now for your viewing pleasure.

Put those weenie goggles on before finalizing...Love the job you (and the others) do up there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/4/2014 at 3:56 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah wherever the sleet line makes it...its like 95% snow anyway..prob to about 10 miles south of it. If the pingers get to about 20 miles north of you or more, then I'd be more concerned about them eating into snow accums more substantially. It never makes it to BOS on this run I don't think anyway...maybe within 10-15 miles. More like southern MA border...maybe just a brief kiss of the pike out that way...maybe.

 

  On 2/4/2014 at 3:56 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah wherever the sleet line makes it...its like 95% snow anyway..prob to about 10 miles south of it. If the pingers get to about 20 miles north of you or more, then I'd be more concerned about them eating into snow accums more substantially. It never makes it to BOS on this run I don't think anyway...maybe within 10-15 miles. More like southern MA border...maybe just a brief kiss of the pike out that way...maybe.

Won't be a big deal for Jerry unless I ping.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I would assume by the discussion that I'm at least pinging a little bit on this particular run?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm glad that it ticked north.

There.

I've said it.

 

Maybe one more tickly regression.

[OceanStWx]

 

Pretty similar to the Euro/Nam. Maybe a touch high on the northern end of the gradient.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/4/2014 at 3:52 AM, weathafella said:

Truthfully though gfs has a lot of qpf as snow....so I'm not sure it will make a big difference as it's maybe just a smidge at one point. Mets?

If the Euro changes drastically it will still be 95% snow. The AWTs are a bit early.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/4/2014 at 3:50 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, this little nudge north is very typical...can't say we didn't expect it.

 

PArt of the reaosn why I like that rt 2 corridor for a jackpot...prob safe from pingers and also some weenie rotting fronto snows as the low exits.

 

I've actually been wondering about that... subtle NORLUN look to the exit pressure pattern in the NAM, and the mid level jets are matching somewhat.  Could be some lift lingering along the NH/MA border region.

[Snow Bow]

  On 2/4/2014 at 4:04 AM, OceanStWx said:

QPF.jpg

 

Pretty similar to the Euro/Nam. Maybe a touch high on the northern end of the gradient.

nice looking map, can see where that 10-14 would be/is on snowfall map pretty well

[TheSnowman]

So now the GFS is raining and pinging me.  Oh God.  

 

I'm enjoying my 4" of Snow today though.  Big time.    

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/4/2014 at 4:12 AM, TheSnowman said:

So now the GFS is raining and pinging me. Oh God.

I'm enjoying my 4" of Snow today though. Big time.

Dude the GFS never rains you. You might ping after 8-10, geezus

[Typhoon Tip]

Curious:  there could be mountains of data pointing to a significant event, and people seem to loosely comment on it, but the first guidance source that offers any distraction, however insignificant and not a factor (like the GFS) and people pound out post about it.

 

Trust me: your heroin fix is not being violated you paranoid snow cooks.  ah, hahahahaha

[TheSnowman]

I go Below Freezing on the 500mb, 850-700mb, 850mb, AND the 10M Temps maps.  How do I not Rain?  

[dendrite]

  On 2/4/2014 at 4:22 AM, TheSnowman said:

I go Below Freezing on the 500mb, 850-700mb, 850mb, AND the 10M Temps maps.  How do I not Rain?

Say what?

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/4/2014 at 4:22 AM, TheSnowman said:

I go Below Freezing on the 500mb, 850-700mb, 850mb, AND the 10M Temps maps. How do I not Rain?

You have roughly..8 of snow before you ping. I would not sweat it

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM tickled north too...but that's pretty redundant to the RGEM coming north.

[SnowGoose69]

I preached this in the NY forum already but watch for an early start time on this...the NAM being neck and neck on the advancement timing of the precip shield with the GFS is very unusual given it tends to have a good 3 hour lag 9 out of 10 times...the RGEM also advanced the start time 2 hours or so in many areas from its 12Z run.

[Ginx snewx]

Cory GFS bufkit has 8.6 snow for you before..12 ip

[weathafella]

OT but this is a weenie and a half gfs run...lol.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Easily going to be the worst commute of the winter Wednesday morning. Take it easy folks

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/4/2014 at 4:40 AM, weathafella said:

OT but this is a weenie and a half gfs run...lol.

So many porn runs this week ,it is exhausting.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/4/2014 at 4:43 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Easily going to be the worst commute of the winter Wednesday morning. Take it easy folks

This one has enough acknowledgement by the public though. My wifes job has already planned to close wed, today. Im sure some sicko bosses will expect their mules in to churn out the numbers though....to those, GL!

[ORH_wxman]

The just-updated CIPS analog page is like a who's who of southwest flow events tonight:

 

[Ginx snewx]

Leon dominating! 2/11/94 was just great and Ray said earlier they were way south of the Pike specials. Everyone is sick of hearing it but when I read the bumped Miller thread all I could think of was 94, overrunning, swfe, Miller B, just look at tonight's GFS porn

[Ginx snewx]

For you Cory, no rain and a little sleet after 8-10 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Ksfz

[Ginx snewx]

Nothing like a 35 -40 inch total 15 day run of the GFS to excite the weenie.

[SnowGoose69]

  On 2/4/2014 at 5:00 AM, ORH_wxman said:

The just-updated CIPS analog page is like a who's who of southwest flow events tonight:

 

 

1/3/96 may very be the closest match...although the air mass in place this time is colder

[ctsnowstorm628]

Another jog north on the 0z Euro. Not surprising. Gets decent snows back into NNE too.Still cold though.