February 5th beefed up swfe thread-let's get some December 2007 juju,

[RobbieL241]

BOX watch texts have 6-10 up into SW NH which likely means the 10-14 really means lolls to 11-12 in higher elevations.

[tamarack]

  On 2/3/2014 at 9:28 PM, coldfront said:

Lol that's my spot

 

After Lava Hill. 

 

However, verification the GYX map would erase the 3" margin I now enjoy.  However, a high-end WWA storm would put my season total right about on the average for the date.

[weathafella]

  On 2/3/2014 at 9:23 PM, RI Rob said:

I just think the higher totals are a bit too widespread.

Classic swfe climo though.

[dendrite]

  On 2/3/2014 at 9:34 PM, RobbieL241 said:

BOX watch texts have 6-10 up into SW NH which likely means the 10-14 really means lolls to 11-12 in higher elevations.

Thanks for letting us know what their thinking is.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/3/2014 at 9:32 PM, OceanStWx said:

If I said 10-11" would you say that's too bullish? Try to ignore the high end of that range.

do the products have only specific ranges they can put out? Could it say 10-12"?

[OceanStWx]

  On 2/3/2014 at 9:44 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

do the products have only specific ranges they can put out? Could it say 10-12"?

 

Correct, in order to keep the colors consistent from event to event those ranges are hard wired.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/3/2014 at 9:45 PM, OceanStWx said:

Correct, in order to keep the colors consistent from event to event those ranges are hard wired.

makes sense. Good map by both GYX and BOX.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

hard linking so we have it later..but I like this map down here for right now.  4-6 seems very reasonable, 5-7 maybe.  Plenty of time to move in either direction.

 

 

[dryslot]

Looks like 18z GFS ticked back north from 12z

[MaineJayhawk]

  On 2/3/2014 at 9:57 PM, coldfront said:

Looks like 18z GFS ticked back north from 12z

 

Noticed that.  The 24-48 hr northward correction, perhaps

[RobbieL241]

ALB went balls to the wall

[eyewall]

A 2-4 snoozer for BTV. Still can't buy a warning event this year.

[dryslot]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:00 PM, MaineJayhawk said:

Noticed that.  The 24-48 hr northward correction, perhaps

 

Thats been the call as we get closer in, Not as robust qpf wise south as it has cut back but a broader area of .50" qpf up here which are more in line with the Euro

[OceanStWx]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:00 PM, MaineJayhawk said:

Noticed that.  The 24-48 hr northward correction, perhaps

 

It was definitely on the dry side of model guidance up here, not surprising that it tickled north.

[dryslot]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:09 PM, OceanStWx said:

It was definitely on the dry side of model guidance up here, not surprising that it tickled north.

 

Yes it has been, That's actually the 1st run where its pushed the .50" qpf north

[PWMan]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:09 PM, OceanStWx said:

It was definitely on the dry side of model guidance up here, not surprising that it tickled north.

Pleasantly surprised to see what the GYX map shows for the PWM area. Seems like the recent model runs are really hitting the hang-back snows.

[kmcfarland99]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:47 PM, PWMan said:

Pleasantly surprised to see what the GYX map shows for the PWM area. Seems like the recent model runs are really hitting the hang-back snows.

It will be interesting to see how well that verifies for this area.

[butterfish55]

Too early to ask about start times for this?

[klw]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:00 PM, RobbieL241 said:

ALB went balls to the wall

 

Another Woodford, VT jackpot?!

[OceanStWx]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:47 PM, PWMan said:

Pleasantly surprised to see what the GYX map shows for the PWM area. Seems like the recent model runs are really hitting the hang-back snows.

 

Even the worst case model QPF (18z GFS) would be 6-8" for PWM.

[TalcottWx]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:50 PM, butterfish55 said:

Too early to ask about start times for this?

Starts 4-7am and wraps up around dinner time in the east.

[weathafella]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:51 PM, sbos_wx said:

Starts 4-7am and wraps up around dinner time in the east.

Starts pre dawn and the heavy stuff ends mid afternoon or perhaps sooner. This ones flying.

[butterfish55]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:51 PM, sbos_wx said:

Starts 4-7am and wraps up around dinner time in the east.

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:53 PM, weathafella said:

Starts pre dawn and the heavy stuff ends mid afternoon or perhaps sooner. This ones flying.

Thanks fellas.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I see no issues with BOX map. It's going to snow for everyone.

[TalcottWx]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:53 PM, weathafella said:

Starts pre dawn and the heavy stuff ends mid afternoon or perhaps sooner. This ones flying.

It's moving fast but look for a little light snow to linger on the backend. I believe Raynham is too far South for that though.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:50 PM, butterfish55 said:

Too early to ask about start times for this?

For your area it begins 3:00am or so and snows all day..heaviest till mid afternoon..but snow lingers into Wed nite

[Dave5]

Where does Newington, CT fall on the mixing line as of now?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/3/2014 at 11:09 PM, sbos_wx said:

It's moving fast but look for a little light snow to linger on the backend. I believe Raynham is too far South for that though.

These setups always seem to move a bit quicker than modeled. If people keep their expectations in the lower range of the BOX forecast there should be no disappointment

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 2/3/2014 at 10:50 PM, butterfish55 said:

Too early to ask about start times for this?

Pre dawn i would say.

Well be right on the line if we stay all snow or ping. Probably doesn't matter either way

4-8+ for us

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

nice during the day event...heavy rates over a short period. me likes.

 

nice call pros and certain weenies on calling for an active beginning to Feb. Id pat myself on the back but I cant reach over my bulging traps.