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A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Miiler B.

 

 

No, more of a hybrid Miller B...you can see how the mid-level centers do not redevelop until they reach the latitude of almost 41N...note the primary 850 low still visible back in W PA.

 

 

Thanks... I was a bit confused by the GFS look vs what some had posted... I thought it looked more B'ish on that.

 

But the Euro wants a Miller A... interesting to see what happens

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

If we had a more stout -NAO or a stronger PNA ridge, we could get it moving more slowly. Its a fast moving system as far as large coastal storms go. In and out in about 15 hours.

 

The weak NAO blocking will be something to track if it trends stronger.

I'm seeing at least a 24 hour storm modeled on the GFS.  The steering flow is fast, but since it develops mid-level lows, the wraparound precip really lingers.  I think it's really too early to get a feel for the possible duration.  I wouldn't expect long duration if we get a storm, but I wouldn't rule it out either.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Don't worry about that now. Enjoy what could be an epic week. Fwiw, just saw something that shows over 30 inches of snow by next week. Imagine

I haven't had over 1" of snow since Jan. 3 (which of course I was out of town for).  Just get me over that ever elusive total and you coastal dwellers can have your 2' snowpack.  And let's get PF his warning snow while we're at it.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

I haven't had over 1" of snow since Jan. 3 (which of course I was out of town for).  Just get me over that ever elusive total and you coastal dwellers can have your 2' snowpack.  And let's get PF his warning snow while we're at it.

 

wow... didn't know the ALB area had it so rough too lately. 

 

BTV threw this out there on the next weekend event...still pondering the amount of phasing possible, but persistent forecast on the way the winter has gone may be a good way to go this far out.

 

THIS SYSTEM WL ONCE AGAIN HAVE PLENTY

OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT STILL SOME QUESTION

WITH REGARDS TO PHASING ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY

OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND FAST CONFLUENT FLW ALOFT. LATEST TRENDS

HAVE BEEN FOR SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO EJECT AHEAD OF NORTHERN

STREAM ENERGY AND SFC LOW PRES RACING SOUTH OF THE 40/70

BENCHMARK...RESULTING IN A SHARP SOUTH TO NORTH QPF/MOISTURE

GRADIENT ACRS OUR FA. WE HAVE SEEN THIS SCENARIO MANY TIMES BEFORE

THIS WINTER.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

NNE's need to chillax. I've never seen the group so negative. PF will probably end up jackpotting when all is said and done. It's a week out.

I feel as good as you can feel for this far out.  It is my week at home.  i know the confluence will be pretty strong but it doesn't seem like it will cut out fast.  A strong storm might want to come west and north a bit more.  And usually the trend is n and w as long as the setup isn't hostile.  It is a strong signal from 10 days out that is only seeming to converge.  When will the weenie panic run happen before the storm comes back?  We are in a great spot tomorrow (tho I am in NYC) and I think a good spot one week out.  Kinda cool that we have a shot a 2 big storms in a 5 day period.

 

I'm a pack ho, so of course I am starting to ponder the feb 12-15 period.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

wow... didn't know the ALB area had it so rough too lately. 

 

There has been snow in the air this month.  The KALB reported 1.1, 1.4, and 1.0 on various days this month.  But the airport is in a slightly snowier spot than downtown.  I haven't actually measured anything over an inch.  The escarpment, berks, and southern greens have had a few light events.  But downsloping has hurt the immediate valley areas.  When you add everything up, statistically we're going to be right on target for a normal season after Wed.  It just doesn't feel like it with both decent storms this season immediately wiped out by warm and rain.  This might be the beginning of a great stretch, however.  And I think the northern areas are suffering much more than ENY valleys with respect to normal.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

NNE's need to chillax. I've never seen the group so negative. PF will probably end up jackpotting when all is said and done. It's a week out.

 

 

Having an underperformer followed by cutters and all the big tickets missing to the south can make a snow lover a little punchy :)

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted

Do you think it is time for a separate thread on the 8th-9th?  Don't want to jinx it but this has become the defacto thread.

 

Isn't it really 10th-11th anyhow? And I have a hunch that keeping "technical discussion" in the thread title has defacto filtered a bit of... riffraff from the thread via discouragement. Might want to continue its use.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Isn't it really 10th-11th anyhow? And I have a hunch that keeping "technical discussion" in the thread title has defacto filtered a bit of... riffraff from the thread via discouragement. Might want to continue its use.

I resemble that remark.

 

Some possible panic to our south re the 18z gfs.  980 in the GOM is a dream for me....deepening towards our latitude as opposed to sliding out.  longer duration,  waa followed by deformation...NICE.

 

How does it look for the SNE?

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