A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

[HoarfrostHubb]

Is that really a classic Miller A look?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

What a big look in the upper levels...unfortunately there is alot of moving parts to this, we dont have all upstream features set in place...they still have to get there.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Decent length snows, too

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, It pushes the H5 low swinging thru the lower ohio valley off to the NE under SNE

 

You guys in NNE need that too or else it's congrats interior Ontario.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Is that really a classic Miller A look?

 

Miiler B.

[dryslot]

You guys in NNE need that too or else it's congrats interior Ontario.

 

No doub't, A storm of that magnitude with that expansive shield a BM track would work, I never like seeing the H5 low go way west of here cutter city

[codfishsnowman]

weenie snow map threw 180 on the gfs we can only hope

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?orun=2014020312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=180

wow....if we get the true northerly flow we can get rid of that middle finger in the valley but ill take a middle finger like that any day

[ORH_wxman]

Is that really a classic Miller A look?

 

 

No, more of a hybrid Miller B...you can see how the mid-level centers do not redevelop until they reach the latitude of almost 41N...note the primary 850 low still visible back in W PA.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro is crusher. Miller A. Perfect track, -8 850's, no precip type issues. Banana high . 12+ for region.

[ineedsnow]

I think most would love for the Euro to verify wow

[Damage In Tolland]

992 BM

[CoastalWx]

Where is Kevin getting his info? LOL. Yes, boom.

[ctsnowstorm628]

The Euro is pretty...that has "Ed's visiting SNE" written all over it.

[JC-CT]

It's pretty early for the "it's all downhill from here" run.

[ineedsnow]

hr 168 980mb  that would be an awesome storm

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah classic Miller A on the Euro as opposed to more of a Miller B hybrid on the GFS.

 

 

Both solutions are well within the envelope right now...even a cutter is still plausible. So I wouldn't get too obsessed with model play by play yet.

[nutmegfriar]

Maybe it was the Super Bowl, but most people I have spoken with this morning have been caught off guard by today's snow and seem bewildered when I mention the possibilities for Wednesday and this weekend.  If the Euro is right, some folks may really be surprised.  My concern is prolonged icing but it sounds as if things may be leaning colder for Wednesday.

[CT Rain]

Where is Kevin getting his info? LOL. Yes, boom.

Shabbs

 

I may get my once every few year snow depth fetish cranked up if the Euro is right. Wow. 

[CoastalWx]

Shabbs

 

I may get my once every few year snow depth fetish cranked up if the Euro is right. Wow. 

 

Man Kevin spits that info out fast. I'm surprised because he's probably disrobing at the same time.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely some big players arguing for a sizeable storm...but too much time for a few things to shift around and cause a whiff or inside runner.

 

However, once again models have a pretty nice agreement on a storm this far out.

[Damage In Tolland]

Man Kevin spits that info out fast. I'm surprised because he's probably disrobing at the same time.

A plethora of wx knowledge

[TalcottWx]

Driveway piled shall tower as high as goliath in the noble town of tolland

[ORH_wxman]

Definitely some big players arguing for a sizeable storm...but too much time for a few things to shift around and cause a whiff or inside runner.

 

However, once again models have a pretty nice agreement on a storm this far out.

 

If we had a more stout -NAO or a stronger PNA ridge, we could get it moving more slowly. Its a fast moving system as far as large coastal storms go. In and out in about 15 hours.

 

The weak NAO blocking will be something to track if it trends stronger.

[Heisy]

Yea this isn't the 00z GFS closed off stalled type storm, it actually does phase with the shortwave over the Lakes, but not until Canada, I still favor a more inland track. 

[eyewall]

12Z Euro is south with yet another miss for my portion of NNE (sfc low moves from the Delmarva to just outside the benchmark). When I say miss I mean sub-warning snow.

[dryslot]

12Z Euro is south with yet another miss for my portion of NNE (sfc low moves from the Delmarva to just outside the benchmark). When I say miss I mean sub-warning snow.

 

Not that its etched in stone or matters by any means at this point, But this is what i was talking about with Miller A's up here, Its the boot ENE at the BM that does us in quite frequently instead of a track thru the bay of fundy or over the southern tip of Novi, That's why i like when they cross 41/70, If the get the boot from there we still get ripped

[jamesnichols1989]

I like the 40/70 benchmark track from the GOM with this system, I don't think we see an inland track with this storm, push of an arctic air mass comes through on the backside of the Wed storm and then a large arctic high sits over NNE.  Right now troughing sets up over the west coast of the US with ridging on the backside, still another 6 days, but I'm quite confident in a storm right now.

[Damage In Tolland]

I guess our one worry..if you can call it that..is the period after the superbomb this weeeknd. Is the 2nd half of Feb..just normal with no storms as the EPO goes positive?

 

So much hinges upon the NAO.

 

Hopefully we don't just go normal and dry..cause by the end of Feb that means meh

[TalcottWx]

I guess our one worry..if you can call it that..is the period after the superbomb this weeeknd. Is the 2nd half of Feb..just normal with no storms as the EPO goes positive?

 

So much hinges upon the NAO.

 

Hopefully we don't just go normal and dry..cause by the end of Feb that means meh

Way out here, just saying what is shows not that it matters. Mid atlantic is in the 70's with a se ridge at the end of the run and alaska goes into the freezer. All horrible for snow lovers.

 

GFS

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Don't worry about that now. Enjoy what could be an epic week. Fwiw, just saw something that shows over 30 inches of snow by next week. Imagine