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A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

While I agree (for the Euro), I would not be shocked to see the GFS move a little north

It will probably compromise to kiss the islands with light snow. I would love for the euro to be right, but just seems a bit too far north. FWIW there were decent precip probabilities for the south coast on the ensembles.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Just starting to look at this now but the GEFS looked like they wanted to push both the 5th and the 10th up over us at least?

Looks like a favorable period incoming particularly the further north you go. Stowe is going to cash in for a lot of lost time.

Lots of congrats up here for systems that are both 5 and 10 days away...if only we could shovel 200+ hour jackpots ;)

But I'm on for a decent February because I figure one of these winter months should come in near normal with snow...it's gotta snow synoptically eventually, not the 6" in 54 hour "events" lol.

I just think the interesting part is how similar the two storms look on the models...it's almost like who ever gets hit with the first one gets the second one too. The 00z ECM hit SNE harder with both of them, 12z GFS hits NNE harder with both of them.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Lots of congrats up here for systems that are both 5 and 10 days away...if only we could shovel 200+ hour jackpots ;)

But I'm on for a decent February because I figure one of these winter months should come in near normal with snow...it's gotta snow synoptically eventually, not the 6" in 54 hour "events" lol.

I just think the interesting part is how similar the two storms look on the models...it's almost like who ever gets hit with the first one gets the second one too. The 00z ECM hit SNE harder with both of them, 12z GFS hits NNE harder with both of them.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Lots of congrats up here for systems that are both 5 and 10 days away...if only we could shovel 200+ hour jackpots ;)

But I'm on for a decent February because I figure one of these winter months should come in near normal with snow...it's gotta snow synoptically eventually, not the 6" in 54 hour "events" lol.

I just think the interesting part is how similar the two storms look on the models...it's almost like who ever gets hit with the first one gets the second one too. The 00z ECM hit SNE harder with both of them, 12z GFS hits NNE harder with both of them.

The congrats for Wesnesday is warranted. You aren't gonna miss out.

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Bigfoot

Bigfoot

Posted
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Just starting to look at this now but the GEFS looked like they wanted to push both the 5th and the 10th up over us at least?

 

Looks like a favorable period incoming particularly the further north you go.  Stowe is going to cash in for a lot of lost time.

yes! if stowe gets it ,hudson valley cashes in too right? whooo Hooo,finally maybe,,good bye snow hole..lol
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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The 00z Feb 1st guidance continued to show two potential major winter storms for the region...the first one becoming very likely on February 5th. The 00z ensmeble guidance across all model was a bit colder and further south suggesting a snowier scenario...and less ice...however, given we are still about 4 days out, this has time to change yet again. (see running Feb 5th thread)

 

 

The 2nd potential larger scale winter storm still is strong on ensemble guidance for Feb 8-9. The latest ECMWF ensemble mean tracks a significant system into the Ohio Valley with secondary coastal cyclogenesis near the Delmarva. There was considerable spread amongst the members which is to be expected atthis time range.

 

 

Near the end of the period covered in this thread, the 00z guidance has continued a subtle shift seen the last couple cycles toward a -NAO/-PNA/-WPO pattern...the -NAO being the more subtle shift. If the -NAO can become a more significant feature in this pattern heading into middle February, then the outlook would continue to be a cold/snowy outlook for New England...such similar patterns of -WPO/-PNA/-NAO occured in February 1969, early February 1979, and late February 1956.

 

A stronger positive NAO could result in a milder period such as the one seen from Feb 15-20, 1994....the details remain to be seen and they matter a lot.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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The 00z Feb 1st guidance continued to show two potential major winter storms for the region...the first one becoming very likely on February 5th. The 00z ensmeble guidance across all model was a bit colder and further south suggesting a snowier scenario...and less ice...however, given we are still about 4 days out, this has time to change yet again. (see running Feb 5th thread)

 

 

The 2nd potential larger scale winter storm still is strong on ensemble guidance for Feb 8-9. The latest ECMWF ensemble mean tracks a significant system into the Ohio Valley with secondary coastal cyclogenesis near the Delmarva. There was considerable spread amongst the members which is to be expected atthis time range.

 

 

Near the end of the period covered in this thread, the 00z guidance has continued a subtle shift seen the last couple cycles toward a -NAO/-PNA/-WPO pattern...the -NAO being the more subtle shift. If the -NAO can become a more significant feature in this pattern heading into middle February, then the outlook would continue to be a cold/snowy outlook for New England...such similar patterns of -WPO/-PNA/-NAO occured in February 1969, early February 1979, and late February 1956.

 

A stronger positive NAO could result in a milder period such as the one seen from Feb 15-20, 1994....the details remain to be seen and they matter a lot.

holy grail 69 year on the table, geezus

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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I am of the opinion we may have to watch the Monday system esp to the south of the Massachusetts turnpike for an inch or 2. it seems like there is just enough of a buckle and fronto forcing to get a band decently far north

Euro came back North a bit, agree, could be a nice little pre for the main event Wed

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