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A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Some good analogs for the Feb 5th system are Feb 16-17, 1993 and Feb 22, 1994. The former had quite a bit of FZRA at ORH after 5 inches of snow...I remember that one well. There was an immovable glacier on the ground after that one.

 

021618.gif

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thomasnh

thomasnh

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Not to be a debbie downer, though I could see the Wed System cutting to our west bringing heavy FZR to rain to everyone north of the pike to CNE and really being a significant ice storm to NNE similar to what happened right before christmas, except hitting NVT, NNH, and ME to the Canadian Border.  Then Sat being a storm for the SNE, and MA before going out to sea.  Meaning that areas North of the Pike may not see any snow similar to what happened this past week.  Not that it may happen though very well could.  I just wish that we weren't 134 hours out for wed and about 182 hours out for the Feb 8th storm with about 20 more model runs for the wed storm and 32 models runs for the Feb 8th storm.

Will am I being paranoid?

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dendrite

dendrite

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Not to be a debbie downer, though I could see the Wed System cutting to our west bringing heavy FZR to rain to everyone north of the pike to CNE and really being a significant ice storm to NNE similar to what happened right before christmas, except hitting NVT, NNH, and ME to the Canadian Border.  Then Sat being a storm for the SNE, and MA before going out to sea.  Meaning that areas North of the Pike may not see any snow similar to what happened this past week.  Not that it may happen though very well could.  I just wish that we weren't 134 hours out for wed and about 182 hours out for the Feb 8th storm with about 20 more model runs for the wed storm and 32 models runs for the Feb 8th storm.

Will am I being paranoid?

We're not going snowless from this.
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ono

ono

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Not to be a debbie downer, though I could see the Wed System cutting to our west bringing heavy FZR to rain to everyone north of the pike to CNE and really being a significant ice storm to NNE similar to what happened right before christmas, except hitting NVT, NNH, and ME to the Canadian Border.  Then Sat being a storm for the SNE, and MA before going out to sea.  Meaning that areas North of the Pike may not see any snow similar to what happened this past week.  Not that it may happen though very well could.  I just wish that we weren't 134 hours out for wed and about 182 hours out for the Feb 8th storm with about 20 more model runs for the wed storm and 32 models runs for the Feb 8th storm.

Will am I being paranoid?

 

Without any real analysis to back up anything... this is just a "what if the forecasters go wrong?" It can happen, chances are it won't.  No offense, but it's just a waste of a post- it's like people need to be constantly reassured about their backyard weather from people who know more than them. Why bother? What will happen, will happen.  It's weather- and we don't live in San Diego.  

 

Why not just wait for the next professional met AFD reasserting the science/interpretation?  

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

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Without any real analysis to back up anything... this is just a "what if the forecasters go wrong?" It can happen, chances are it won't. No offense, but it's just a waste of a post- it's like people need to be constantly reassured about their backyard weather from people who know more than them. Why bother? What will happen, will happen. It's weather- and we don't live in San Diego.

Why not just wait for the next professional met AFD reasserting the science/interpretation?

its been a rough run for many folks this past month from s of the pike in the west to many areas in cne and esp nne. his thoughts are not super crazy with the way things have often gone so far this winter.....however the pattern going forward is different and generally better i think for cne and nne
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weathafella

weathafella

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ens are a bit south of the op and have a flatter appearance.

Op and ensembles snow in sne 2/3, all of ne 2/5 with the obvious issues the further south one goes, and again 2/9. Looks like the cold relaxes mid month in February but that would be white a run for the 2/3-10 period for many.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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The ECMWF and its ensembles have come back a bit further southeast overnight in their 00z run concerning the 2/5 storm. This would increase the snow amounts and make significant icing less of a threat. We expected some shifts each run at this time range and we are seeing them. Most of the 00z suite came in a bit less amplified with this storm threat, though the GFS came back in more amplified on its 06z run.

 

Given the system is still 5 days away, we can expect further oscillations in guidance over the next couple of runs before we see some tightening of the model consensus which is already pretty good for beeing at D5.

 

 

All model guidance continued to indicate another large storm system coming out of the southeast US around Feb 8-9.

 

 

 

 

The biggest wrench in the equation last night concerns the Feb 3rd storm where the OP ECMWF brings significant snow into New England (roughly 2-5"). Given that the 2/3 system is only 84 hours out and most skilled operational model shows it, one has to take the threat somewhat seriously. But looking closer, the ECMWF ensembles are noticeably southeast of the OP run, though they still scrape the region with some light snow, but not the plowable storm that the OP has. In addition, the other multi-model ensemble suite does not support the 2/3 threat being a significant factor up in New England. I still think this is a low probability threat and the Euro likely had a bit of a "burp" run concerning it. The areas at highest risk would be the south coast and the Cape.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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That Feb 8-10 system on the GFS and GGEM looks almost identical in development to the one progged for next week... I can't see the ECM that far out or with any detail at all, so can't comment on that. 

 

Both systems on those models have a low ejecting out of roughly eastern Texas, heading towards western New York state, only to try and redevelop further east off the coast. 

 

The GGEM is the most useless model of the three, but it shows similar to the GFS...actually a better solution for most on the Feb 8-9 system as the GFS is more amped and runs the low right through New England (though its after truncation and a ways out).

 

Very interesting though to see the two progged systems develop in an almost identical way, primary heading towards NY State, then secondary forming and moving northeast.

 

Next Week's threat:

 

f132.gif

 

 

Then this is the Feb 9 threat... almost identical.

 

f228.gif

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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That Feb 8-10 system on the GFS and GGEM looks almost identical in development to the one progged for next week... I can't see the ECM that far out or with any detail at all, so can't comment on that. 

 

Both systems on those models have a low ejecting out of roughly eastern Texas, heading towards western New York state, only to try and redevelop further east off the coast. 

 

The GGEM is the most useless model of the three, but it shows similar to the GFS...actually a better solution for most on the Feb 8-9 system as the GFS is more amped and runs the low right through New England (though its after truncation and a ways out).

 

Very interesting though to see the two progged systems develop in an almost identical way, primary heading towards NY State, then secondary forming and moving northeast.

 

Next Week's threat:

 

 

 

 

Then this is the Feb 9 threat... almost identical.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The ECMWF and its ensmebles are significantly further east than the GFS/GEFS regarding Feb 8-9...none of the guidance has a ton of skill at this range, though the EC ensmebles are the highest of the bunch. I'd expect that one to shift around quite a bit.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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The ECMWF and its ensmebles are significantly further east than the GFS/GEFS regarding Feb 8-9...none of the guidance has a ton of skill at this range, though the EC ensmebles are the highest of the bunch. I'd expect that one to shift around quite a bit.

 

Yeah of course... I just found it interesting that both the GFS and GGEM developed the two systems almost identically with the primary heading towards western NY state and secondary development.  Can't see the ECM though, so can't comment on it. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I think the GFS and NAM are up to their silly games with the February 3rd storm.  I think this Monday's storm comes much further north than what the American Models are showing currently.  Front won't move that far south in my opinion.  EURO shows this well currently.

Euro ens were surprisingly robust in their QPF fields. Interesting battle

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

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I think the GFS and NAM are up to their silly games with the February 3rd storm.  I think this Monday's storm comes much further north than what the American Models are showing currently.  Front won't move that far south in my opinion.  EURO shows this well currently.

Cool.  The more rain, the better.

I love rain.

...scientifically speaking that is.

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dendrite

dendrite

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I think the GFS and NAM are up to their silly games with the February 3rd storm. I think this Monday's storm comes much further north than what the American Models are showing currently. Front won't move that far south in my opinion. EURO shows this well currently.

I'm shocked you would feel this way. Shocked I tell you.
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