A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

[powderfreak]

Man I'm worried.

Meh if it happens, it happens. It wouldn't be 2013-2014 without a full melt out in a winter month, haha.

[moneypitmike]

Man I'm worried.

 

May as well fire up the lawn thread, Kevin.

[Ginx snewx]

so let me get this straight, Kevin is melting a glacial snowpack, (which gets added to) based on a 35-38 degree day at the end of the Euro ens run, cool, lock that up. Geezus

 

[Damage In Tolland]

so let me get this straight, Kevin is melting a glacial snowpack, (which gets added to) based on a 35-38 degree day at the end of the Euro ens run, cool, lock that up. Geezus

Stephen..the Euro ens/GEFS and GGEM ens don't look pretty. All i said is I'm worried

[Ginx snewx]

Stephen..the Euro ens/GEFS and GGEM ens don't look pretty. All i said is I'm worried

Kephin, they look normal to me.  41/29 is average

[CoastalWx]

Kephin, they look normal to me.  41/29 is average

 

They are above normal and not by only 1-2F.

[Damage In Tolland]

Kephin, they look normal to me.  41/29 is average

They are a torch..Absolute torch

[Allsnow]

I don't like the vortex being molded over the GOA, we could be in trouble

[N. OF PIKE]

Kephin, they look normal to me. 41/29 is average

Have u ever seen them above normal

[Ginx snewx]

They are a torch..Absolute torch

Guinness in the AM is not good for marathon training. Normal is the new torch, cripes everyone of them is probably about as normal as it gets.

[Ginx snewx]

Have u ever seen them above normal

what does this mean?

[Ginx snewx]

They are above normal and not by only 1-2F.

guess the above linked Ens temp depiction is wrong, sorry , please post a map that shows what you are saying it would help. TIA

[Ginx snewx]

Gridded GFS OP data is not torchy.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbdl

[CoastalWx]

guess the above linked Ens temp depiction is wrong, sorry , please post a map that shows what you are saying it would help. TIA

 

I'm looking at the overall pattern 850 and srfc temps...they are most certainly above. However it's not a full out blowtorch yet.

There is too much volatility and day to day changes so I'm not going to sweat it yet.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm looking at the overall pattern 850 and srfc temps...they are most certainly above. However it's not a full out blowtorch yet.

There is too much volatility and day to day changes so I'm not going to sweat it yet.

I expect a thaw just responded to Kevins melting snow to the NH Mountains worry, LOL. Reload for Morch?

[N. OF PIKE]

I don't like the vortex being molded over the GOA, we could be in trouble

Morch

[HoarfrostHubb]

First reference I have heard to Pineapple Express this morning on one of the AM wx reports

[Ginx snewx]

First reference I have heard to Pineapple Express this morning on one of the AM wx reports

Yea it was all over yesterday, posted some pics from the West Mountain cams, looks like things turn around for them, I expect it to get real active precip wise around here too.

[Ginx snewx]

Morch

Debra, how do you see your ten days of boring panning out?

[Ginx snewx]

Cold is not done yet.

[ORH_wxman]

I moved the California drought discussion to banter thread...lets keep this one on topic about our potential through 2/15.

[weathafella]

Man I'm worried.

Kevin, by late February anyone's pack is in trouble unless you have feet. Take a period of above normal temps and it won't survive. Winter nearing the end then so embrace the next chances when the pattern reloads around 3/1 IMHO.

[dendrite]

guess the above linked Ens temp depiction is wrong, sorry , please post a map that shows what you are saying it would help. TIA

Those are mean 12z and 00z temps. We cool quite a bit from 18z to 00z this time of year on a daily basis.

[moneypitmike]

Pack destroying rainer on the GFS.

[CT Rain]

Pack destroying rainer on the GFS.

 

Your posts match your avatar perfectly! PF special at least.

 

That is a hideous op GFS run. Torch, cutters, ugly.

 

I'm almost ready to say on to severe season!

[Ginx snewx]

Euro has been consistent, will be an interesting run. GFS still looks screwy

[Ginx snewx]

Those are mean 12z and 00z temps. We cool quite a bit from 18z to 00z this time of year on a daily basis.

Would be nice if you threw out some numbers you are seeing.

[dendrite]

Would be nice if you threw out some numbers you are seeing.

Well I don't think mean 2m temps really matter in the LR...especially on the ens.

[Ginx snewx]

Well I don't think mean 2m temps really matter in the LR...especially on the ens.

Ok

[dendrite]

Ok

If you want numbers though my maps pretty much have means in the 30s and 40s at 2m in the extended at 18Z.