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A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Is euro + cmc the new double rule...lol.

I know mets and forecasters wont be always spot on, frankly the guys on here often are. But DT, except this past swfe event, has been pretty bad this winter imo.

 

I don't think social media is doing him any favors... the fact that he makes posts about every single model run that brings snow to the east coast, all winter long, really makes it seem like he has no clue.  I know they aren't "forecasts" but just posts on verbatim model runs usually, but its hard for people to differentiate between regurgiating a verbatim model run, and an actual forecast.  Heck plenty of people on this board get confused if someone mentions a model run, that must mean they think it'll happen.  If the Euro or GFS or CMC show some sort of snow event, DT will make some post about it whether or not he thinks it'll happen... there's this rush to be the first to call for a storm these days, especially among the chest-thumping private weather sector, and the downfall of that is that you often look like an idiot on the off-chance that you actually nail one 7-10 days out.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

What models?

 

I should clarify my statement and say model as  the Euro only has QPF reaching southern VT/NH and coastal ME (for the most part). NNE would have to wait for a weaker northern stream low on the 15th (NNE meaning my neck of the woods through northern NH and interior ME.

 

I just saw the 18z GFS, which certainly looks better than the Euro for this area, but the storm doesn't really begin to deepen until it it reaches the Gulf of Maine, before moving into Canada. (The GFS is then a little slower with the northern stream low in its wake but also has it). The curious thing I am wondering about when it comes to the GFS is the energy that would spawn a good surface reflection. It doesn't really come together well until after the storm on the 13th is in Canada. You would think, looking at the 500mb relative vorticity, that a low would would spin up off coast on 14th. Unless I am missing something that seems to be a bit of a disconnect there.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

I don't think social media is doing him any favors... the fact that he makes posts about every single model run that brings snow to the east coast, all winter long, really makes it seem like he has no clue.  I know they aren't "forecasts" but just posts on verbatim model runs usually, but its hard for people to differentiate between regurgiating a verbatim model run, and an actual forecast.  Heck plenty of people on this board get confused if someone mentions a model run, that must mean they think it'll happen.  If the Euro or GFS or CMC show some sort of snow event, DT will make some post about it whether or not he thinks it'll happen... there's this rush to be the first to call for a storm these days, especially among the chest-thumping private weather sector, and the downfall of that is that you often look like an idiot on the off-chance that you actually nail one 7-10 days out.

 

I can differentiate between model commenting and actual forecasts. the problem with him this year has been his forecasts. he was pretty good with the swfe event, his calls for NAO have been bad, then his forecasts or "thoughts" about upcoming patterns seem like he is butt humping euro ens. he was really bad with the Jan 2/3 system, leading up to it he was all over the place with it. the little norlun event was a head scratcher. he has called for a boring relaxed pattern after the swfe event which on paper looks like he is right, but most of us know its not boring.... there have been and continue to be chances in the pipeline, he called for nada.

 

he knows his stuff, any non troll will admit that. we have been through this before though. he gets too caught up with personal attacks, seems pretty stubborn...... and I really believe those things can affect his forecasts at times.

 

there are winters, and summers (had a great forecast on Sandy), that he is great to follow. but no matter what, I follow his thoughts/forecasts because he knows his stuff and one can learn quite a bit from him.

 

anyway, dont want to derail this thread. move this mods to banter if necessary.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
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But do you believe it, as a meteorologist?  I think you are jaded from this winter...and your comment is most surely an overreaction on one or two model runs 6 or 7 days out.

 

You should be triple bunned.

 

Well we had a good storm on the 5th so I am definitely not as jaded that is for sure. It just appeared to be going back to what we have seen before that storm. Yes I deserve a few buns for that, your are right. As a meteorologist and taking off the emotional weenie hat I do see some issues with the 18z GFS run for that time frame. In particular as mentioned above, it seems to spawn the low too quickly before the real energy arrives.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Absolute horrific looking pattern past the 20th. it's going to wipe out the pack I'm afraid

 

Well we have a few chances between now and then so it will be potentially active as we surmised. After that, still a bit up in the air..but the thaw potential is gaining more ground. Euro ensembles did cool off a tick.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Yup...plenty of juicy solutions for NNE too so the VTers need to back away from the edge of the 4k picnic tables for now.

Hey don't bring my picnic tables into this, haha.

Eyewall, remember you can only make posts about models that bring snow to the area. Be more like James in Cape Cod where every wave will morph into the next great blizzard.

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