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A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yes we do.  What might slow it down?  It seems like GYX has something to say about that.  What should we be watching for?  Will some ridging in the Davis Straight be sufficient or will something need to be happening to our ene to slow the flow.  It will be interesting to see if that ridging starts to develop over the next few days.

 

TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GEFS AND ECMWF EPS SHOW SOME

SIGNS OF RIDGING DEVELOPING THRU DAVIS STRAIT. AS A RESULT

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING LOW PRES INVOF NEW ENGLAND IN THE

MEAN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD

ALOFT THIS MAKES SENSE...AS RIDGING TO THE E WOULD SLOW DOWN THE

SRN STREAM ENOUGH FOR INTERACTION WITH ITS NRN COUNTERPART. THIS

FORECAST CONTAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...BUT GENERAL

AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES

SUPPORTS LIKELY POP BY DAY 7. WHETHER THIS TRENDS TOWARDS A TROF

PASSAGE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

 

Well yesterday I stated it's not easy when a storm is involved in the Plains. It's still possible...but it becomes complicated now.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Yes we do.  What might slow it down?  It seems like GYX has something to say about that.  What should we be watching for?  Will some ridging in the Davis Straight be sufficient or will something need to be happening to our ene to slow the flow.  It will be interesting to see if that ridging starts to develop over the next few days.

 

TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GEFS AND ECMWF EPS SHOW SOME

SIGNS OF RIDGING DEVELOPING THRU DAVIS STRAIT. AS A RESULT

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING LOW PRES INVOF NEW ENGLAND IN THE

MEAN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD

ALOFT THIS MAKES SENSE...AS RIDGING TO THE E WOULD SLOW DOWN THE

SRN STREAM ENOUGH FOR INTERACTION WITH ITS NRN COUNTERPART. THIS

FORECAST CONTAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...BUT GENERAL

AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES

SUPPORTS LIKELY POP BY DAY 7. WHETHER THIS TRENDS TOWARDS A TROF

PASSAGE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

 

2 things can "slow" it down.  One would be any type of blocking(-NAO) and the other would be upstream ridging out West.  We are still out in la-la land on the models so there really is not much to do other than watch any changes/trends on the models.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

worrisome given how this weekend pooped the sheets...persistence?  today's 12z global suite should give a good clue as to what direction this is headed in.

 

If you are talking about the VD "system", I will disagree whole-heartedly as we are 7 days out.  You could make this statement 3-4 days out but not at 7.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Bob, its just a hunch. I'm not basing it off of anything, and I'm not b*tching.

Would I be surprised if I'm wrong, no.

Piss poor wording than. Your 1st sentence should be a such.

 

I had have a feeling that Feb was is going to really slow down after that this super swfe.

 

 

You see how that comes off differently?

 

And as the Icyberg above said, provide some logic/reasoning behind why you feel this way.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Piss poor wording than. Your 1st sentence should be a such.

 

 

You see how that comes off differently?

 

And as the Icyberg above said, provide some logic/reasoning behind why you feel this way.

No, its the correct wording because I was harkening back to my mind set immediately following the Wednesday event.

 

As for iceyberg, keep out of it.

You're not a mod.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I read that.

Very illuminating, albeit concise.

Wave over the planes acts as a dual deterrent by warming the mid levels, and assuming the role of kicker.

Never good to have warm air advection ahead of any low moving up from the south lol. The GEFS definitely had that srn system a little more concise as compared to the op run. It has a couple of days to work itself out, but obviously wise to have a few yellow flags up with this.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

Never good to have warm air advection ahead of any low moving up from the south lol. The GEFS definitely had that srn system a little more concise as compared to the op run. It has a couple of days to work itself out, but obviously wise to have a few yellow flags to go with this.

Ya tbh the future (next ten days) looks boring

. That vday system looks like if it were to amp up enough to reach sne , it would be mild. It had a look of ....meh temps for most. The end of Feb is up for grabs with March, depending on any blocking and of course the persistence of any +EPO or not.

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jaf

jaf

Posted
Posted

Euro manages to thread the needle for a moderate snow event in SNE next week on the 13th. Still a pretty precarious look, but worth keeping an eye on.

 

Does it clip SNE after hitting the Mid-Atl hard?

 
** ALERT ** 12Z EURO & CMC HOLD COURSE !! .. Hammers Middle Atlantic region with 12" + snow for 5th run in a row

WOOF

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Neblizzard

Neblizzard

Posted
Posted

Euro manages to thread the needle for a moderate snow event in SNE next week on the 13th. Still a pretty precarious look, but worth keeping an eye on.

The set up looks very fragile to me. The flow is progressive off the pacific. Is there any hint of a Davis Straights block on this run ?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Ya tbh the future (next ten days) looks boring

. That vday system looks like if it were to amp up enough to reach sne , it would be mild. It had a look of ....meh temps for most. The end of Feb is up for grabs with March, depending on any blocking and of course the persistence of any +EPO or not.

Well kind of early. Up until today I was intrigued with the pattern. It's never wise to have one run change the outlook so we will wait and see how it shakes out over the next week. It's certainly not unprecedented to have a quiet stretch.

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