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A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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I usually like to look more at the source region for that kind of thing, but yeah....the near shore waters usually are a little colder. Ironically, the waters aren't really all that cold as you would think, thanks to the past few years of warmth. 

Yea, the continential shelf isn't a good indicator because its pretty shallow, which means that it will be cooler because its more malleable.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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The GEFS are in good agreement for a significant storm system coming out of the south...however the timing has some spread to it.

 

 

f132.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interestingly, the GEFS also had a few members try and ramp up the system before this around Feb 3...but most of them were too far southeast or non-existant. Still can't rule out a lighter event on the 3rd-4th though but right now it seems to be low probability.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Euro with a S Coast scrape for Monday.

Thought the RH field looked ok on the PSU images.  It's like there is just enough of a kink in the heights between the s/w's rotating around up in Canada that it may just be enough to clip southern areas.

 

I made a post yesterday AM about this possibility.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42579-february-2014-pattern-discussion-thread/?p=2698930

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Euro likes the weekend of 2/7-9. Cold too !

 

 

This system has some support from both analogs and ensembles, so it will definitely be something to watch.

 

 

The OP Euro for the Feb 5th system is now on the northwest side of the multi-model envelope. Thus, it is a good run to illustrate the icing threat should the storm amplify further west. The model run shows significant icing in interior CT, MA and S NH/S VT after an initial burst of snow.

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

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Looks like there is the potential for 3 seperate events during the time frame outlined in the title of this thread.  

 

The first is mostly a miss except for maybe the South Coast/Cape & Islands and that occurs on Monday the 3rd.

 

Wednesday will feature what appears to be a much more significant storm system that could potentially impact all of New England.  This system has been looming in the ensemble guidance for quite some time now.  If things fall the right way those locations that can stay all snow could be in for a good dumping.  We will just have to watch as warm air tries to advect in a few km above our heads.

 

Then again the following Saturday the 9th the guidance is advertising another significant system that looks to potentially pass in a more favorable location for regionwide snows (but seeing as it is 10 days away; this is probably a dumb statement to make).  But right now I think I like this Saturday potential better than the mid-week storm.  And the mid-week storm does have some pretty good potential.

 

I know that I for one am becoming a bit more excited about some wintry potential around these parts.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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The Euro ensembles are more robust with the westward track of the Feb 5th threat...however, there is still 5-6 days to go and the spread is enough at this range to make a difference between mostly snow and only smaller amounts of snow with signigicant ice in the interior and rain on the coast.

 

 

The ensmebles are also very bullish on the Feb 8-9th threat...esp given the time range. We will certainly have to follow those prospects as we move closer.

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Benchmarkbuoy

Benchmarkbuoy

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Is a SWFE just another word for "cutter light" or is there something that differentiates it from a low that tracks over western ny or the lakes?  The outcome for many is much more favorable for many on the "SWFE" events mainly because of the track of the low being not a true cutter.  Just wondering because I see the term on here a lot and I get the idea behind it and what it produces just wondering about the origins of the name and why it is not a cutter.  Thanks

 

p.s  this board is awesome! I am mostly a lurker and have moved in and out of the area but now live in West Concord, MA and work out in Fort Devens so a lot of the information is super useful and interesting to me.

 

John

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

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Is a SWFE just another word for "cutter light" or is there something that differentiates it from a low that tracks over western ny or the lakes?  The outcome for many is much more favorable for many on the "SWFE" events mainly because of the track of the low being not a true cutter.  Just wondering because I see the term on here a lot and I get the idea behind it and what it produces just wondering about the origins of the name and why it is not a cutter.  Thanks

 

p.s  this board is awesome! I am mostly a lurker and have moved in and out of the area but now live in West Concord, MA and work out in Fort Devens so a lot of the information is super useful and interesting to me.

 

John

It's the sw flow aloft regarding the wind direction. Normal cutters do not form a secondary off the coast south of SNE. Without that secondary we are too mild to snow.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Just to clarify SWFE = Miller B? No?

 

I don't think so.  Miller B is more a redeveloping system where the ocean storm becomes the primary low pressure system, right?  In a SWFE the upper level lows are well west of the area...while in a Miller B, the mid-level lows usually are also off the coast or close to it. 

 

To me they are two very different beasts. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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The Euro ensembles are more robust with the westward track of the Feb 5th threat...however, there is still 5-6 days to go and the spread is enough at this range to make a difference between mostly snow and only smaller amounts of snow with signigicant ice in the interior and rain on the coast.

 

 

The ensmebles are also very bullish on the Feb 8-9th threat...esp given the time range. We will certainly have to follow those prospects as we move closer.

 

Yeah I just noticed on the 18z GEFS that there's pretty darn good consensus in some sort of event around that time frame...especially for a 250 hour prog.

 

This is valid Feb 8th... there are some pretty big solutions in there.

 

f240.gif

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ice1972

ice1972

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I don't think a swfe has to necessarily be associated with significant cyclogenesis. Broadly speaking, I would think it can refer to any southwest–northeast WAA-induced stratiform precip.

 

I just wanted a clarification cuz sbos_wx mentioned secondary low development which to me equates to a Miller B.....admittedly my understanding of this stuff is pedestrian but I've been around long enough to know the basics.....to me a SWFE is associated with massive overrunning snows.....what happens after the initial thump could be anything depending on track and available cold air mass....

 

I had always associated a classic Miller B with the classic NE snow storms.....not a fan of the Miller A's......

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Man loop the GEFS ensemble package and its like every 3-5 days a new system develops in eastern Texas and gets ejected up the east coast, some more inland, some off the coast...but its impressive in how the ensemble members themselves have all the similar timing.  Probably a pretty high confidence forecast in timing at least for that far of lead time.  Looks good with the mean trough axis situated more in the center of the country for these systems, allowing some of us northerners to potentially get in on the fun this time around. 

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ice1972

ice1972

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I don't think so.  Miller B is more a redeveloping system where the ocean storm becomes the primary low pressure system, right?  In a SWFE the upper level lows are well west of the area...while in a Miller B, the mid-level lows usually are also off the coast or close to it. 

 

To me they are two very different beasts. 

 

Yes thats what I had always thought too.....I like to learn since my training is not met so I though I would ask in the lull before the 0z....thanks....Miller B's to me are significant snowstorms in ways a SWFE can not be....even though SWFE can thump pretty good....

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dendrite

dendrite

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SWFE is just a term made up by Will and Ek where we have WAA aloft via SW flow which usually occurs out ahead of a primary low moving NE toward the OH Valley/Great Lakes. In other words, it's just overrunning precip or isentropic lift. If the SFC/925 low redevelops near the coast it's still essentially a SWFE since the mid levels are relatively warm. If we develop the mid-level system in time to our south then it starts taking on more classic Miller-B characteristics.

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