A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

[ctsnowstorm628]

Slowly as well

Yeah, that's probably a product of the varying solutions within the EPS.

 

Like Tip was saying, any piece of guidance that gets this right a week out is lucky.

[Ginx snewx]

slow mover huge system on all models details to be ironed out

[CoastalWx]

That's a weird track, probably owing to the spread.  That low in the midwest is going to screw around with this.

[ORH_wxman]

That's a weird track, probably owing to the spread.  That low in the midwest is going to screw around with this.

 

Yeah I am skeptical of a due north track like that in this pattern though it's not impossible. You'd need some sort of convoluted partial phase to get that.

 

I think we should remind everyone that the Feb 8-9 threat looked quite strong on the ensembles as well at this point, but we've seen how the detail of energy getting folded underneath the WPO ridge has taken that system nearly off the table now.

[dryslot]

That's a weird track, probably owing to the spread.  That low in the midwest is going to screw around with this.

 

12z GGEM was a good example of what you mentioned earlier with the low coming out of the midwest, It booted the 1st system out and it amplified into a cutter on the 15th

[Ginx snewx]

12z GGEM was a good example of what you mentioned earlier with the low coming out of the midwest, It booted the 1st system out and it amplified into a cutter on the 15th

GGEM  has a coastal on the 13th/14th though

 

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=204&fixhh=1&hh=168

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=180

[codfishsnowman]

Yeah I am skeptical of a due north track like that in this pattern though it's not impossible. You'd need some sort of convoluted partial phase to get that.

I think we should remind everyone that the Feb 8-9 threat looked quite strong on the ensembles as well at this point, but we've seen how the detail of energy getting folded underneath the WPO ridge has taken that system nearly off the table now.

exactly!! it looked great and had a huge signal for days and if one were to read the nyc thread it was coming like the irs when someone doesnt pay his or her taxes.

[Ginx snewx]

exactly!! it looked great and had a huge signal for days and if one were to read the nyc thread it was coming like the irs when someone doesnt pay his or her taxes.

I do not see the similarities at all. The weekend storm modeling was spotty and probably only a day of any real threat. The VD period has been consistently progged on ENS with growing support from Ops and other models. Does not mean it will occur just has better support. Fantasy storms happen all the time, the thing to look for is ENS support and eventually Op support, plenty of time for phail but right now, nice look, details to follow.

[dryslot]

I do not see the similarities at all. The weekend storm modeling was spotty and probably only a day of any real threat. The VD period has been consistently progged on ENS with growing support from Ops and other models. Does not mean it will occur just has better support. Fantasy storms happen all the time, the thing to look for is ENS support and eventually Op support, plenty of time for phail but right now, nice look, details to follow.

 

Other then a couple real amped up weenie runs, This weekend one had many more meh runs then hits

[CoastalWx]

Should be a rather chilly stretch through next week. Pretty much like a 20-30F high temp overall with maybe Monday as the coldest day. Not brutal arctic cold, but a nice wintry feel.

[ORH_wxman]

I disagree about the weekend threat being totally meh at this timeframe. Go read back earlier in this thread around Feb 2nd. It had pretty good support for being 7 days out. The Feb 13-14 threat does not seem any "better" in terms of ensemble support.

 

I do think it is likely that some sort of system will be nearby on Feb 13-14, but I won't use the fact that Feb 8-9 looked unsupported as a reason to bolster the Feb 13-14 confidence. Most of the time when support is fairly strong at 7 days, a system will happen...but Feb 8-9 is just a good example of why these are not layups every time.

[Typhoon Tip]

18z NAM is somewhat more amped with the N stream S/W entering the upper OV at 57 hours compared to the last cycle... 

 

 

Seriously though ... should that persist and come in much stronger than there's likely to be an NJ model low scooting out underneath us and that might atone for a purer N/S progressive light to moderate event.  Just a thought based upon the imagination of the NAM

[Sn0waddict]

18z NAM is somewhat more amped with the N stream S/W entering the upper OV at 57 hours compared to the last cycle... 

 

 

Seriously though ... should that persist and come in much stronger than there's likely to be an NJ model low scooting out underneath us and that might atone for a purer N/S progressive light to moderate event.  Just a thought based upon the imagination of the NAM

You mean the NAM that was projecting me to get 0 inches of snow from the last storm, when I actually got 7+? Eh I wouldn't put too much thought into it at this juncture.

[Typhoon Tip]

You mean the NAM that was projecting me to get 0 inches of snow from the last storm, when I actually got 7+? Eh I wouldn't put too much thought into it at this juncture.

 

Hence the   

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I disagree about the weekend threat being totally meh at this timeframe. Go read back earlier in this thread around Feb 2nd. It had pretty good support for being 7 days out. The Feb 13-14 threat does not seem any "better" in terms of ensemble support.

 

I do think it is likely that some sort of system will be nearby on Feb 13-14, but I won't use the fact that Feb 8-9 looked unsupported as a reason to bolster the Feb 13-14 confidence. Most of the time when support is fairly strong at 7 days, a system will happen...but Feb 8-9 is just a good example of why these are not layups every time.

 

I'm glad you're the one saying these things.  Because I 100% agree.

 

Models have had no consistency with particular storms - including ensembles all winter.  This VD thing is very likely to be no different.

[powderfreak]

I disagree about the weekend threat being totally meh at this timeframe. Go read back earlier in this thread around Feb 2nd. It had pretty good support for being 7 days out. The Feb 13-14 threat does not seem any "better" in terms of ensemble support.

 

I do think it is likely that some sort of system will be nearby on Feb 13-14, but I won't use the fact that Feb 8-9 looked unsupported as a reason to bolster the Feb 13-14 confidence. Most of the time when support is fairly strong at 7 days, a system will happen...but Feb 8-9 is just a good example of why these are not layups every time.

 

Good post.  The weekend threat looked pretty darn good for a couple days...illiciting all the comments about a very epic 10 day stretch coming up, feet and feet of snow, etc.  People were feeling that one as an almost lock. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Good post.  The weekend threat looked pretty darn good for a couple days...illiciting all the comments about a very epic 10 day stretch coming up, feet and feet of snow, etc.  People were feeling that one as an almost lock. 

I don't think anyone was treating it as a lock....I mean, I can only speak for myself, but I'm inherently biased against major threats progged to occur within a week of another major event.

IOW, I'll get against two 1'+ snowfalls in that rapid of succession each and every time, and be right the vast majority of the time.

I mean...you have to almost be waiting for "the other shoe to drop" regarding the follow up, especially in a season that has tended to deconstruct major potential at least excuse imaginable...at least on a macro scale....

[N. OF PIKE]

Good post. The weekend threat looked pretty darn good for a couple days...illiciting all the comments about a very epic 10 day stretch coming up, feet and feet of snow, etc. People were feeling that one as an almost lock.

I honestly don't think anyone was feeling that as an almost lock, not something more than 6 days out and not something w that complicated a set up. Hopeful to varying degrees but not even rev was lockin that up.

[Ginx snewx]

I honestly don't think anyone was feeling that as an almost lock, not something more than 6 days out and not something w that complicated a set up. Hopeful to varying degrees but not even rev was lockin that up.

I have no idea what he was talking about either. Great period with a lot of threats is what almost everybody saw. I would hit the 18Z GFS VD ish setup day and night.

[CoastalWx]

PF for the loss.

[powderfreak]

lol lock it up

[bch2014]

FWIW the 18z GFS was a scraper...

[OceanStWx]

I did a copy and past bc computer was havin issues. THis is from Kevin Duff in general wx thread today.

 

"Don -- I'm not sure if you have seen this from Bill Nichols in the NWS DVN discussion

I was wondering your reactions to his long-range thoughts..."

 

My question is.....does this teleconnect to a trough in the east by mid to late month as wave lengths shorten. My guess is our key question is...."got blocking" otherwise congrats PF 

 

 

Not for you, but for my former office. Bill is a smart guy, really knows his stuff, but occasionally get get a little carried away. I've seen this forecast bust for him badly, just like I've seen him accurately predict seasonal trends.

 

Plus isn't this basically predicting the coming of spring? Humans and NWP can rush its arrival sometimes.

[mahk_webstah]

I really like HPC's low track right onto Cape Cod on Friday.  Looks like a fairly slow mover, but I can't believe a storm with that track would be 1004 sitting on CC.

[weathafella]

I really like HPC's low track right onto Cape Cod on Friday.  Looks like a fairly slow mover, but I can't believe a storm with that track would be 1004 sitting on CC.

Already falling apart subtly in the guidance. This one may go ots but we'll get some overrunning again at some point whch has been prolific at times this year.

[Ginx snewx]

Already falling apart subtly in the guidance. This one may go ots but we'll get some overrunning again at some point whch has been prolific at times this year.

?? 4-10" front end dump on the Euro, euro ens with a Delmarva to GOM with a good track 

[ORH_wxman]

?? 4-10" front end dump on the Euro, euro ens with a Delmarva to GOM with a good track 

 

 

The signal is less robust than the past two runs. Might just be a blip, but it certainly less impressive than yesterday. It's still there mind you...and still pretty defined, but just not quite as good as yesterday

[Baroclinic Zone]

I think people need to keep in the back of their heads that we have an overall progressive pattern.

[mahk_webstah]

I think people need to keep in the back of their heads that we have an overall progressive pattern.

Yes we do.  What might slow it down?  It seems like GYX has something to say about that.  What should we be watching for?  Will some ridging in the Davis Straight be sufficient or will something need to be happening to our ene to slow the flow.  It will be interesting to see if that ridging starts to develop over the next few days.

 

TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GEFS AND ECMWF EPS SHOW SOME

SIGNS OF RIDGING DEVELOPING THRU DAVIS STRAIT. AS A RESULT

ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS FAVORING LOW PRES INVOF NEW ENGLAND IN THE

MEAN BY LATE IN THE WEEK. GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE HEIGHT FIELD

ALOFT THIS MAKES SENSE...AS RIDGING TO THE E WOULD SLOW DOWN THE

SRN STREAM ENOUGH FOR INTERACTION WITH ITS NRN COUNTERPART. THIS

FORECAST CONTAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE...BUT GENERAL

AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES

SUPPORTS LIKELY POP BY DAY 7. WHETHER THIS TRENDS TOWARDS A TROF

PASSAGE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

[Ji]

The signal is less robust than the past two runs. Might just be a blip, but it certainly less impressive than yesterday. It's still there mind you...and still pretty defined, but just not quite as good as yesterday

which event are you talking about? The feb 12-13?