A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

[ORH_wxman]

the Euro has had flurries or nothing the last couple runs..or at least prior to 00z. It'll now continue to ramp up each run

 

GGEM also has snow

 

It won't be a blockbuster but who cares..We'll add on another light to moderate event.

 

 

Why?

 

There's plenty of reason why it won't with a progressive flow and lack of a big western ridge. We can hope those trend better.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

so much for a technical discussion.

 

timing is off with this one. its trended that way past couple days. any slowing or speeding of waves will fluctuate over the next two days so its not over, but its late in the 3rd qtr and we down by 3 tds now.

 

the 14th/15th time frame still looks interesting though.

[weathafella]

We're in a pattern for potential snow events every. 3-5 days . Can't complain.

[Ginx snewx]

We're in a pattern for potential snow events every. 3-5 days . Can't complain.

The next big dog is a Valentines day massacre coinciding with the Full moon, before that a nice moderate event ends the weeks trifecta. Look out for some mighty cold temps with higher than usual associated 850's, radiation city.

[jamesnichols1989]

Do these Norlun setups sometimes consolidate the energy offshore and spawn a Miller B type system? Vaguely remember 12/26/04 that turned into a Miller B that dropped 15-20" on the north shore.

 

That was actually a full blown miller A snowstorm, came from eastern TX and brought snow all the way to New Orleans, LA.  Gave Brewster, MA 18".  I think this is all or nothing type snowstorm.  We live for the blockbusters, without them we have nothing to look forward to in the future.

[NorEastermass128]

 

I'll wait until the 00z runs tomorrow night before calling this one.  Plenty of chances incoming it seems though!

[weathafella]

That was actually a full blown miller A snowstorm, came from eastern TX and brought snow all the way to New Orleans, LA. Gave Brewster, MA 18". I think this is all or nothing type snowstorm. We live for the blockbusters, without them we have nothing to look forward to in the future.

Sad concept to me.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I actually think this looks like a pretty good threat.  18z NAM ticked back to a "closer" miss with system 1 too.

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ... if you are in this game for bigger events, obviously the 12z Euro (and others for that matter) strapped you to schit stuffing machine, loaded it up with dog doop and hit the start button on you. 

 

It's interesting that every big system of this period of time has pretty much evaporated, while the smaller guy (today) may just turn out to be the big deal. 

 

Things can sometimes come back, tho

[moneypitmike]

We're going to need a few good systems to play out in order for this neck of the woods to finish above average.  The 9" today helped, but we've got a ways to go.

 

22.0/20

[SouthCoastMA]

Signal still there for a moderate event on 2/10..actually looks a bit better than the inverted trough mess of the last few runs.

[NorEastermass128]

Signal still there for a moderate event on 2/10..actually looks a bit better than the inverted trough mess of the last few runs.

Yeah.  It's close to something there.  Get that first batch of energy out of the way quick enough and there could be enough room for this one to blossom.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sundays gonna happen. Moderate hopefully

[ROOSTA]

Sundays gonna happen. Moderate hopefully

I would agree "IF" the evolving UL's supported. As is - there is literally no phasing, weak sauce on vort max. Wait for next Thu/Fri. that IMO is the next possible legit threat for moderate event.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

At least the disappearing trend has stopped. Wouldnt be shocking if we got a little more beef into this as we hone in on it over the weekend.

But I like the v day potential. Keep it moderate and se of the bm 7d out...... Then start throwing weenie solutions d3/4.

[codfishsnowman]

We're going to need a few good systems to play out in order for this neck of the woods to finish above average. The 9" today helped, but we've got a ways to go.same here in dv, to just end up being above normal we need another two feet or so for the season

22.0/20

[jamesnichols1989]

Sad concept to me.

 

Not really, we look forward to the big doozy storms, even when we get the moderate snow events, we know the big one is out there, just a matter of when.  Not a matter of if.  Anyways there is more to life than just the weather of course, so its not like I'm depressed because there is no major storms.  I'm just not as excited.  I find it hard to believe that the models won't bring back the storm idea to the benchmark.  If they weren't showing anything in the 7-10 day range and then showed nothing in the mid range then I wouldn't get my hopes up, but more than likely they will bring back the idea of a major storm system.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'll give you hopers something to grip to with your fingernails ... no, the signal isn't exactly dead.  

 

First of all, the idea of phasing two-streamer has set sail. That should not be relied upon -- it ain't-a happenin'.  The problem is, and the GGEM and Euro were the first to pick up on this, the southern stream is vastly out-pacing (translation velocity) the northern stream, such that very limited or no interaction/subsuming can take place.

 

That said, the southern or northern stream could still do something interesting on their own.  The dynamics of the southern stream are just now being ejected out of that closed gyre out around the Int. date line in the middle of the Pac ocean.  Good luck sampling that proficiently enough..  Should a stronger system arrive through the Pac NW States it will tend to "plow" up an atmospheric bow wave that would roll out ahead of it, and that would tend to feed-back in to a system turning left more once it passed 80W.  It's not on the charts now but I have no difficulty visualizing that correcting that way should a stronger impulse translate the country later in the week.

 

We also don't know exactly what is going to be introduced into the flow once that train-wreck immediately astride the Canadian Rockies gets booted down stream.  That could be a stronger amount of dynamics in the N stream alone, which could/would produce a NJ Model low/open wave cyclogen in the upper MA.  The 18z GFS exemplifies this to more than less degree, even painting a CCB head within a stone through of eastern NE on Monday.  

 

One of those two would appear to be your best hope at this time, with some vastly remoter chance that the southern stream is simply being modeled too fast, and that might allow more stream interaction if that 1 in...oh, a 100 or whatever, took place.  I don't think it is though with very little western ridging; seems fast should prevail.     

[Typhoon Tip]

Not really, we look forward to the big doozy storms, even when we get the moderate snow events, we know the big one is out there, just a matter of when.  Not a matter of if.  Anyways there is more to life than just the weather of course, so its not like I'm depressed because there is no major storms.  I'm just not as excited.  I find it hard to believe that the models won't bring back the storm idea to the benchmark.  If they weren't showing anything in the 7-10 day range and then showed nothing in the mid range then I wouldn't get my hopes up, but more than likely they will bring back the idea of a major storm system.

 

 

Not that you asked... I know Jerry and I think he's more like me, in that we would rather get a season end to end full of nickle and dimers, rather than waiting ...hell, perhaps several years in bad stretches, for that ilk of storm you are referencing.  I think, in fact, most on here would be happier with constant events to monitor.  Turn 'em over every 4 to 5 days for 5-7" a pop, all season long with a couple good to cold shots add to the winter buzz, tend to make up for the snowier years under the bell of the graph, anyway -- I think Will can attest to this?  

 

Anyway, sometimes, yes, you get a snowier than normal year off big bombs -- 1978 for example.  But by and large, stats probably argue you want shot-gun, not rifle play as far as winter events. 

 

Don't get me wrong, the big bombs are a hoot!  But maturity requires a realistic anticipation.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not that you asked... I know Jerry and I think he's more like me, in that we would rather get a season end to end full of nickle and dimers, rather than waiting ...hell, perhaps several years in bad stretches, for that ilk of storm you are referencing.  I think, in fact, most on here would be happier with constant events to monitor.  Turn 'em over every 4 to 5 days for 5-7" a pop, all season long with a couple good cold shots add to the winter buzz, tend to make up for the snowier years under the bell of the graph, anyway -- I think Will can attest to this?  

 

Anyway, sometimes, yes, you get a snowier than normal year off big bombs -- 1978 for example.  But by and large, stats probably argue you want shot-gun, not rifle play as far as winter events. 

I'm the same way. No need for monsters or doozy's. if they come along ..great..but let's snow every other day or every couple of days..just a constant barrage of light to mod events

[J Paul Gordon]

Leaving aside hopes for a monster storm on the weekend-Monday range. What makes it impossible to very unlikely for a 4-8 inch general snowfall for SNE to occur during that time frame at this point? I understand the phasing issues. But either a storm off the Delmarva/NJ moving toward the BM or a good strong clipper moving off the coast south of New England could deliver. Are these out of the picture or so unlikely they are not worth discussing? 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm the same way. No need for monsters or doozy's. if they come along ..great..but let's snow every other day or every couple of days..just a constant barrage of light to mod events

 

We were kind of originally slated to do that during this first two weeks of the month.  Now it seems the Euro is really going out of the way to damp all events -- not sure what's going on with all this system dropage like 75-year old's nuts, but sufficed it is to say ... we were always looking at a la-la range for consistency, which most would admit is not such a hot idea. 

 

That said, I still think there is a shot at a moderate event Sunday night because of reasons said above, so perhaps we are still on track for our turn over assault pattern.  So far here in Ayer, we've had a 2" event, followed by a 9.25" event (today) and we can scare up 4-6" type deal Sunday night I think we are producing here.   

[Typhoon Tip]

Leaving aside hopes for a monster storm on the weekend-Monday range. What makes it impossible to very unlikely for a 4-8 inch general snowfall for SNE to occur during that time frame at this point? I understand the phasing issues. But either a storm off the Delmarva/NJ moving toward the BM or a good strong clipper moving off the coast south of New England could deliver. Are these out of the picture or so unlikely they are not worth discussing? 

 

 

I just explained that!  

 

If some other Met or informed poster has something to add - go, but you can read what I wrote not 2 posts ago. 

[J Paul Gordon]

I just explained that!  

 

If some other Met or informed poster has something to add - go, but you can read what I wrote not 2 posts ago. 

I thought you did,  but I'm not expert enough to be entirely sure I understand! I had to re-translate into something more "simpleton" just to be sure.

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh, I see... well, just keep in mind:

 

there are two jet streams this week that are better defined, and are affecting the U.S.  A northern stream and a southern stream.  These are paralleling one another in a general zone flow characteristics (west to east).   Should an impulse embedded in either stream be sufficiently powerful enough, there could be "some" kind of event Sunday or Monday.  

[Ginx snewx]

Sneaky cold, book it

[Ginx snewx]

Tip Euro has a big storm, right near your favorite holiday.

[SouthCoastMA]

St Valentips Day

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Paging Dr. Phil.

[weathafella]

I'm actually bullish on Sunday/Monday. In another day I can start a thread...after all the juju worked for many today.