A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

[Damage In Tolland]

The ECMWF ensmebles have trended considerably southeast to where now more runs are realtive misses than hits for Feb 9-10. More of an inverted trough look. The GEFS havebeen more bullish.

 

We'll need to start seeing a correction back toward the larger solutions within the next 12-24 hours on the ECWMF suite if we are to gain confidence in this system.

What we may see happen is they correct back to a moderate hit but not to the bomb they had. It seems like we've lost the chance at a blockbuster and now have to start thinking more like a 4-8 or 5-10 type event..which makes more sense given the lack of blocking

[weathafella]

What we may see happen is they correct back to a moderate hit but not to the bomb they had. It seems like we've lost the chance at a blockbuster and now have to start thinking more like a 4-8 or 5-10 type event..which makes more sense given the lack of blocking

I think this is either a monster or nothing. Just my feeling based on nothing. I am discounting the inverted trof looks.

[ORH_wxman]

What we may see happen is they correct back to a moderate hit but not to the bomb they had. It seems like we've lost the chance at a blockbuster and now have to start thinking more like a 4-8 or 5-10 type event..which makes more sense given the lack of blocking

 

 

That is very possible...its also possible we don't get much out of this. I'll prob take a closer look at all the moving pieces later today sometime...but my first glance this morning isn't that insipiring.

[moneypitmike]

Buzz-kill runs overnight regarding Sun-Mon.  Good thing we have today, I guess.

[Damage In Tolland]

Buzz-kill runs overnight regarding Sun-Mon.  Good thing we have today, I guess.

Drink more coffee

[HoarfrostHubb]

Well, my sons bus driver yesterday said 2-3 feet

Good enough for me

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Well, my sons bus driver yesterday said 2-3 feet

Good enough for me

 

I heard that several times in town yesterday.  I have no idea where people are getting this information??

 

The Euro looked like a complete miss for out here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Toast.

 

Once we start hearing about inverted torughs, game over.

 

The middle finger of potential.....

[PWMan]

I heard that several times in town yesterday. I have no idea where people are getting this information??

The Euro looked like a complete miss for out here.

Yeah, the "Another big one coming after this one!" narrative really took a couple days ago and people are just taking it as a given. I think it's based on rhetoric from TWC and other hype-trafficking outlets which continue to spin this as The Most Extreme Polar Vortex Winter Ever.

I agree that the recent odd-looking depictions don't inspire any confidence.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Toast.

Once we start hearing about inverted torughs, game over.

The middle finger of potential.....

I figured this to be the case when I saw that

I give it another 2 days before I throw it in

[Baroclinic Zone]

Wonder if we see that southern s/w scoot offshore fast enough to allow the follow up one to dig and amplify.

[CoastalWx]

GFS has a nice moderate event.

[Damage In Tolland]

GFS has a nice moderate event.

Yup..I really believe that's where we're headed..4-8..or a 5-10 thing

[NorEastermass128]

GFS has a nice moderate event.

Do these Norlun setups sometimes consolidate the energy offshore and spawn a Miller B type system? Vaguely remember 12/26/04 that turned into a Miller B that dropped 15-20" on the north shore.

[CoastalWx]

Do these Norlun setups sometimes consolidate the energy offshore and spawn a Miller B type system? Vaguely remember 12/26/04 that turned into a Miller B that dropped 15-20" on the north shore.

 

They can, but the energy really meed to dig more here.

[Baroclinic Zone]

They can, but the energy really meed to dig more here.

Need to get that lead s/w out of the way faster so we can allow the follow up wave to dig more.  If not the best baroclinic zone will be too far off shore.  Could be Euro bias of holding on to the s/w too long in the southwest, hence the suppressed offshore system.  GFS is not too far off from a moderate event.

[mahk_webstah]

Since I am in NYC today, I am focusing on the next event, when I'll be home.

 

Interesting from the new HPC medium range.  The bolded statements seem in conflict.  What is interesting to me though, is that as the models have backed away from a big storm most of the mets at nws have kept snow chances in the forecast.  I guess it is recognizing the potential in the set up and the fact that models have biases?  Anyhow:

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST WED FEB 05 2014

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 08 2014 - 12Z WED FEB 12 2014

...OVERVIEW...
THE LOWER 48 WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A PACIFIC-INFLUENCED
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS DELIVERING
SOME MUCH-NEEDED PRECIPITATION AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN
ACTIVE...BUT MILDER PATTERN FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

IN THE EAST AND SOUTH...THE FLOW PATTERN TRANSITION--FROM
WEST-TO-EAST--STARTS WITH A COASTAL STORM THAT IS SHAPING UP FOR
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON DAY 4... FROM THE PIEDMONT NORTHWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND.

...PREFERENCES...
THE CURRENT SURFACE AND 500MB GRAPHICS UTILIZED A 70% WEIGHTED
BLEND OF THE 5/00Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEANS
UNTIL DAY 5...TO HANDLE THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OUTCOME ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS ALLOWS FOR A COASTAL LOW TO EXIT THE OUTER
BANKS...THEN RAPIDLY BLOSSOM INTO A BROAD OCCLUSION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND GEFS WERE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SOLUTION...AND I BALANCED ITS MORE NORTHERN-STREAM INFLUENCE BY
DAY 5...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE WRAP-AROUND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INVOF
MAINE-NOVA SCOTIA A BIT LONGER THAN THE ECMWF WOULD INDICATE.

UPSTREAM IN THE WEST AND ROCKIES...THE 5/06Z GEFS MEAN AND ECENS
MEAN REASONABLY HANDLE THE GENERAL 'ZONAL' FLOW PATTERN BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE 5/06Z GFS AND 5/00Z ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC CYCLE WERE IN RATHER DECENT 'SYNCH' WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...THEN WITH THE GRADUAL
MOVEMENT OF A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA. VOJTESAK

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/COASTAL CALIFORNIA WITH UP TO
SEVERAL INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE MENDOCINO RANGE NORTHWARD. PW CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
PACIFIC NEAR HAWAII... CLEARLY EVIDENT ON EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST... WILL NEARLY ASSURE A SOAKING RAIN BUT IN A RELATIVELY
NARROW AREA OF THE WEST COAST. AS THAT INITIAL SYSTEM
WEAKENS/SHEARS ANOTHER SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH SHOULD BRING IN PRECIP
TO COASTAL WA FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EAST... AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODEST
PRECIP WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. WHETHER OR NOT THAT
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD... AND HOW MUCH... REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
/10-20F BELOW CLIMO/ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MON/D5 SPREADING
EASTWARD THEREAFTER. EVEN FLORIDA SHOULD TAKE A BRIEF BREAK FROM
ITS LONG STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS POST-FROPA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRACASSO

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Need to get that lead s/w out of the way faster so we can allow the follow up wave to dig more. If not the best baroclinic zone will be too far off shore. Could be Euro bias of holding on to the s/w too long in the southwest, hence the suppressed offshore system. GFS is not too far off from a moderate event.

You can bank on all models being too slow out of the southwest. This system should be GtG

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yup..I really believe that's where we're headed..4-8..or a 5-10 thing

I think that is what we have to hope for.

[ORH_wxman]

Inverted trough on the Euro...not very inspiring. Like a 1-2" deal verbatim.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Toast

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice to see the Euro start to bring it back.Def gonna snow this weekend. 4-8

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4-8, 5-10 may be a little agressive. For sure could happen.

Seasonal trend has been to swing nw late in the game, so well see. Could see this evolving into another event that gets revived just enough to bring some accums to the favored south and east area again.

Wait and see

[ORH_wxman]

Nice to see the Euro start to bring it back.Def gonna snow this weekend. 4-8

 

 

It doesn't look any better than the last couple runs...inverted trough light snow.

 

We'll hope that the northern stream amplifies enough to make it a moderate event like the GFS has shown.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Nice to see the Euro start to bring it back.Def gonna snow this weekend. 4-8

Ummmmmm......

[Damage In Tolland]

It doesn't look any better than the last couple runs...inverted trough light snow.

 

We'll hope that the northern stream amplifies enough to make it a moderate event like the GFS has shown.

the Euro has had flurries or nothing the last couple runs..or at least prior to 00z. It'll now continue to ramp up each run

 

GGEM also has snow

 

It won't be a blockbuster but who cares..We'll add on another light to moderate event.

[PWMan]

Well at least we're not worried about a potential cutter within days of the current event, as we were last time we had a big one here (Jan. 2-3). Can't be too greedy.

[SouthCoastMA]

Ummmmmm......

I'm getting dizzy from all the spin.

Wouldn't be surprised if this threat gives way to a bigger threat later next week.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It doesn't look any better than the last couple runs...inverted trough light snow.

 

We'll hope that the northern stream amplifies enough to make it a moderate event like the GFS has shown.

most of these pure coastal systems seem to end up as light to moderate events.  I think for now that's the safe play with this one.  The euro will evolve as it adjusts out of its own biases in the days ahead.

[weatherMA]

Ummmmmm......

Euro increased from 1.2" to 1.3".

 

So that means a 4-8 event is coming. Obviously.