A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

[CoastalWx]

Operative words.  The individual members are all over the place.  Some whiffs, some complete monsters and throw in huge timing differences and you have one word, chaos.

 

And the euro is like the GFS only 200 miles south. A Ray special.

[ORH_wxman]

Almost on the Euro...but no cigar. Still well worth tracking though.

[CoastalWx]

Almost on the Euro...but no cigar. Still well worth tracking though.

 

That lead low may be a PITA to deal with.

[ORH_wxman]

That lead low may be a PITA to deal with.

 

 

Yep, agreed. Hopefully it slows down in subsequent runs otherwise its going to take the baroclinic zone out to sea with it before the main s/w can do damage with it.

[jamesnichols1989]

I think we are in the normal lull with the models in this period, the day 4-7 period is almost always a misnomer.

[moneypitmike]

Euro keeps hopes in check.  Meh.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Wonder if we see that southern s/w scoot offshore fast enough to allow the follow up one to dig and amplify.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro Being 5-6 days out keeps hopes in check.  Meh.

 

Fixed.

[CT Rain]

Euro ensembles are more out to sea than 00z. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Sounds like ens mean delivers a light to moderate hit. I'd be very surprised if this doesn't give us snow this weekend

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro ensembles are more out to sea than 00z. 

Any signal there after, on/around the 13th?

[TalcottWx]

Me thinks this one comes back nw and will eventually be a big hit. A hunch, I think I'm feeling it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Me thinks this one comes back nw and will eventually be a big hit. A hunch, I think I'm feeling it.

Since the mean gets snow into SNE now..you'd have to think so.

[Sn0waddict]

Me thinks this one comes back nw and will eventually be a big hit. A hunch, I think I'm feeling it.

if the lead low stops tracking north, then yes. Otherwise this threat might be in trouble. Still plenty of time to figure that out though.

[weathafella]

Me thinks this one comes back nw and will eventually be a big hit. A hunch, I think I'm feeling it.

Like the feeling you had in funky's right before you called Joe Flakko's successful Hail Mary that Denver forgot to defend?

[CoastalWx]

It doesn't matter, if the lead low is real. If it is, meh to all.

[TalcottWx]

Like the feeling you had in funky's right before you called Joe Flakko's successful Hail Mary that Denver forgot to defend?

Oh yes something similar. It was only right. Living in Baltimore it seemed every sporting event ended unfavorably for me!

[Ginx snewx]

I agree with Jay, might be the lose it period only to come back full circle we have seen many times.

[HoarfrostHubb]

It could be the lose it and lose it, too. Let's see what overnight brings

[Ginx snewx]

It could be the lose it and lose it, too. Let's see what overnight brings

brilliant lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

brilliant lol

Riding the GFS for now. I still think we get sumthin

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

gefs has more misses then hits...certainly has trended away from a nuke. but its not even haltime yet. we are still in this thing.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

another weird solution, but its there. it cant figure out to close off the mids or not.

[mahk_webstah]

another weird solution, but its there. it cant figure out to close off the mids or not.

there in a good way for us all?  nyc thread described it as a hit for NE/NNE

[SouthCoastMA]

That lead vort needs to slow down or just weaken altogether. Still an eternity left

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

there in a good way for us all?  nyc thread described it as a hit for NE/NNE

 

i mean...verbatim, its a pretty good hit from nyc to bos. kinda has a norlun esque look to it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

That lead vort needs to slow down or just weaken altogether. Still an eternity left

 

yea if it slows down or the northern one speeds up, its a back to a bomb.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think today is the day we start seeing the correctiion to the nw on the Euro

[Damage In Tolland]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi  5h

Latest GFS has similar look to April 1982 blizzard in the northeast. current run on top, April storm below pic.twitter.com/swfhPbz6lt

[ORH_wxman]

The ECMWF ensmebles have trended considerably southeast to where now more runs are realtive misses than hits for Feb 9-10. More of an inverted trough look. The GEFS havebeen more bullish.

 

We'll need to start seeing a correction back toward the larger solutions within the next 12-24 hours on the ECWMF suite if we are to gain confidence in this system.