A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

[Ginx snewx]

And then there was the 06z gfs to squash all concerns lol.

My concerns were lessened a bit to see that the Euro mean was nw of the operational and looked as if it was just southeast of the benchmark.

Funny how we are talking about a storm that is 6 days away when we have a system coming tomorrow that will bring 12" of snow for some.

talking winter is great

[HoarfrostHubb]

talking winter is great

Would rather talk high dews

 

As RunAwAyIceCuBe mentioned, a good learning situation here for me... let's see if I retain any knowledge though...lol

[CoastalWx]

LOL, what a weird evolution of the GFS. Looks like a few ensembles members though.

[CoastalWx]

LOL, inv trough Miller B.

[CoastalWx]

Good God what on Earth? LOL.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

It does look like a few gefs members...such a long ways away im gonna refrain from commenting on op runs after a certain poster went for the kill on me last night.

[dryslot]

That evolution would be a 1st

[ORH_wxman]

Good God what on Earth? LOL.

 

Not unheard of but a strange setup. February 14, 1962 had that setup more or less.

 

 

Regardless, not much to say about it other than its in the envelope of solutions...though from a mesoscale aspect that one was kind of strange.

[Baroclinic Zone]

LOL, what a weird evolution of the GFS. Looks like a few ensembles members though.

 

I think the surface reflection would be further SE verbatim, off the VA coast.  JMO.

[Damage In Tolland]

Tolleris says no snow or storms east of Miss River between Feb 10-20. So it sounds like the 13th is off the table

[CoastalWx]

Not unheard of but a strange setup. February 14, 1962 had that setup more or less.

 

 

Regardless, not much to say about it other than its in the envelope of solutions...though from a mesoscale aspect that one was kind of strange.

 

Yeah was just amusing to look at. Pretty dynamic bomb.

[CoastalWx]

Tolleris says no snow or storms east of Miss River between Feb 10-20. So it sounds like the 13th is off the table

 

Eh, not sure about that.

[Zeus]

Tolleris says no snow or storms east of Miss River between Feb 10-20. So it sounds like the 13th is off the table

 

This post definitely belongs in the technical discussion thread. Just like you.

[Ginx snewx]

That evolution would be a 1st

Feb 69?

[Ginx snewx]

Boston would get over two feet of paste. Negative 8h anamolies off the hook. I would love to see that evolution, after last years retro bomb it's good to get stuff that's not your basic swfe. Well at least we won't have to read pages of semantics anyways.

[OKpowdah]

lol I was waiting for this solution to show up. 1) because some of the ensemble members pointed to it, but it was only a matter of time before the GFS said, "hey I wonder what happens if I try dropping this trough in early?" and commence sloppy phase before the southern vort can actually get consolidated.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Geez, how much total precip did the GFS just dump on BOS for Sun/Mon?  3"?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Doesnt look like tomorrows event has much an affect on this. Seems like its all about the pv in se canada and the multiple sw diving in the back door of the trough. this one is starting to look less like a dream...but nightmares may still occur.

[OKpowdah]

6z GFS reminds me of Jan 27, 2011 with the wicked small half wavelength negatively tilted up the coast

[Ginx snewx]

Geez, how much total precip did the GFS just dump on BOS for Sun/Mon?  3"?

Would be awesome

[Ginx snewx]

6z GFS reminds me of Jan 27, 2011 with the wicked small half wavelength negatively tilted up the coast

Thought the same, great runs , hopefully Euro Ens are correct, another snowstorm .

[dryslot]

Feb 69?

 

Not really, That one stalled and kind of did a fujiwara in the GOM

[Ginx snewx]

Not really, That one stalled and kind of did a fujiwara in the GOM

69 south, lol. The gridded gFS data gives me 20+ on my birthday. I want that here.

[Ginx snewx]

GriddedGFS is 30 + inches for most of CNE in the next 7 days. Pure porn

[CoastalWx]

FWIW, GEFS don't look all that much different than the op in a relative sense.

[wxeyeNH]

Its a "we want more" world.

But tomorrows event is a lock, its just the suicidal weenies who are biting their nails over an all snow solution vs 90% SN. Its a highly delicate situation.

I like cool aspects of this potential bomb. Lots of moving pieces and a good one to learn from, no matter the outcome.

One thing I love and that is having a snowstorm and knowing more potentials lined up right behind it.  Much better than having a snow event and then seeing a torching right after. 

[weathafella]

And even weak sister CMC is trying.

[free_man]

Both GGEM and NOGAPS have pretty much nothing.  

[CoastalWx]

Both GGEM and NOGAPS have pretty much nothing.  

 

Both pieces of crap with day 6 solutions.

[Baroclinic Zone]

FWIW, GEFS don't look all that much different than the op in a relative sense.

Operative words.  The individual members are all over the place.  Some whiffs, some complete monsters and throw in huge timing differences and you have one word, chaos.