A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

[weathafella]

Nice hit on the 00z Euro for Sunday into Monday. Not as good as yesterday..but decent

Not to quibble but the euro would be a light to moderate event verbatim. However euro ensembles are actually considerably further west so I think the signal is pretty good. Might was well lock the 6Z gfs and it's feet of snow..lol.

[codfishsnowman]

6z gfs gets the award for weenie run of the year snow totals threw 384 and most is in the next 10 days

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020406&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=384

no death valley middle finger lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Not to quibble but the euro would be a light to moderate event verbatim. However euro ensembles are actually considerably further west so I think the signal is pretty good. Might was well lock the 6Z gfs and it's feet of snow..lol.

Well yeah...that's why i said decent.  Not the BECS it had yesterday..

[CoastalWx]

The solutions from a whiff to inside runner are still on the table.

[moneypitmike]

The GFS was WAY early showing the Wednesday event.  If only the 06z run were hitting it right.......

 

Let's enjoy tomorrow first, though.

[powderfreak]

Worried a week out? Good luck.

 

 

Long way to go.

 

 

The solutions from a whiff to inside runner are still on the table.

 

Did you program an auto-bot to post these once an hour? 4am, 5am, 6am  Haha. 

 

We are again praying for some coastal hugger on this one.  Way too far out to get invested.  I bit on this past system too early thinking it was the one to bring warning snows, but probably need a good 3 more days to get a feel for this next one.

[weathafella]

Well yeah...that's why i said decent.  Not the BECS it had yesterday..

It's not decent verbatim, It wouldn't close schools or really stop anything based on its exact depiction, It's way.,way east. But it's a moot point and as mentioned the ensembles are well west of the op.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The solutions from a whiff to inside runner are still on the table.

I think the inside runner option is least likely?

It could also be a sheared out mess that gives mood snow to ACK

[TalcottWx]

The solutions from a whiff to inside runner are still on the table.

haven't had the chance to look at anything this am due to a 6am run.. but seemed last night's ensembles favored a track closer to the coast. Not anywhere near a consensus by any means but at this long range I'm leaning towards a track closer to the coast. Will look at everything today after breakfast. Gotta defrost first.

[CoastalWx]

I think the inside runner option is least likely?

It could also be a sheared out mess that gives mood snow to ACK

 

It's really too early to say. I guess maybe a cutter is least likely, but just as equal to me is a track into SNE vs outside the benchmark.

[bboughton]

[CoastalWx]

Just hold that solution for 150 more hrs, that's all.

[dryslot]

And close it off 50-75 miles north

[weathafella]

I like this depiction.

[bch2014]

What do people think about the 2/13 system?

[CoastalWx]

What do people think about the 2/13 system?

 

I think it's far away....lol.

[dryslot]

What do people think about the 2/13 system?

 

Wrong thread

[weathafella]

Re 2/10: GEFS and euro ensembles are still reasonably bullish on a good event.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I think the 06z GFS just tore a hole in the atmosphere.  Damn, that's a ludicrous solution.

[ORH_wxman]

ECMWF ensembles have shifted decently east in the latest mean...however, there is still considerable spread to the west. The next 36-48 hours will probably begin to narrow down the goalposts.

 

The ECWMF spaghetti plots had two clusters...one cluster was pretty much a miss and then another tight cluster of huge hits. The OP run was almost in between these two strangely enough...hardly any other members were in the same slot as the OP run. We'll see if one of these clusters becomes more favor over the next 1-2 days.

[Damage In Tolland]

What's making the possibility of a total miss? Progressive flow?

[CoastalWx]

You can see it well at 500mb too. There are some flat, progressive members that are suppressed and then some members that really dig a trough with the help of another s/w diving south through the great lakes and tugging the low closer to the coast.

[Ginx snewx]

35-40 inches again in 15 days on the GFS, just keeping count, better extend this title

[dryslot]

You can see it well at 500mb too. There are some flat, progressive members that are suppressed and then some members that really dig a trough with the help of another s/w diving south through the great lakes and tugging the low closer to the coast.

 

It certainly was a better look at H5 on the 06z run then the 0z run of the GFS as it was getting compressed and sheared until it reached the east coast at 0z

[Ginx snewx]

This one won't be decided until Friday

[dryslot]

This one won't be decided until Friday

 

Even then i don't think you could lock it being as complex as this is going to be

[Baroclinic Zone]

35-40 inches again in 15 days on the GFS, just keeping count, better extend this title

 

Looked like about 35" of that fell this upcoming weekend imby.  LOL.  I just peeked at the QPF for giggles and it was 2"+ for that system alone.

[mahk_webstah]

I like this depiction.

image.jpg

just a slight negative tilt.  What does a negative tilt like that do?  Does it mean a stall and close off and does it throw precip way way back inland with deformation?

[Chrisrotary12]

And then there was the 06z gfs to squash all concerns lol.

 

My concerns were lessened a bit to see that the Euro mean was nw of the operational and looked as if it was just southeast of the benchmark.

 

Funny how we are talking about a storm that is 6 days away when we have a system coming tomorrow that will bring 12" of snow for some.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

And then there was the 06z gfs to squash all concerns lol.

My concerns were lessened a bit to see that the Euro mean was nw of the operational and looked as if it was just southeast of the benchmark.

Funny how we are talking about a storm that is 6 days away when we have a system coming tomorrow that will bring 12" of snow for some.

Its a "we want more" world.

But tomorrows event is a lock, its just the suicidal weenies who are biting their nails over an all snow solution vs 90% SN. Its a highly delicate situation.

I like cool aspects of this potential bomb. Lots of moving pieces and a good one to learn from, no matter the outcome.