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A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Like i said, it got going later. Wasnt impressive traversing across the country to begin with. Doesnt have that look til it got to the coast.

No. The system does not occlude so we end up with a bigger storm that's less fraught with issues. I'd take that depiction in a moment...it's a wind whipped blizzard.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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No. The system does not occlude so we end up with a bigger storm that's less fraught with issues. I'd take that depiction in a moment...it's a wind whipped blizzard.

I don't look at models much these days, but as soon as he said that it got going late, my eyes lit up.

 

Like I said earlier, I want the GFS' depiction.

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
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I feel for earthlight in the NYC thread. I don't know how he does it.

This is still a huge it and glad the signal is still on all important guidance.

5 different opinions on the same model run lol.

Another day down where the signal remains. That's what's key here. Just keep the signal for a few more days, them start to nail it down.

We should start to see some sort of consensus after this next storm finishes up. Thursday will be 3+ days until start time, so we will see where we are then.

Obviously has a chance to define an already above average winter

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Thats all i was saying....kinda nothing at first. Confluence crushes the sw out west, compresses it to death. Then, explosion. Im not good enough to wonder if thats riding the fine line there.

At any rate. Long long time to go. Many solutions ahead.

 

 

It looked nothing like 18z, But we are probably going see several more different solutions, With as complex as this one is, It won't get sorted out until later this week

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free_man

free_man

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I'm starting to get worried that the Monday system is going to pass us to the southeast and we will be left to sit and watch as a beautiful 980 mb monster with an "eye" like feature drifts off into the north Atlantic.

 

Wouldn't that just suck.

Fitting.  Heavy caution flags for the 2/9-2/10 period, no change there.

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cja1987

cja1987

Posted
Posted

I'm starting to get worried that the Monday system is going to pass us to the southeast and we will be left to sit and watch as a beautiful 980 mb monster with an "eye" like feature drifts off into the north Atlantic.

 

Wouldn't that just suck.

 

I'm not too worried about 2/9-10 quite yet.

 

The hot off the press 00Z GEFS are still all over the place.

 

Take hr 138, 18Z Sunday. Some members are wide right with a flat fish "storm" (storm used loosely) off the mid Atlantic while a member or 2 wants to drive a sub 990 mb primary surface low into freakin Montreal.

I'm a little concerned that the OP Euro is wide right but I'm not throwing in the towel until we see some semblance of run to run consistency with any model and some attempt at clustering in GEFS land.

 

If more of the ens members showed a major bomb missing wide right, Id be more concerned but the ones that miss tend to be flat out at sea. That tells me models are still struggling with handling the basic dynamics here we are not yet locked onto a storm with uncertain track.

 

I think we see a more coherent "storm" signal start to emerge in the next few days and I think this comes back to the benchmark or closer. Call me crazy but we are at a range where models can temporarily loose systems only to bring em back. Hold your meltdowns, less than 24 h ago 18Z GFS was over CHH with P-type issues. Nothing is off the table yet, lets get through Wed first!

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